北方涛动同北半球温带大气环流的遥相关(二)——季节变化

在以前工作的基础上,本文进一步分析了各个季节北方涛动和与其相联系的北太平洋海温同北半球温带大气环流遥相关的特征,并与南方涛动和赤道太平洋海温的结果进行了比较,发现它们同北半球温带大气环流的遥相关,不仅具有很强的地区性,而且具有明显的季节变化。 冬季,北方涛动和北太平洋海温与PNA型相关非常明显,且比南方涛动和赤道太平洋海温的更密切。除PNA型外,北方涛动还同500hPa高度的亚洲-北美(ANA)流型有联系。 夏季,PNA遥相关型的表现仍然非常清楚,但位置较冬季偏酉和偏北,并在北美西海岸具有特殊的分叉现象。     

Interdecadal Variations of ENSO Signals and Annual Cycles Revealed by Wavelet Analysis

Interdecadal variations of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals and annual cycles appearing in the sea surface temperature (SST) and zonal wind in the equatorial Pacific during 1950–1997 are studied by wavelet, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses. The typical timescale of ENSO is estimated to be about 40 months before the late 1970s and 48–52 months after that; the timescale increased by about 10 months. The spatial pattern of the ENSO signal appearing in SST also changed in the 1970s; before that, the area of strong signal spread over the extratropical regions, while it is confined near the equator after that. The center of the strongest signal shifted from the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to the South American coast at that time. These SST fluctuations near the equator are associated with fluctuations of zonal wiond, whose spatial pattern also shifted considerably eastward at that time. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, amplitudes of annual cycles of SST are weak in El Niño years and strong in La Niña years. This relation is not clear, however, in the 1980s and 1990s.     

海表水温变动对东、黄海鲐鱼栖息地分布的影响

海表水温(SST)通常是表征鱼类栖息地分布的主要指标。本文根据1999—2007年我国大型灯光围网的鲐鱼生产统计数据,结合海洋遥感获得的SST,分析了渔汛期间鲐鱼栖息地的适宜SST范围,探讨了SST变动情况下鲐鱼栖息地的变化趋势。研究结果表明,东、黄海鲐鱼7—12月的适宜SST范围为15~30℃。根据政府气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第四份评估报告,本文拟定4种SST上升的情况,即(1)每月平均SST+0.5℃;(2)每月平均SST+1℃;(3)每月平均SST+2℃;(4)每月平均SST+4℃。结果显示,东、黄海鲐鱼的潜在栖息有明显向北移动的趋势,并且栖息地面积逐渐减小。研究认为,全球气候变化引起的SST上升,可能会对近海鲐鱼栖息地造成严重的影响。     

Position and velocity perturbations for the determination of geopotential from space geodetic measurements

Although space geodetic observing systems have been advanced recently to such a revolutionary level that low Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellites can now be tracked almost continuously and at the unprecedented high accuracy, none of the three basic methods for mapping the Earth’s gravity field, namely, Kaula linear perturbation, the numerical integration method and the orbit energy-based method, could meet the demand of these challenging data. Some theoretical effort has been made in order to establish comparable mathematical modellings for these measurements, notably by Mayer-Gürr et al. (J Geod 78:462–480, 2005). Although the numerical integration method has been routinely used to produce models of the Earth’s gravity field, for example, from recent satellite gravity missions CHAMP and GRACE, the modelling error of the method increases with the increase of the length of an arc. In order to best exploit the almost continuity and unprecedented high accuracy provided by modern space observing technology for the determination of the Earth’s gravity field, we propose using measured orbits as approximate values and derive the corresponding coordinate and velocity perturbations. The perturbations derived are quasi-linear, linear and of second-order approximation. Unlike conventional perturbation techniques which are only valid in the vicinity of reference mean values, our coordinate and velocity perturbations are mathematically valid uniformly through a whole orbital arc of any length. In particular, the derived coordinate and velocity perturbations are free of singularity due to the critical inclination and resonance inherent in the solution of artificial satellite motion by using various types of orbital elements. We then transform the coordinate and velocity perturbations into those of the six Keplerian orbital elements. For completeness, we also briefly outline how to use the derived coordinate and velocity perturbations to establish observation equations of space geodetic measurements for the determination of geopotential.     

冬季南海SST月异常时500hPa气温响应场的传播路径

利用中科院大气物理研究所的两层大气环流模式（ＩＡＰ—ＧＣＭⅡ）作了南海海表水温月异常时５００ｈＰａ气温响应场传播路径的数值试验。结果表明：当南海表面水温出现正异常时该气温响应场分为南北两支传播;北支沿逆时针路径向北传播,由南海经我国东南部到达青藏高原,南支则向南传播;而当负异常时,则该响应场有顺时针的传播路径,由南海经泰国湾最后也到达青藏高原。     

Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in northeast Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and consequent effect on some fish

Global warming effects on seaweed beds are already perceptible. Their geographical distributions greatly depend on water temperatures. To predict future geographical distributions of brown alga, Sargassum horneri, forming large beds in the northwestern Pacific, we referred to future monthly surface water temperatures at about 1.1° of longitude and 0.6° of latitude in February and August in 2050 and 2100 simulated by 12 organizations under an A2 scenario of global warming. The southern limit of S. horneri distribution is expected to keep moving northward such that it may broadly disappear from Honshu Island, the Chinese coast, and Korean Peninsula in 2100, when tropical Sargassum species such as Sargassum tenuifolium may not completely replace S. horneri. Thus, their forests in 2100 do not substitute those of S. horneri in 2000. Fishes using the beds and seaweed rafts consisting of S. horneri in East China Sea suffer these disappearances.     

