论新疆深大断裂特征与地震的关系(1)

新疆地区大地构造演化及地质构造运动非常强烈、复杂,由此而发育形成了许多规模巨大的深大断裂.这些断裂对于区域构造环境、构造运动方式以及变形特征都起着重要的作用.通过对深大断裂的研究,对于进一步认识区域应力场的变化和大地震孕育发生的过程有着十分重要的意义.     

面波群速度频散计算中滤波的数值实验研究

面波群速度计算中容易出现长周期部分时间域分辨率低的问题，因此，如何提高时间域的分辨率很重要。本文将引入等误差滤波的方法就改进群速度计算中滤波效果进行数值试验。结果表明，采用等误差滤波能明显提高群速度长周期部分的分辨率，对准确地测定长周期部分的群速度有重要意义。     

单双频智能手机GNSS定位精度分析

为分析单、双频手机在单点定位和动态导航中的差异,本文对单、双频手机观测卫星数、信噪比、静态/动态定位中原始观测值/卡尔曼滤波值进行了对比和分析。试验结果表明,在静态无遮挡的试验条件下,小米MI8双频手机原始观测值较OPPO Reno单频手机定位误差均值减小了1.70 m且能观测到更多的卫星数,进行卡尔曼滤波处理后,单频手机较双频手机而言精度提升更多,两者最终精度相当。而在动态有遮挡的试验条件下,双频较单频定位误差均值减小了5.24 m,进行卡尔曼滤波处理后,两者精度均有明显改善,双频相对单频误差均值减小了0.87 m。     

矿山地质环境风险管理的多目标决策

矿山地质环境风险决策是一个涉及诸多利益群体的多目标决策问题。为了在矿山开发和关闭中有效地控制地质环境风险,我们提出了由风险在可接受水平内、风险控制工程效益达到最大和矿区规划科学合理3个目标组成的多目标决策问题,并采用层次分析法求解该决策问题。最后,将决策过程用于广西凤山城区内某废弃石灰岩矿山,综合设计单位、政府部门和当地群众的意见后,完成了矿山地质环境治理方案的决策。决策结果认为,采用P1（削坡、清理危岩、坡面锚固）、P2（截水+落石平台拦截+监测）、P3（坡面整形+岩壁雕刻+部分生态恢复）和P4（风险教育）的组合是最优治理方案。研究成果不仅有效地指导了该石灰岩矿山的地质环境治理工程,也对发展矿山关闭理论和风险管理具有重要作用。     

岩溶塌陷危险性评价——以独山县交摆村为例

岩溶塌陷是多因素相互影响,成因机制较为复杂的地质灾害类型,在空间上具有隐蔽性,时间上具有突发性的特征。为有效预测、评价岩溶塌陷危险性,本文采用GRA -FAHP,从岩溶条件、覆盖层条件、地下水条件、工程活动条件等因素出发,选取14个主要影响指标构建定性与定量相结合的岩溶塌陷危险性评价模型,以贵州省独山县交摆村岩溶塌陷区为例对模型进行验证。结果表明,该模型对岩溶塌陷危险性评价与实际情况相符。可为今后岩溶塌陷危险性的预测、评价提供一些借鉴。     

Gauging perceptions of ocean acidification in Alaska

While ocean acidification (OA) poses a significant threat to ocean-related ecosystems and communities reliant on marine fisheries, aquaculture, and coral reef systems, limited public understanding and awareness can prevent coastal regions from being able to adequately assess the need for OA adaptation or mitigation. This study assessed public understanding of OA and how social and demographic factors influence the public’s concern for OA. The analysis was based on 311 questionnaires from full-time Alaska residents. The results showed that most Alaskans self-reported to have a basic awareness of OA, and subsequently were able to recognize that CO₂ emissions related to human activity are the dominant driver of changing ocean conditions. However, there was a low recognition of how natural variability in the marine environment affects OA, and most respondents were not very confident in their understanding of OA-related science. Moreover, even though many communities in Alaska are reliant on commercial and subsistence fishing activities, the respondents had a low awareness of fisheries-related OA risk. Given the ongoing debate associated with climate change research, evaluating CO₂ mitigation efforts through the perspective of OA could give individuals an unbiased way to assess the pros and cons of more intensive efforts to curb CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, using OA communication to enhance the understanding of how natural variability influences OA around the state and the potential economic implications for Alaska fisheries would help residents and stakeholders make informed decisions when considering fisheries management plans, food security, and job diversity as OA intensifies. Solidifying the understanding that any reduction in pH and intensification of OA can have implications for marine species that are irreversible on human timescales will reinforce not only that OA is an immediate concern, but also the importance of taking action now.     

