计算样本相似性在油气预测中的应用

介绍了计算样本相似性方法在油气预测中的应用的基本原理和技术。提出了利用参数的显著性进行参数优化和加权的方法。该方法简单、实用，并在塔北某区的应用取得了满意结果。由此证明了该方法的有效性及在综合信息预测工作中进行参数优化和加权工作的重要性。     

变差函数参数的计算

为了求出地质统计学中变差函数理论模型的参数，首先把相应模型化成线性函数的形式，多面手应用线性方程组非负解的理论计算出它的参数。     

Fuzzy set approaches to classification of rock masses

Rock mass classification is analogous to multi-feature pattern recognition problem. The objective is to assign a rock mass to one of the pre-defined classes using a given set of criteria. This process involves a number of subjective uncertainties stemming from: (a) qualitative (linguistic) criteria; (b) sharp class boundaries; (c) fixed rating (or weight) scales; and (d) variable input reliability. Fuzzy set theory enables a soft approach to account for these uncertainties by allowing the expert to participate in this process in several ways. Hence, this study was designed to investigate the earlier fuzzy rock mass classification attempts and to devise improved methodologies to utilize the theory more accurately and efficiently. As in the earlier studies, the Rock Mass Rating (RMR) system was adopted as a reference conventional classification system because of its simple linear aggregation.

The proposed classification approach is based on the concept of partial fuzzy sets representing the variable importance or recognition power of each criterion in the universal domain of rock mass quality. The method enables one to evaluate rock mass quality using any set of criteria, and it is easy to implement. To reduce uncertainties due to project- and lithology-dependent variations, partial membership functions were formulated considering shallow (<200 m) tunneling in granitic rock masses. This facilitated a detailed expression of the variations in the classification power of each criterion along the corresponding universal domains. The binary relationship tables generated using these functions were processed not to derive a single class but rather to plot criterion contribution trends (stacked area graphs) and belief surface contours, which proved to be very satisfactory in difficult decision situations. Four input scenarios were selected to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach in different situations and with reference to the earlier approaches.     

基于SuperMap的图形处理技术

本文首先阐述了SuperMap DeskPro的基本功能，然后对利用SuperMap DeskPro进行常规图形处理的技巧进行了详细介绍，具体包括地图配准、地图拼接、数据集重新整合、对象标注、文本数据集到属性字段的转换和地图格网生成。通过这些技巧的运用，可以有效提高数据的处理能力。     

Penny-shaped fractures revisited

All methods of seismic characterization of fractured reservoirs are based on effective media theories that relate geometrical and material properties of fractures and surrounding rock to the effective stiffnesses. In exploration seismology, the first-order theory of Hudson is the most popular. It describes the effective model caused by the presence of a single set of thin, aligned vertical fractures in otherwise isotropic rock. This model is known to be transversely isotropic with a horizontal symmetry axis (HTI). Following the theory, one can invert the effective anisotropy for the crack density and type of fluid infill of fractures, the quantities of great importance for reservoir appraisal and management.Here I compute effective media numerically using the finite element method. I deliberately construct models that contain a single set of vertical, ellipsoidal, non-intersecting and non-interconnected fractures to check validity of the first-order Hudson’s theory and establish the limits of its applicability. Contrary to conventional wisdom that Hudson’s results are accurate up to crack density e ≈ 0.1, I show that they consistently overestimate the magnitudes of all effective anisotropic coefficients ε^(V), δ^(V), and γ^(V). Accuracy of theoretically derived anisotropy depends on the type of fluid infill and typically deteriorates as e grows. While the theory gives | ε^(V)|, |δ^(V)|, |γ^(V)| and close to the upper bound of the corresponding numerically obtained values for randomly distributed liquid-filled fractures, theoretical predictions of ε^(V), δ^(V) are not supported by numerical computations when the cracks are dry. This happens primarily because the first-order Hudson’s theory makes no attempt to account for fracture interaction which contributes to the final result much stronger for gas- than for liquid-filled cracks. I find that Mori-Tanaka’s theory is superior to Hudson’s for all examined crack densities and both types of fluid infill.The paper was presented at the 11th International Workshop on Seismic Anisotropy (11IWSA) held in St. John’s, Canada in 2004.     

