用检测极端降水过程的EID方法确定梅雨雨期

梅雨期是江淮流域夏季降水最为集中的时段。先前研究提出的从时域上寻找极端降水过程的EID方法,可用来确定梅雨雨期的开始和结束及梅雨的强度。该方法含有一个介于0~1之间的可调参数a,通过对其设定不同的值,可确定出一年中不同时间尺度的降水最为集中的时段(雨期)。以南京的梅雨为例,通过试验将参数a取值为0.10,用EID方法获得了气候态的梅雨雨期,它于6月19日开始,7月12日结束,这大体与传统认定的梅雨期相符。对于逐年梅雨雨期的确定,情况稍有复杂。在用同样的方法确定出各年的强降水时段后,在62 a里去掉了12个异常的年份,包括雨期太长和太短、及太早和太晚的年份。然后对其余50个梅雨较为典型的年份进行平均。结果显示,平均的入梅日期为6月24日,平均的出梅日期为7月14日,平均雨期为20 a,这也大体与传统认定的结果相符。     

GAP分析：保护生物多样性的地理学方法

GAP分析1988年由Burley首次提出并被Scott在夏威夷项目中首次应用。GAP分析（保护生物多样性的地理学方法）是快速概观生物多样性几种要素的分布和保护状态的一种方法,它集中在生物有机体更高层,基于生境保护和多物种保护的双重目的,已被证明是保护大尺度生物多样性行之有效的方法之一。目前GAP分析主要集中于陆地脊索动物门的研究,而对水生生境和其它动物门研究较少,同时对生物多样性的过程研究不足。本文在对GAP分析的内涵、产生、研究现状综述的基础上,分析GAP分析的优缺点和发展趋势,并对我国GAP分析进行研究。由于中国的GAP计划尚未进行,现阶段中国的GAP分析应首先集中在一些生物多样性典型地区或针对一些濒危和稀有物种进行研究,然后推广到其它地区或普通物种。     

Using eye tracking to evaluate the usability of animated maps

Cartographic animation has been developed and widely used in geo-visualisation and many other areas in recent years.The usability of animated maps is a key characteristic affecting map users’effectiveness and efficiency in accomplishing tasks.In this paper,an eye tracking approach was proposed as a visual analytics method to evaluate the usability of animated maps by capturing participants’eye movement data and quantitatively analysing the accuracy(effectiveness)and response time(efficiency)of users’task completion.In the study,a set of animated traffic maps represented by three important visual variables(colour hue,size and frequency)was used for the usability evaluation.The experimental results showed that the usability of these three visual variables for cartographic animation affects the usability of animated maps.Red,yellow,and aqua were found to convey map information more effectively than other colour hues.Size was found to be more usable than colour hues for both animated maps and static maps.Usability was not found to be proportional to the playback rate of animated maps.Furthermore,the usability of the frequency,colour hue,and size was found to be related to the display’s size.We hope that the analysis approach presented in this paper and the results of this study will be of help in the design of cartographic animation displays with better usability.     

A geomorphological model of susceptibility to the effect of human interventions for environmental licensing determination (SHIELD)

Almost every country requires some form of environmental licensing prior to the inception of development projects that may affect the integrity of the environment and its social context. We developed a new conceptual and methodological model to instruct the assessment of the potential impacts posed by proposed projects. Susceptibility to Human Interventions for Environmental Licensing Determination (SHIELD) includes a novel geomorphological interpretation of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). It considers the impact of human interventions on geomorphological processes and landscape functioning in the context of the entire ecosystem, going further than the classical concept of vulnerability. Estimated susceptibility of the site informs the screening stage, allowing local conditions to help define the criteria used in the process. Similarly, the level of detail of the environmental baseline is scoped by considering the degree of disturbance of natural processes posed by human intervention. Testing this geomorphological susceptibility model on different kinds of environments would allow shifting the environmental licensing practices from the prevailing anthropocentric and static conception of the environment towards an Ecosystem Approach. SHIELD addresses the need to improve the screening and scoping stages that form the basis of the rest of any EIA. SHIELD introduces several innovations to EIA including the incorporation of fuzzy logic, a preassembled database of contributions form experts, and a shifting of emphasis from the type of proposed intervention to the type of environment and its relative susceptibility.     

