太湖风浪场的计算与比较

首先探讨了浅水风浪数值模型—SWAN模型应用于模拟内陆湖泊风浪生成和传播变形时的特点。该模型存在不能有效地模拟近固壁边界处风浪场的缺点,以能正确地模拟湖区的风浪场和节约计算时间为原则,确定了计算范围。对太湖进行了风场和风浪场的现场观测。分别利用规范公式和SWAN模型两种方法、根据观测和预报的风场计算了湖区的有效波高,并将计算结果和现场观测值进行了详细比较。结果表明基于观测的风场,利用两种方法所计算的太湖风浪场的精度基本相当;在根据观测的风场、利用SWAN模型计算内陆湖泊的风浪场时,需要精心选择恰当的风场;在根据预报的风场预报湖区风浪场时,SWAN模型的精度要高于规范公式的精度。     

Determination of the wave climate for the southern Brazilian shelf

The main objective of this study is the characterization of the wave climate in the Southern Brazilian Shelf (SBS) based on a thorough review of existing field data and on numerical modeling experiments. A quantitative knowledge about the wave climate of this area is important to understand the mechanisms driving episodic mud bank attachments to the sandy shore, and the interaction of these banks with the flow and waves. The statistical analysis of existent data on the wave climate throughout the SBS indicates that the predominant wave directions are 100° and 160° (E–SE), with wave heights varying between 1 and 1.50 m. The wave period varies between 6 and 14 s, with predominance of mean wave period of 8 s (sea conditions) and 12 s (swell conditions). The spectral wave model SWAN version 40.41 [Booij, N., Haagsma, I.J.G., Holthuijsen, L.H., Kieftenburg, A.T.M.M., Ris, R.C., van der Westhuysen, A.J., Zijlema, M., 2004. SWAN Cycle III Version 40.41 Users Manual, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands, p. 118, http://fluidmechanics.tudelft.nl/swan/index.htm] is used to simulate the wave climate for the region. Special attention is given to Cassino Beach, describing the wave climate observed during the Cassino Experiment, carried out in 2005. The verification of the standard SWAN model was carried out based on the comparison between numerical modeling results and available data of significant wave height, peak period, mean wave direction and energy density for the period relative to February of 1998. Results showed satisfactory model predictions of significant wave height and reasonably accurate predictions of peak spectral wave period and direction. The model performance is also considered satisfactory in the representation of the wave climate of the region when the wave spectrum has only one spectral peak, but presents limitations for bimodal wave spectrum. When two spectral peaks are observed, the SWAN model agrees with the spectral level observed in the low frequency, but underestimates the spectral level in the high-frequency band. When considering the presence of mud deposits in the area, model results predict that although the presence of mud attenuates most of the wave energy on the low frequency peak, it has a smaller effect in attenuating the wave energy on the high frequency peak.     

Extreme wave event along the Guyana coastline in October 2005

The objective of the research is to analyze in detail the causes and consequences of the unusual event at the coast of Guyana (South America) during October 16–19, 2005. Several sea defense structures were damaged and flooding of low-lying areas occurred. A data analysis of offshore wave and water level characteristics shows an abrupt change in wave direction from east to almost north on October 16, 2005 and a sudden increase in the offshore peak period up to extreme values. The offshore significant wave height was also relatively high, and these wave characteristics coincided with springtide conditions. The long-wave periods and the sharp transition in wave direction indicate that this event is associated with swell waves generated by a depression far away. An analysis of hurricanes and depressions reveals that a severe depression in the Northern Atlantic Ocean during October 11–15 was the origin of this swell event. Numerical computations with SWAN have been carried out to investigate the propagation of the offshore wave characteristics towards the shoreline. The SWAN model includes wave damping due to the presence of soft mud deposits. A calibration of the parameters has been carried out using joint offshore and onshore wave data from November 2006. The numerical simulations of the event in October 2005 clearly demonstrate that the mud banks damp the wave heights, but have almost no effect on the peak period. The resulting waves at the steep sea walls can be classified as surging waves causing severe runup and overtopping. The obtained insights are translated into practical recommendations for the Guyana Sea and River Defence Division in Guyana to build a sustainable management and maintenance of the sea defenses in the future.     

两种海浪模式对一次台风浪过程的模拟分析

以CCMP（Cross—Calibrated,Multi—Platfoml）风场为驱动场,分别驱动目前国际先进的第3代海浪模式ww3（WAVEWATCH—III）、SWAN（Simulating WAves Nearshore）,对2010年9月发生在东中国海的台风“圆规”所致的台风浪进行数值模拟,就台风浪的特征进行分析,并对比分析两个海浪模式的模拟效果。结果表明：1）以CCMP风场分别驱动WW3、SWAN海浪模式,可以较好地模拟发生在东中国海的台风浪,风向与波向保持了大体一致,波高与风速的分布特征保持了很好的一致性;2）综合相关系数、偏差、均方根误差、平均绝对误差来看,两个模式模拟的有效波高（SWH—Significant Wdve Height）都具有较高精度,SWAN模拟的SWH略低于观测值,WW3模拟的SWH与观测值更为接近;3）台风浪可给琉球群岛海域带来5m左右的大浪,台风浪进入东海后,波高、风速都有一定程度的增加,当台风沿西北路径穿越朝鲜半岛时,受到半岛地形的巨大影响,风速和波高都明显降低。     