Risk, rescue and emergency services: The changing spatialities of Mountain Rescue Teams in England and Wales

This paper considers the role of the emergency services in society and, in particular, their role in controlling, mitigating and resolving risk. Using a network approach, Mountain Rescue Teams are studied in order to examine how people, agencies, animals, technology and knowledge are deployed to resolve emergencies. The paper traces the changing nature of risk in rural places and the impact of state regulation on the deployment, spatialities and practices of the emergency services. In doing so, it argues that greater attention should be paid to the emergency services by geographers.     

Risk mitigation and the social cost of carbon

The social cost of carbon – i.e., the marginal present-value cost imposed by greenhouse gas emissions – is determined by a complex interaction between factual assumptions, modeling methods, and value judgments. Among the most crucial factors is society's willingness to tolerate potentially catastrophic environmental risks. To explore this issue, the present analysis employs a stochastic climate–economy model that accounts for uncertainties in baseline economic growth, baseline emissions, greenhouse gas mitigation costs, carbon cycling, climate sensitivity, and climate change damages. In this model, preferences are specified to reflect the high degree of risk aversion revealed by private investment decisions, signaled by the large observed gap between the average rates of return paid by safe and risky financial instruments. In contrast, most climate–economy models assume much lower risk aversion. Given high risk aversion, the analysis finds that investment in climate stabilization yields especially large net benefits by forestalling low-probability threats to long-run human well-being. Accordingly, the social cost of carbon attains the markedly high value of $25,700 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in a baseline scenario in which emissions are unregulated. This value falls to just $4 per ton as the stringency of control measures is successively increased. These results cast doubt on the idea that the social cost of carbon takes on a uniquely defined, objective value that is independent of policy decisions. This does not, however, rule out the use of carbon prices to achieve the benefits of climate stabilization using least-cost mitigation measures.     

Differentiating capacities as a means to sustainable climate change adaptation

There are two forms of capacity to adapt to global change: those associated with fundamental human development goals (generic capacity), and those necessary for managing and reducing specific climatic threats (specific). We argue that these two domains of capacity must be addressed explicitly, simultaneously and iteratively if climate change adaptation and sustainable development goals are to be attained. We propose a simple heuristic to understand the four main ways these two capacities interact, leading to more or less desirable outcomes. Drawing from three case studies of agricultural adaptation to climatic risk (Phoenix, AZ; Northeast Brazil; Chiapas, Mexico) we argue that the institutional context of adaptation can implicitly or explicitly undermine one form of capacity with repercussions for the development of the other. A better and more strategic balance of generic and specific capacities is needed if the promised synergies between sustainable development and adaptation are to be achieved.     

论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略简

The drought is a most severe natural disaster worldwide, which leads to great risk in human being. The drought disaster and risk have more prominent because of obvious climatic warming in the last hundred years. At present, the understanding of the internal laws of the occurrence of drought and drought risk is not comprehensive, and the recognition of the characteristics of the drought and drought risk under climatic warming is obscure. In this paper, we summarized systematically the domestic and overseas research progress of the drought and drought disaster risk, introduced the principle of the drought disaster transfer process and the essential features of drought disaster, analyzed synthetically the main characteristics and interactions among the key factors of the drought disaster risk, discussed the effect of climatic warming on drought and drought disaster risk, and probed into the basic requirement of drought disaster risk management. Above all, we provide the main protective measurements of the drought disaster and the main strategy of drought disaster risk management.