中国东部陆架边缘海海洋物理环境演变及其环境效应

中国东部陆架边缘海是支撑中华民族伟大复兴的经济海域,其重要的战略地位及经济贡献对国家发展至关重要。对海洋环境和生物资源的了解有利于国家的根本利益,有利于加快创建和谐社会的宏伟目标,因而对该海域的深入研究是当前面临的迫切任务。国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）项目“中国东部陆架边缘海海洋物理环境演变及其环境效应”拟对中国东部陆架边缘海这样一个层化结构多变、多种运动形态耦合的复杂动力学系统中的物理环境的演变及其环境效应进行深入研究,进而揭示海洋环境演变规律,为国防安全、渔业生产等提供科学支持;同时对该项目研究的目的、科学意义、关键科学问题及预期目标等进行了简要介绍。     

中国近海海平面变化趋势的对比分析

本文分析了近40年的中国近海验潮站资料海表面高度的线性变化趋势,并与卫星高度计资料进行了对比。通过对验潮站资料的分析发现,中国海域无论是近40年(1970~2013年)、还是近20年(1993~2013年)海平面均显著上升。各海区近20年的海平面上升有加速的趋势,且各时段上升速率大于全球平均海平面上升率。但是,受到海平面的年际和年代际变化的影响,近10年海平面上升趋势放缓。同时,本文也分析了不同季节海平面变化的趋势,北部海域秋季最大,冬季最小;南海海域春季最大,秋季最小。通过AVISO资料和验潮站资料的对比可以发现,AVISO资料在描述近20年海平面变化的线性趋势上与验潮站资料接近,较大的差异主要是由验潮站地表发生升降引起的。同时,通过对比也发现了用验潮站资料估算海域平均的海平面高度变化会有一定的误差,在黄海、渤海、东海海域验潮站估计的数值偏高,而在南海海域则偏低。     

三沙湾海岸线时空演变

海岸带是海陆之间的过渡区域,是人类活动和经济发展较为活跃的地区。海岸线时空演变研究对海岸带资源开发与保护有重要意义,但国内外对三沙湾海岸线时空演变研究较少。本文基于25 a的卫星遥感资料,解译出4个时相的三沙湾海岸线,定量分析海岸线变化趋势,并研究海岸线演变的主要因素。研究表明,25 a的三沙湾海岸线总体长度呈增长趋势：1988-1996年岸线总长度变化不大;2003年较1996年增加约6 947 m、增长约11.5%;2003-2013年岸线总长度增加较为明显,2013年较2003年增加约24 128 m、增长约39.6%,其增速约为1996-2003的3.4倍。砂质岸线长度基本稳定,基岩和泥质岸线长度有所减少,人工岸线在逐年增加,这主要是滩地围垦、港口建设和海岸人工改造等人为因素造成的。     

三沙市南海诸岛底栖海藻区系调查及其与其它相关区系的比较分析

我国海岸线绵长,所属岛屿众多,除了台湾岛和海南岛两个大岛外,还有数以千计的中小沿海岛屿及众多的珊瑚岛,如我国三沙市的南海诸岛—西沙群岛、南沙群岛、东沙群岛和中沙群岛等。根据多年来我国科研人员在该海区的调查研究,对我国三沙市南海诸岛海区的海藻区系进行初步的植物地理学研究,以探讨我国该海域海藻区系的温度性质,以及与邻近海区海藻区系的关系。研究结果表明,我国三沙市南海诸岛底栖海藻区系与北太平洋西部海藻相同种数最多的是区系性质为热带性的南海南区,因此海藻区系的温度性质具有很明显的热带性。另外,三沙市南海诸岛海藻区系与印度洋海藻区系有很多共同成分,两地共有种数高达184种,为南海诸岛海藻总数的63%,进一步证明我国三沙市南海诸岛区系属于暖水性印度—西太平洋区,印—马亚区。     

First steps towards a quota allocation system in the Indian Ocean

In response to recommendations made by a recent performance review, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC) is attempting to develop a quota allocation system (QAS) for management of the tuna and tuna-like species of the Indian Ocean. As “first-movers” in the process, Indonesia, the Seychelles, the European Union, Iran, and the Republic of Korea made contrasting proposals to the IOTC in March 2011 on possible QAS form and structure. Structure (the factors to be taken into account in determining allocation) is critical as it will determine on a long term basis the share accruing to each IOTC member state of the estimated USD 2-3 billion worth of tuna caught in the Indian Ocean each year. This article records and discusses the content of these first steps towards QAS formulation by placing them in the context of rights-based management as applied to the offshore areas falling under tuna RFMO management. The options proposed in March (which the IOTC is still considering) all have a similar architecture but result in sharply divergent allocation outcomes. Despite the sophistication of some of the proposals, the recent IOTC review suggests that the regulatory and management capacity of the IOTC does not match the science and enforcement requirements appropriate to these recent proposals. Perhaps efforts to improve IOTC performance need to be made in parallel with discussions on QAS definition and implementation. To further advance the debate and also concretely demonstrate likely economic outcomes, the article provides indicative monetary valuations of quota allocations proposed. It uses a range of potential historical reference periods (5, 10, 15, and 20 years).     