Modelling the wave-current interactions in an offshore basin using the SWAN model

The theoretical background of the wave-current interactions, including the transformation of the wave spectrum and breaking waves due to currents, are first presented in this work. In the next part of the work, experimental data resulted from studies performed in an offshore wave basin of the Danish Hydraulic Institute concerning the wave-current interactions were presented in parallel with some wave model simulations performed in similar conditions. SWAN, which is presently the state-of-the-art spectral model for the wave transformations, was adopted for performing numerical simulations. In general, a good agreement was encountered between the experimental data and the simulation results.     

南海北部海区波高与厄尔尼诺关系探究

以欧洲中期天气预报中心的23年再分析风场数据为基础,采用HIRHAM风场模式和SWAN海浪模型对南海北部海域的波浪场进行推算,并将南海北部海域的有效波高与厄尔尼诺指数作对比,探究两者的关系,分析结论如下：（1）南海海域波高具有较强的季节性变化特征,冬季波高大于夏季波高;（2）南海北部海域月平均波高与Niño3.4指数呈负相关,大部分海域呈中度相关,台湾和菲律宾之间的部分海域呈高度相关;（3）在强厄尔尼诺年,南海北部海域的有效波高明显偏小,且厄尔尼诺指数变化越大,波高越小;反之,在强拉尼娜年,南海北部海域的有效波高较大。     

SWAN2.0系统的设计与实现

强对流天气短时临近预报系统（Severe Weather Automatic Nowcasting,SWAN）是面向短时临近监测、分析、预报、预警制作等功能为一体的业务平台。SWAN2.0基于MICAPS4（Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System Version 4.0,人机交互气象信息处理和天气预报制作系统）二次开发框架,采用C/S架构,服务器部署在省级,负责收集数据,运算SWAN产品;客户端部署在气象台站,实现具体的预报业务,并形成算法二次开发接口。SWAN2.0新增了三维变分风场反演、基于分雨团技术的雷达降水估测、冰雹识别等方法,实现了算法管理、产品生成、分析处理、资料检索显示、实时监控报警、预警产品制作等功能。SWAN2.0业务系统已在全国试用,在强对流天气监测、分析和短时临近预报预警中发挥了重要作用。     

SWAN模型对实验室小尺度浅水波浪模拟研究

基于浅水斜坡地形的物理模型试验数据,考察SWAN模型对实验室小尺度浅水波浪的模拟效果,进而检验其浅水项的模拟精度。模拟中采用直接输入初始测点的实测海浪谱进行造波,重点考察浅水中三波相互作用和变浅破碎两个源项,对不同工况下,SWAN模式在水深条件变化下的有效波高、谱平均周期、海浪谱演化的模拟能力进行研究。研究表明:模拟的有效波高较符合实测波浪的增长和衰减,但谱平均周期计算值明显偏小;海浪谱的能量转移机制同实测有较大区别,频谱模拟结果出现高频高估、低频低估现象。对两个源项进行对比分析得出三波相互作用对海浪谱的能量转换影响远大于变浅破碎耗散。想要提高近岸区谱平均周期和海浪谱的模拟精度则SWAN模型中三波非线性项的计算精确度仍需更多研究和改进。     

黄、渤海冷空气海浪场的集合预报试验

利用欧洲集合天气预报系统51个预报风场驱动SWAN海浪模式,对黄、渤海2013年12月-2014年2月期间受冷空气影响的海浪场进行数值模拟试验,并利用浮标观测资料对海浪集合预报结果进行初步检验分析,结果显示:从逐时平均偏差结果可知,24h预报时效内集合平均与控制预报性能相近,48~72h预报时效内,集合平均明显优于控制预报,但均比实况偏小;集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)明显优于集合平均,且预报时效越长,优势越明显,集合预报极端值与实况相当或略偏大;从逐24h平均偏差结果可知,集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)比集合平均和控制预报更接近实况。总的分析表明:集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)对受冷空气影响的海浪场具有较强的分辨能力,可以提高对海浪场的预报水平,且有较好的应用潜力。     

SWAN雷达拼图VIL产品中鄂西南地物回波特征及其剔除方法

利用2011年6~8月的SWAN雷达拼图垂直累计液态含水量(VIL)产品,分析VIL产品中鄂西南地物回波特征,提出直接定位剔除的方法:首先建立鄂西南地物位置索引表,然后根据索引表在VIL拼图产品中剔除地物,最后对剔除地物后的空白区域通过局部递归插值来进行图像平滑处理。经过实际资料检验,在一定样本数的统计结果中取得了较好效果,能够更真实地反映VIL水平分布特征。