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511.
Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using an integrated GIS Monte Carlo simulation approach 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using a combined Geographic Information System (GIS), infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed and applied in the landslide-prone area of Sasebo city, southern Japan. A digital elevation model (DEM) for the study area has been created at a scale of 1/2500. Calculated results of slope angle and slope aspect derived from the DEM are discussed. Through the spatial interpolation of the identified stream network, the thickness distribution of the colluvium above Tertiary strata is determined with precision. Finally, by integrating an infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation with GIS, and applying spatial processing, a slope failure probability distribution map is obtained for the case of both low and high water levels. 相似文献
512.
Ananda K. Das U. C. Mohanty Someshwar Das M. Manual S. R. Kalsi 《Journal of Earth System Science》2003,112(2):165-184
The skill and efficiency of a numerical model mostly varies with the quality of initial values, accuracy on parameterization
of physical processes and horizontal and vertical resolution of the model. Commonly used low-resolution reanalyses are hardly
able to capture the prominent features associated with organized convective processes in a monsoon depression. The objective
is to prepare improved high-resolution analysis by the use of MM5 modelling system developed by the Pennsylvania State University/National
Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR). It requires the objective comparison of high and low-resolution analysis datasets
in assessing the specific convective features of a monsoon depression. For this purpose, reanalysis datasets of NCAR/NCEP
(National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) at a horizontal resolution of 2.5‡
(latitude/longitude) have been used as first guess in the objective analysis scheme. The additional asynoptic datasets obtained
during BOBMEX-99 are utilized within the assimilation process. Cloud Motion Wind (CMW) data of METEOSAT satellite and SSM/I
surface wind data are included for the improvement of derived analysis. The multiquadric (MQD) interpolation technique is
selected and applied for meteorological objective analysis at a horizontal resolution of 30 km. After a successful inclusion
of additional data, the resulting reanalysis is able to produce the structure of convective organization as well as prominent
synoptic features associated with monsoon depression. Comparison and error verifications have been done with the help of available
upper-air station data. The objective verification reveals the efficiency of the analysis scheme. 相似文献
513.
Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate. 相似文献
514.
A. K. Mitra M. Das Gupta R. K. Paliwal S. V. Singh 《Journal of Earth System Science》2003,112(2):223-232
A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The
satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon
these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and the Bay of Bengal region during the BOBMEX period.
The intra-seasonal variations of rainfall during BOBMEX are also seen using these data. This dataset over the oceanic region
compares well with other available popular datasets like GPCP and CMAP. Over land this dataset brings out the features of
monsoon in more detail due to the availability of more local raingauge stations. 相似文献
515.
The analysis of modal and normative composition of sedimentary rocks is widely used for studying their sources and tectonic settings. The normative calculation of the mineral composition of rocks in this study is formulated as a linear programming problem and is solved by means of the simplex method. This enables both simultaneous and successive subtraction of a set of basic minerals from a rock sample represented by its chemical composition {SiO2...LOI}. Such an approach provides a more exact calculation of the contribution of basic minerals in the rock. This mathematical approach is used to study two representative sets of sandstones and fine-grained rocks from a Meso- to Neoproterozoic marginal basin of southeastern Siberia (Uchur–Maya region, Yakutia) and a Pennsylvanian-Lower Permian uplifted continental block in Colorado, USA. The calculated normative mineral compositions of the Siberian sandstones are consistent with the observed modal compositions. These sandstones vary from K- Feldspar rich arkoses at the base of the sequence (the Uchur Group, lower Riphean) to quartz arenites or lithic sandstones and wacke in transgressive successions of the middle-upper Riphean. Arkoses and quartz arenites are dominant in Meso- to Neoproterozoic Siberia. These samples represent craton interior uplifted basement and quartzose, recycled orogen provenance of a stable craton in Rodinia. There are higher but consistent discrepancies between the calculated and observed compositions for the Pennsylvanian to Lower-Permian arkoses and quartz arenites (Sangre de Cristo, Belden, and Maroon Formations). The differences between the predicted and observed mineralogy may be due to uncertainties in the modes in the matrix and cement of the sandstones. This normative program should supplement modal calculations and provide better genetic constructions, especially in case of matrix-rich sandstones. 相似文献
516.
