全球地表(海表)前期温度与中国及华中地区夏季降水的关联

用SVD方法分析了1月全球地表(海表)温度与中国及华中区域夏季降水场的关系,分析结果表明:1月热带地区地表(海表)温度与夏季长江中游降水关系最好,呈正相关。与新疆西北部、青海东北部、长江上游有弱的正相关,与山东大部分地区、浙江沿海地区有弱的负相关。前期热带海洋海表温度偏高,可能预示长江中游夏季降水偏多,反之亦然。由于分析的范围为全球的陆面和海面,因而其关联范围较已有成果有很大的扩展,不仅仅为热带西太平洋、印度洋和南海,而是整个热带地区,包括热带的海洋和陆地。预报信号也提前了4个月,可为预测长江中游夏季降水提供更长时效的参考和依据。     

ENVELOPE OF GREEN'S FUNCTION FOR STRUCTURAL RESPONSE WITH SLIGHTLY DETUNED VIBRATION ABSORBERS

Explicit forms of the modal parameters and the envelope of the Green's function for transient response of main structures equipped with vibration absorbers are derived using a perturbation technique and assuming that the natural frequency of the absorber is slightly detuned from that of the main structure. Applying these perturbation solutions, the influence of the absorber parameters on the dynamic response of main structures is investigated and the ratio of the envelope for the main mass with absorber to that without absorber is constructed to provide insight to evaluate the effectiveness of the absorber to diminish the vibrations of main structures.     

Ensemble prediction experiments using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

Two methods for initialization of ensemble forecasts are compared, namely, singular vector (SV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). The comparison is done for forecast lengths of up to 10 days with a three-level quasi-geostrophic (QG) atmospheric model in a perfect model scenario. Ten cases are randomly selected from 1982/1983 winter to 1993/1994 winter (from December to the following February). Anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is adopted as a tool to measure the quality of the predicted ensembles on the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height. The results show that the forecast quality of ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP is higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range, based on the occurrence of weather regime transitions in Northern Hemisphere after about four days. Besides, the reliability of ensemble forecasts is evaluated by the Rank Histograms. The above conclusions confirm and extend those reached earlier by the authors, which stated that the introduction of CNOP improves the forecast skill under the condition that the analysis error belongs to a kind of fast-growing error by using a barotropic QG model. Supported by Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX3-SW-230), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40675030, 40633016)     

全球电离层TEC起伏特性分析

利用全球电离层TEC地图（GIMs）数据,在已经建立TEC气候学模式的基础上,计算了1998年以来固定UT时间的全球TEC起伏指数σ_DGEC．采用偏相关分析方法对σ_DGEC与太阳活动（F107指数）及其起伏（dF107）、地磁活动（Ap指数）、季节变化因子（太阳偏置角）等因素,以及上述因素的非线性组合等的相关性进行分析,发现σ_DGEC与F107、Ap指数具有最强的相关性,与F107指数和半年变化因子的交叉项F107×S、F107指数的二次方具有较好的相关性,同时,与F107指数与年变化因子的交叉项F107×A及F107扰动指数偏离值（dF107）的二次方也具有一定的相关性．据此,以这些因子作为驱动量,建立了σ_DGEC的多元回归模型．鉴于σ_DGEC反映全球范围内电离层TEC起伏的平均特性,并与太阳活动F107指数、地磁活动Ap指数具有良好的相关性,为此我们建议,将全球TEC相对起伏指数σ_DGEC作为描述全球电离层扰动状态及电离层天气特征的一个新参量．     

Hansen系数递推的效率

探讨了偏心率函数的递推方法的效率, 给出了一种成批递推方法, 其计算效率明显优于直接计算方法, 而且递推是正向的. 采用该成批递推方法递推时, 偏心率函数的量级从小到大变化, 可以保证递推的精度.     

氮饥饿细基江蓠繁枝变型和孔石莼氨氮的吸收动力学特征

以氮饥饿海藻为材料,采用多瓶法和干扰法相结合的技术,测定两种海藻在不同起始浓度下不同时间间隔内的NH₄+吸收率,对不同阶段的吸收率进行非线性回归分析,结果表明它们均符合饱和吸收动力学特征.最大吸收率和半饱和常数均随着吸收时间的延长而降低.在整个吸收过程中,吸收曲线的初始斜率变化不大,这表明在低浓度下的吸收率不受短时间快吸收的影响而保持相对的稳定.同时两种海藻相比,在相应时间内的吸收动力学参数不同,孔石莼的最大吸收率、半饱和常数和初始斜率均大于细基江蓠繁枝变型.处于氮饥饿状态的两种海藻对NH₄+-N的吸收存在以下3个时相:(1)起始短期的快吸收阶段;(2)内部营养盐浓度控制的吸收阶段;(3)外界营养盐浓度控制的吸收阶段.     

