赤道东太平洋SST强增温过程特征分析

本文利用太平洋海温距平场资料,对１９８６年以来发生的厄尔尼诺过程的开始时间、发展过程及强度等方面进行了分析。并与历史上的厄尔尼诺过程进行比较,结果表明,９０年代是厄尔尼诺事件的多发期,在１９９１￣９８年的８年中,间连续发生四次厄经诺事件,其中１９９７￣９８年的厄尔尼诺,成为有历史记录以来最强的一次过程。     

山东2009年10月降水气候背景及前期海温与大气环流特征

利用1951—2009年北半球500hPa高度、北太平洋海温、环流特征量、降水等资料,采用相关分析、合成分析、经验函数正交分解(EOF)、子波分析等多种统计技术,对影响山东2009年10月降水趋势的各种因素进行分析和研究。结果表明:山东10月降水大致存在3种降水分布型;在不同时间尺度的气候背景上,2009年10月山东基本处于一个少雨或由少雨向多雨转换的气候阶段;2009年春季加利福尼亚冷流的减弱,2009年6月开始的厄尔尼诺事件及6月起西太平洋副高持续的偏强、偏西、正常或偏南状态,各种指标均指示山东10月降水偏少的可能性大,预测与实况基本吻合。     

PECULIARITIES OF LONG TERM VARIATION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN

It is necessary to study the tropical western Pacific SST in association with variations of other parts of the globe. Two basic compositions are revealed of long-term variation in SST over three major tropical oceans since the 1950's (linear warming and El Nino-La Nina oscillations) and typical patterns with which they are displayed over the oceans are compared. On the basis of it, difference in long-term variation of SST over western, central and eastern tropical Pacific is analyzed in details. It is pointed out that the El Nino-La Nina oscillations are relatively weak in the long-term variation of SST in the tropical western Pacific and linear warming trend there is replaced by interdecadal oscillations. Further understanding of the peculiarity over the region helps improve short-term climatic predictions in China.     

热带东印度洋海表温度持续性的秋季障碍

利用全球海表海温资料(GISST)和NCEP/NCAR再分析风场、海平面气压场资料,研究了热带东印度洋海表温度持续性的季节差异,发现东印度洋海温持续性存在"秋季障碍"现象。进一步分析了东印度洋"秋季障碍"后冬季海温与中东太平洋海温、海平面气压及850hPa风场的关系,并讨论了热带印度洋—太平洋地区海气系统的季节变化与东印度洋"秋季障碍"的关系,结果表明,秋季热带印度洋—太平洋地区海气系统由以印度洋季风环流为主导转向以太平洋海气系统为主导,太平洋海气系统处于急剧加强期,增强的太平洋海气系统对东印度洋海温持续性"秋季障碍"起着重要的作用。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF MEI-YU PRECIPITATION AND SVD ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVERS VALLEYS AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN

Based on the precipitation data of Meiyu at 37 stations in the valleys of Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers from 1954 to 2001, the temporal-spatial characteristics of Meiyu precipitation and their relationships with the sea surface temperature in northern Pacific are investigated using such methods as harmonic analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF), composite analysis and singular value decomposition (SVD). The results show that the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of Meiyu precipitation are not homogeneous in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basins but with prominent inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities. The key region between the anomalies of Meiyu precipitation and the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) lies in the west wind drift of North Pacific, which influences the precipitation anomaly of Meiyu precipitation over a key period of time from January to March in the same year. When the SST in the North Pacific west wind drift is warmer (colder) than average during these months, Meiyu precipitation anomalously increases (decreases) in the concurrent year. Results of SVD are consistent with those of composite analysis which pass the significance test of Monte-Carlo at 0.05.     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT OF IMPACT OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA AND WARM POOL/WEST PACIFIC ON EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON

By using the NCAR CCM1 model, we have designed six sensitive experiments, which areincreased and decreased SST (sea surface temperature) by 1℃ each in the SCS (South China Sea)and in the West Pacific warm pool, increased and decreased SST by 1℃ in the warm pool withincreased SST by 1℃ in the SCS. All experiments are integrated from April to July. Comparingwith the control experiment, we have analyzed the anomalies of the wind field at the upper andlower layers, the anomalies of the seasonal variability of the monsoon and precipitation for eachexperiment. In the result, we have found that the SST anomaly (SSTA) in the SCS greatly affectsthe seasonal variability of the SCS monsoon and precipitation in China, especially during the coldperiod of SST in the SCS. The impact of SSTA in the warm pool on SCS monsoon is also found.but is weak as compared to the effect of SST anomaly in the SCS. Besides, its impact on rainfall inChina is uncertain.     