Acceptance of the international compensation regime for tanker oil pollution – And its implications for China

The international compensation regime for tanker oil pollution has been successful in providing adequate and prompt compensation to pollution victims in its member states. Nevertheless, the attitudes of different countries toward acceptance of this regime have varied considerably. This paper aims to explain three main factors in the acceptance of the regime, including: (1) The level of economic development; (2) the risk of exposure to tanker oil spills; and (3) the financial burden associated with adherence to the International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund (IOPC). Using both fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis and an Ordered Probit model, this study found two patterns causing upper-middle and high income countries to have a high acceptance level: (a) Those facing a medium risk of oil spills and having a low financial burden; and (b) those facing a high risk of oil spills. The study reveals that, for a country with a high risk of exposure to tanker oil spills, such as China, with its improvement in economic status it is far better for it to join the IOPC Fund, so as to provide better protection both for potential pollution victims and for the marine environment. The results of this study can also be applied to other countries that are considering whether or not to accept the international compensation regime for tanker oil pollution.     

Human dignity: A fundamental guiding value for a human rights approach to fisheries?

Recently, a human rights approach has been center-staged within fisheries governance as a response to the limits of private property rights in reducing insecurity and vulnerability among fishers and fishing communities. Despite its growing adoption in international legal frameworks and among civil society organizations, the conceptual pitfalls of the human rights approach to fisheries (i.e., its neoliberal tendencies and the neglect of collective rights and social duties) raised by critical scholarship remain largely unsettled, leading to practical concerns about whether such a framework will ultimately benefit fishers on the ground. To further contribute to the debate, this article presents a nuanced discussion of the human rights perspective by introducing the concept of human dignity. Specifically, it argues that human dignity, with its greater conceptual scope and depth, could act as a foundational value with which to mitigate some of the shortcomings of the human rights approach. The purpose here is suggestive rather than definitive and is aimed at highlighting the link that has not been clearly made between human rights and human dignity. I argue that heightened attention to human dignity has the potential to create wider support for the human rights approach and ultimately help facilitate its efficacy in fisheries.     

Controlling the open ocean forcing of baroclinic coastal jets with a 4D-var method

An optimal control approach was carried out to investigate the influence of perturbations of baroclinic coastal jets which are located upstream of the observation site. Two academic numerical experiments were considered: the intrusion of the buoyancy anomaly within an established density current along a straight coast (experiments A), and the interaction of a coastal current with a shelf topography (experiments B). We explored the sensitivity of the forcing retrieval to the spatial distribution of observations (experiments A) and to the temporal sampling of the forcing (experiments B), using a 4D-var formalism. The sensitivity of numerical simulations is discussed in the framework of analytical solutions. The results provide insight into how observational network and data assimilation method would impact the realistic modelling of coastal jets and the shelf slope exchanges.     

颗粒分析试验研究

颗粒分析试验是测定干土中各种粒组所占该土总质量的百分数的方法,借以明了颗粒大小分布情况,供土的分类及粗略判断土的工程性质及建筑材料选料之用,其中的密度计法用于测定小于0.075 mm以下的颗粒大小及分布情况,测量的准确度直接关系到土中黏粒和胶粒的多少,在试验的角度分析了密度计法试验结果误差的原因,指出现行规范中温度校正的不合理性,提出了空白试验方法,供工程技术人员和土工试验人员参考并验证.     

Stress integration approach to evaluate damping ratio in torsional tests

The complexity of determining strain associated with shear modulus and damping ratio in torsional tests has been resolved by means of several approaches. The stress integration approach is adequate when generating the plots of equivalent radius ratio versus strain more effectively over any range of strains in resonant column and torsional shear (RC/TS) tests. The stress integration approach was applied for hyperbolic, modified hyperbolic, and Ramberg–Osgood models in evaluating damping ratio. This study showed that using a single value of equivalent radius ratio in evaluating damping ratio is not appropriate. The combined hysteretic‐nonviscous damping model was developed and employed to consider the increased damping behavior at small strains using the stress integration approach. The results suggest that adding viscous behavior has no significant effect strain calculations in RC/TS testing. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中央气象台短期降雨预报水平初步分析

该文利用1988～1993年资料，对中央气象台降雨预报水平状况进行了初步分析。结果表明:最近6年，中央气象台的有雨预报、小雨预报、中雨预报和等级综合预报的准确率和技巧水平均有不同程度的提高；暴雨和大暴雨两个等级的落点预报的准确率均超过气候概率，具有正技巧（技巧评分＞0），但技巧水平提高不明显。