浙江省人口健康脆弱性评估及影响因素分析

运用集对分析法从敏感性和应对性2个方面对浙江省11个地市的人口健康脆弱性进行评估。研究表明:①从敏感性和应对性2个维度对城市人口健康脆弱性进行评估的方法具有一定可靠性,但在突发大型流行性病毒感染疫情的情境下仍需进一步完善;②各地市脆弱性指数排名与敏感性指数保持较高一致性,而与应对性指数则表现出异质性和随机性,认为降低敏感性是降低城市人口健康脆弱性指数的关键;③城市人口健康脆弱性评价还应该增加城市对大型突发公共卫生事件的敏感性和应对能力的考量,相应的评估方法和模型仍有待进一步研究。     

土耳其卡赞天然碱溶采对接井堵井原因分析及修复

土耳其卡赞天然碱矿由于地质条件复杂,首采层不溶物含量高,矿层倾角大,在商业开采过程中易发生堵井事故。本文以P078水平对接井组为例,介绍了其施工工艺和注采井史,分析了引起井组堵塞的原因。遵循“先易后难、降低风险、控制成本”的原则,先后进行了直井单井循环、固井泵车压井和循环泥浆清理井底等各种尝试,最后提出了分支侧钻重新连通的技术方案,并成功修复了溶采通道,恢复了井组的正常生产。并在钻井施工组织、修井设计与施工和溶采作业等方面提出了建议。该技术对类似故障井组的修复具有一定的指导作用和借鉴意义。     

应用逼近理想解法综合评价区域水资源承载能力

在多目标决策中,基于传统的逼近于理想解的技术,根据区域水资源承载能力的强与弱和待评价的对象(评价方案)的不理想(负理想)与理想(劣与优)这些典型的模糊概念,提出了基于模糊集合的逼近理想解法(TOPSISFS),并应用于区域水资源承载能力的综合评价中。TOPSISFS与投影寻踪模型法(PP法)、理想区间法(MODMIIM)相比,简单、有效。TOPSISFS可广泛应用于多目标决策中。     

Reconstructing fluvial bar surfaces from compound cross‐strata and the interpretation of bar accretion direction in large river deposits

The interpretation of fluvial styles from the rock record is based for a significant part on the identification of different types of fluvial bars, characterized by the geometric relationship between structures indicative of palaeocurrent and surfaces interpreted as indicative of bar form and bar accretion direction. These surfaces of bar accretion are the boundaries of flood‐related bar increment elements, which are typically less abundant in outcrops than what would be desirable, particularly in large river deposits in which each flood mobilizes large volumes of sediment, causing flood‐increment boundary surfaces to be widely spaced. Cross‐strata set boundaries, on the other hand, are abundant and indirectly reflect the process of unit bar accretion, inclined due to the combined effect of the unit bar surface inclination and the individual bedform climbing angle, in turn controlled by changes in flow structure caused by local bar‐scale morphology. This work presents a new method to deduce the geometry of unit bar surfaces from measured pairs of cross‐strata and cross‐strata set boundaries. The method can be used in the absence of abundant flood‐increment bounding surfaces; the study of real cases shows that, for both downstream and laterally accreting bars, the reconstructed planes are very similar to measured bar increment surfaces.     

基于ANUSPLIN的京津冀区域逐日气温格点数据集建立方法研究

为建立一个高精度、高空间分辨率的逐日气温格点数据集,满足公共气象服务对于精确信息及实时信息的需要,利用2018年6—8月京津冀区域以及临近省区共3 974个国家级及区域气象观测站质控后的逐日气温资料,采用ANUSPLIN软件对逐日气温数据进行空间内插,得到了京津冀区域逐日气温格点数据集(0.01°×0.01°),并分别利用反距离权重插值法、普通克里金插值法、样条函数法对逐日气温数据进行空间插值,采用相关系数(Corr)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、平均相对误差(MRE)等作为评估指标来检验插值精度。结果表明:1) ANUSPLIN软件满足了空间插值对精度及曲面平滑度的要求,能直观体现京津冀区域气温由北向南递增的空间分布特征; 2) 4种插值方法中,基于ANUSPLIN软件的插值结果最优,相关系数平均达0.97,其样本误差在1℃之内占比为90.59%,MAE为0.46℃,MRE为1.81%; 3)插值误差较大的区域位于冀北高原、燕山丘陵及太行山脉一带,高海拔、低站点密度等是造成插值误差的主要原因。基于ANUSPLIN插值方法建立的逐日气温格点数据集具有分辨率高、空间插值误差小的优势,ANUSPLIN对气温的空间分布具有较好的预测能力。