南海及其邻近海域SST系统的点概率密度谱特征

采用相空间点概率密度谱分析方法对南海及其邻近海域ＮＣＥＰｒｅａｎａｌｙｓｉｓＳＳＴ候平均资料进行了分析,发现南海与其邻近海域的ＳＳＴ系统的结构均具有混沌特征,南海与孟加拉湾ＳＳＴ系统的耦合谱分布几乎一致;年变化最显著,年际变化次之,季节内变化相对较弱。邻近西太平洋ＳＳＴ系统中的准３ａ耦合振荡相当显著。对于季节内振荡,西太平洋ＳＳＴ系统强于孟加拉湾和南海的ＳＳＴ系统。结果还表明季节内振荡（３０～６０ｄ）是一种耦合振荡。     

华南夏季降水的变化特征及其与热带太平洋海温异常的关系

根据1958-2008年华南48站降水资料、NOAA全球逐月海温格点资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用EOF分解、相关、合成等统计方法,分析了华南夏季降水的变化特征及其与冬季热带太平洋海温的关系。结果表明,华南夏季降水变化特征主要表现为,空间分布以全区一致型为主,其次是南北反相对称型和东西反相对称型,且这3种分布模态都表现出显著的年际和年代际特征。全区一致型降水异常与热带太平洋海温显著相关,二者的相关性也具有年代际变化特征,其对应的热带太平洋海温具有沿赤道太平洋呈“负-正-负”的纬向分布型,类似于中部型El Nino。全区降水偏多时期,西南季风偏强,西太平洋副热带高压偏强、脊点位置偏西,南亚高压偏强、脊点位置偏东,总体的环流形势有利于华南地区的水汽输送和上升运动;降水偏少时期,情况相反。     

The impact of boreal autumn SST anomalies over the South Pacific on boreal winter precipitation over East Asia

The possible mechanism behind the variability in the dipole pattern of boreal winter precipitation over East Asia is analyzed in this study. The results show that the SST anomalies(SSTAs) over the South Pacific Ocean(SPO) in boreal autumn are closely related to the variability in the dipole pattern of boreal winter precipitation over East Asia. The physical link between the boreal autumn SPO SSTAs and the boreal winter East Asian precipitation dipole pattern is shown to mainly be the seasonal persistence of the SPO SSTAs themselves. The seasonal persistence of the SPO SSTAs can memorize and transport the signal of the boreal autumn SSTAs to the following winter, and then stimulates a meridional teleconnection pattern from the SH to the NH, resulting in a meridional dipole pattern of atmospheric circulation over East Asia in boreal winter. As a major influencing factor, this dipole pattern of the atmospheric circulation can finally lead to the anomalous precipitation dipole pattern over East Asia in boreal winter. These observed physical processes are further confirmed in this study through numerical simulation. The evidence from this study, showing the impact of the SPO SSTAs in boreal autumn,not only deepens our understanding of the variability in East Asian boreal winter precipitation, but also provides a potentially useful predictor for precipitation in the region.     

Interannual Fluctuations of Surface Air Temperature over North America and Its Relationship to the North Pacific SST Anomaly

The characteristics of interannual fluctuations of the surface air temperature over North America are investigated by using the surface air temperature data of 130 stations during 1941 through 1980. It is found that the surface air temperature bears about ten-year time scale oscillation over the southeastern and northwestern North America and along the west coast of the United States, and it has the characteristics of quasibiennial oscillation over the eastern North America. The ten-year scale oscillation of the surface air temperature is related to that of the sea surface temperature (SST) of North Pacific through the PNA pattern atmospheric circulation anomaly over North Pacific through North America. It is shown that the North Pacific SST has a closer association with the surface air temperature over North America than the central and eastern equatorial Pacific SST. The characteristics of the seasonal variations of the relationship between the North Pacific SST and the surface air temperature over No