Application of Normalized Full Gradient Method to Self Potential (SP) Data

Recently, Normalized Full Gradient (NFG) method has widespread applications to natural potential fields, especially in gravity and magnetic. In this study, usage of NFG in Self-Potential (SP) data evaluation is tested. Results are compared to other SP interpretation methods. The NFG method is applied to synthetic and field SP data. As a consequence of application of the method to the anomalies of spherical, cylindrical and vertical sheet models, whose theoretical structures are explicit, the structures were found very close to their actual locations. In order to see the capability of the method in detecting the number of sources, NFG method was applied to different spherical models at different depths and locations. The least-squares inverse solution was applied to the same models and NFG method was found more powerful in detecting model structure. Sensitivity of NFG method for application to noisy data is also tested. An anomaly is generated by adding a random noise to two close sphere SP anomalies. The method seems to work for the two close spheres at high S/N ratio. Then, NFG method was applied to two field examples. The first one is the cross section taken from the SP anomaly map of the Ergani-Süleymanköy (Turkey) copper mine. The depth of the mineral deposit at that site was found about 38 m from the ground level. This result is well matched to previous studies. NFG was also applied to SP data from Seferihisar Izmir (Western Turkey) geothermal field and the location of the point source was determined. The field data of this site have already been modeled by the thermoelectric source (coupling) solution method. When these two methods are compared, they seem to support each other. It is concluded that the NFG method works perfectly when the structure model is simple. It is observed that natural potential sources close to earth’s surface are identified by the method more accurately at greater harmonics, while deep sources are identified at lesser harmonics. It produces reasonable results for noisy multi-source models than the other parameter identification methods (inverse solution, power spectrum, etc.).     

南海北部沿岸海洋站的假潮

收集和分析了南海北部沿岸15个海洋站所在港湾发生假潮的资料，并对其中较大振幅的典型假潮个例，进行了港湾基态自然周期分析和假潮振动的频谱分析。研究发现，假潮最大振幅振动多发生在天文潮的高潮或低潮期间；根据海湾地形尺度用梅立恩（Merian）公式计算得出的海湾基态自然周期；和根据资料曲线估计得出的假潮周期，以及功率谱分析得出的周期，三者非常接近。从本文研究所得结果来看，这些海湾的较大振幅假潮多发生在春、夏季，且都和风速、风向以及气压的剧烈变化有关。这些大气扰动在春天多为冷空气南下，在夏季多为热带气旋活动。研究认为，假潮的发生很可能是大气振动通过外海表面波作为中间机制，与港湾自由态振动之间产生耦合共振的结果。     

瞬变电磁波场转换算法的改进

地球物理电磁场数据与虚拟地震波场数据之间存在数学上的等效转换关系,通过这种等效转换,可有效提高地球物理电磁法对地下目标体分界面的辨识度.但是这种转换在数学上属于不适定问题,可采用奇异值分解法处理.由于大奇异值控制计算矩阵的主要信息,小的奇异值控制计算矩阵的次要信息,传统的截断奇异值分解法只保留大奇异值,而忽略小的奇异值,导致数值解不够精确.本文提出一种新的修正方案——改进截断奇异值法,采用岭估计方法计算由小的奇异值引起的虚拟波场.模型计算结果表明：改进截断奇异值法比传统的奇异值分解法得到的波场转换结果更好,对某煤矿采空区探测数据进行了处理,成功分辨出采空区分界面.     

基于奇异谱分析的重磁位场分离方法

奇异谱分析是一种近年兴起的时间序列分析方法,它利用降秩原理实现信号分离.该方法将数据空间投影到不同特征的子空间中,并用奇异值来表征这些子空间的性质,最后通过截取奇异值实现数据的重构.重磁位场分离可以看成一种多信号叠加的分离问题.不同特征的重磁异常具有不同特征的奇异谱,这是奇异谱分析用于解决位场分离问题的应用基础.本文通过建立理论模型,分析重磁异常的奇异谱特征,得出适用于重磁位场分离的最优参数选择方法,并与传统方法进行比较.对比发现,无论是横向叠加模型、垂向叠加模型还是斜向叠加模型,奇异谱分析都具有很好的分离效果.最后,将奇异谱分析用于鄂东南某矿区的重力资料处理中,实现弱异常的识别和分离.