An integrated wavelet concept of physical geodesy

For the determination of the earth's gravity field many types of observations are nowadays available, including terrestrial gravimetry, airborne gravimetry, satellite-to-satellite tracking, satellite gradio-metry, etc. The mathematical connection between these observables on the one hand and gravity field and shape of the earth on the other is called the integrated concept of physical geodesy. In this paper harmonic wavelets are introduced by which the gravitational part of the gravity field can be approximated progressively better and better, reflecting an increasing flow of observations. An integrated concept of physical geodesy in terms of harmonic wavelets is presented. Essential tools for approximation are integration formulas relating an integral over an internal sphere to suitable linear combinations of observation functionals, i.e. linear functionals representing the geodetic observables. A scale discrete version of multiresolution is described for approximating the gravitational potential outside and on the earth's surface. Furthermore, an exact fully discrete wavelet approximation is developed for the case of band-limited wavelets. A method for combined global outer harmonic and local harmonic wavelet modelling is proposed corresponding to realistic earth's models. As examples, the role of wavelets is discussed for the classical Stokes problem, the oblique derivative problem, satellite-to-satellite tracking, satellite gravity gradiometry and combined satellite-to-satellite tracking and gradiometry. Received: 28 February 1997 / Accepted: 17 November 1997     

Comparative ecology of the copepods Calanoides carinatus and Calanus agulhensis — the influence of temperature and food

Hypotheses regarding temperature, food abundance and food size were tested to explore niche separation between Calanoides carinatus, an abundant copepod in the cool and food-rich southern Benguela upwelling system, and Calanus agulhensis, the dominant copepod on the warmer, relatively food-poor Agulhas Bank off the south coast of South Africa. Under non-limiting food conditions, egg production by both species increased linearly with temperatures between 9°C and 18°C. Egg production by C. carinatus was relatively faster at 21°C, but was offset by greater mortality. Both species showed similar functional responses to food concentration in the field, reaching satiation at ～15mg Chl a m^?3, or ～3–4ppm. Food abundance was the most important predictor of egg production, whether measured as Chl a or as particle volume. Both species preferred larger particles that dominated the biomass peak, but particle size appeared more important for C. carinatus, with increasingly faster rates of egg production as the proportion of large cells (>10μm) exceeded 50%, and slower ingestion of small (<10μm) cells. Omnivory may be more important to C. agulhensis. Niche separation between the two species appears unrelated to temperature, food abundance or diel vertical migratory behaviour, and is more likely a function of variability in food availability, although food size may also play a role.     

夏季西北太平洋和南中国海台风生成与前期冬春主要环境条件的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料、OLR资料和中国气象局编辑的<台风年鉴>及<热带气旋年鉴>资料,对西北太平洋和南中国海夏季中心附近的平均风力达8级(17 m/s)或以上的热带气旋(含热带风暴、强热带风暴和台风,以下统称台风)牛成频数与气候背景的关系进行了研究分析.对台风牛成多寡的气候背景差异和特征进行比较表明,前期冬春季海温和赤道辆合带的异常与夏季台风生成有密切的关系.前期冬春季在类似于La Nina型海温距平分布背景下,从冬至夏在赤道中太平洋160°E附近的ITCZ有一个向西北方向加强北抬的过程,太平洋ITCZ的活动偏北偏强,赤道太平洋有异常活跃的ITCZ向西太平洋台风主要源地推进,有利于后期夏季台风的生成;相反,前期冬春季在类似于E1 Nino型海温距平分布背景下,赤道西太平洋ITCZ偏弱偏南,不利于后期夏季的台风生成.在夏季多台风年,前期冬季西太平洋暖海温异常为后期台风的发展提供了重要的有利背景,在暖海温的持续作用下,对流层的风场辐合异常增强,增加了暖海温区的水汽供应.到了前期春季,热带辐合带的扰动扮演了更为重要的角色.随着赤道辐合带的北移,附加的异常辐合位于暖海温区时,会激发出低空大尺度水汽辐合与自由大气中潜热释放之间的正反馈,有利于后期台风的生成.当前期冬季至春季西北太平洋海温持续异常偏冷时,对流层的风场为辐散异常,减少了冷海温区的水汽供应,导致赤道辐合带不活跃,缺乏必要扰动,夏季台风生成偏少.     

热带东印度洋SST对气候变暖和变冷的响应

The response of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean(ETIO) to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model(CESM). A significant positive asymmetry in sea surface temperature(SST) is found over the ETIO—the warming responses to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing. A mixed layer heat budget analysis is carried out to identify the mechanisms responsible for the SST asymmetry. Results show that it is mainly ascribed to the ocean dynamical processes, including vertical advections and diffusion. The net surface heat flux, on the contrary, works to reduce the asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components. The former is due to the nonlinear relationship between SST and cloud, while the latter is resulted mainly from Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. Changes in the SST skewness are also evaluated, with more enhanced negative SST skewness over the ETIO found for the cooling than heating scenarios due to the asymmetric thermocline-SST feedback.