The first network of marine protected areas (MPAs) in the high seas: The process, the challenges and where next

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly being established to protect and rebuild coastal and marine ecosystems. However, while the high seas are increasingly subject to exploitation, globally few MPAs exist in areas beyond national jurisdiction. In 2010 a substantial step forward was made in the protection of high seas ecosystems with 286,200 km² of the North-East Atlantic established as six MPAs. Here a summary is presented of how the world's first network of high seas marine protected areas was created under the OSPAR Convention, the main challenges and a series of key lessons learned, aiming to highlight approaches that also may be effective for similar efforts in the future. It is concluded that the designation of these six MPAs is just the start of the process and to achieve ecological coherence and representativity in the North-East Atlantic, the network will have to be complemented over time by additional MPA sites.     

Future projection of East China Sea temperature by dynamic downscaling of the IPCC_AR4 CCSM3 model result

Future temperature distributions of the marginal Chinese seas are studied by dynamic downscaling of global CCSM3 IPCC_AR4 scenario runs.Different forcing fields from 2080-2099 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) B1,A1,and A2 to 1980-1999 20C3M are averaged and superimposed on CORE2 and SODA2.2.4 data to force high-resolution regional future simulations using the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS).Volume transport increments in downscaling simulation support the CCSM3 result that with a weakening subtropical gyre circulation,the Kuroshio Current in the East China Sea(ECS) is possibly strengthened under the global warming scheme.This mostly relates to local wind change,whereby the summer monsoon is strengthened and winter monsoon weakened.Future temperature fluxes and their seasonal variations are larger than in the CCSM3 result.Downscaling 100 years’ temperature increments are comparable to the CCSM3,with a minimum in B1 scenario of 1.2-2.0°C and a maximum in A2 scenario of 2.5-4.5°C.More detailed temperature distributions are shown in the downscaling simulation.Larger increments are in the Bohai Sea and middle Yellow Sea,and smaller increments near the southeast coast of China,west coast of Korea,and southern ECS.There is a reduction of advective heat north of Taiwan Island and west of Tsushima in summer,and along the southern part of the Yellow Sea warm current in winter.There is enhancement of advective heat in the northern Yellow Sea in winter,related to the delicate temperature increment distribution.At 50 meter depth,the Yellow Sea cold water mass is destroyed.Our simulations suggest that in the formation season of the cold water mass,regional temperature is higher in the future and the water remains at the bottom until next summer.In summer,the mixed layer is deeper,making it much easier for the strengthened surface heat flux to penetrate to the bottom of this water.     

Interdecadal variations of surface winds over China marginal seas

Long term variability in the surface winds over the marginal seas of China is examined with a dominant-mode singular value decomposition method. Both interannual and interdecadal patterns are found to be seasonally and spatially dependent, with reanalyses and satellite remote sensing data yielding highly consistent results. The study reveals that summer monsoon winds over the East China Sea experienced an interdecadal weakening in the late 1960s and began a persistent recovery in 2005. The study also shows gradual weakening of the winter monsoon in the southern South China Sea by more than 2m/s since the 1960s, with corroboration from coastal climate stations in Borneo. This phenomenon has not been reported in previous monsoon studies.     

HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan - A regional programme of measures for the marine environment based on the Ecosystem Approach

The Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan, adopted by the coastal countries of the Baltic Sea and the European Community in November 2007, is a regional intergovernmental programme of measures for the protection and management of the marine environment explicitly based on the Ecosystem Approach. The Action Plan is structured around a set of Ecological Objectives used to define indicators and targets, including effect-based nutrient input ceilings, and to monitor implementation. The Action Plan strongly links Baltic marine environmental concerns to important socio-economic fields such as agriculture and fisheries and promotes cross-sectoral tools including marine spatial planning. Due to complementarities with the European Union (EU) Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the Action Plan is in essence a pilot for this process without neglecting the important role of the Russian Federation - the only Baltic coastal country not a member of the EU.