Stability analysis of the Vallcebre translational slide,Eastern Pyrenees (Spain) by means of a GIS 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
The stability of the landslide of Vallcebre has been evaluated by means of a GIS. The landslide mechanism is a translational failure which has been analysed as an infinite slope. Soil strength parameters and groundwater conditions are obtained from laboratory tests and monitoring devices. Geometric parameters necessary to compute the factor of safety at each individual cell are generated by interpolation from the boreholes present in the landslide. The results have been checked with the actual behaviour of the landslide and are consistent. The comparison between a conventional slope stability analysis and the GIS-based approach gives similar results, showing the feasibility of the latter. 相似文献
517.
Rockfall susceptibility has been analysed in mountain cliffs of the Cantabrian Range, North Spain. The main aim of this analysis has been to build a predictive model of rockfall activity from a low number of environmental and geological variables. The rockfall activity has been quantified in a GIS. The cartographic information used shows the spatial distribution of all the recent talus screes as well as their associated source areas in the rock-slopes. The area relation At/Ar (recent talus scree polygon/source basins) in the rock slopes has been used as the rockfall activity indicator. This relation has been validated in 50 pilot rock-slopes and compared with the relation number of recent rock fragments/source basin, obtained from field work. The environmental factors causing rockfall depend on the rock slope situation, and these are: altitude and sun radiation on the rock cliff. The geological factors considered are: lithology, relative position of the main discontinuities with respect to the topographic surface and two morphologic parameters: the roughness and slope gradient. A logistic regression analysis has been applied to a population of 442 limestone and quartzite rock cliffs. The dependent variable is the rockfall activity indicator, which allows the definition of two classes of rock cliff units: low and high activity. The independent variables are altitude, sun radiation (equinox radiation, summer solstice radiation, winter solstice radiation), slope roughness, slope gradient,anisotropy and lithology. Results suggest that it is possible tobuild a valid cartographic predictive model for rockfall activity in mountain rock cliffs from a limited number of easily obtainable variables. The method is especially applicable in massive rock slopes or in regions with uniform rock mass characteristics. 相似文献
518.
Provenance analysis and tectonic setting of the Ordovician clastic deposits in the southern Puna Basin, NW Argentina 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
Provenance studies on Early to Middle Ordovician clastic formations of the southern Puna basin in north-western Argentina indicate that the sedimentary detritus is generally composed of reworked crustal material. Tremadoc quartz-rich turbidites (Tolar Chico Formation, mean composition Qt89 F7 L4) are followed by volcaniclastic rocks and greywackes (Tolillar Formation, mean Qt33 F42 L25). These are in turn overlain by volcaniclastic deposits (mean Qt24 F30 L46) of the Diablo Formation (late Arenig–early Llanvirn) that are intercalated by lava flows. All units were deformed in the Oclóyic Orogeny during the Middle and Late Ordovician. Sandstones of the Tolar Chico Formation are characterized by Th/Sc ratios > 1, La/Sc ratios ≈ 10, whereas associated fine-grained wackes show slightly lower values for both ratios. LREE (light rare earth elements) enrichment of the arenites is ≈ 50× chondrite, Eu/Eu* values are between 0·72 and 0·92, and flat HREE (heavy rare earth elements) patterns indicate a derivation from mostly felsic rocks of typical upper crustal composition. The εNd(t = sed) values scatter around −11 to −9. The calculated Nd-TDM residence ages vary between 1·8 and 2·0 Ga indicating contribution by a Palaeoproterozoic crustal component. The Th/Sc and La/Sc ratios of the Tolillar Formation are lower than those of the Tolar Chico Formation. Normalized REE (rare earth elements) patterns display a similar shape to PAAS (post-Archaean average Australian shale) but with higher abundances of HREEs. Eu/Eu* values range between 0·44 and 1·17, where the higher values reflect the abundance of plagioclase and feldspar-bearing volcanic lithoclasts. Average εNd(t = sed) values are less negative at −5·1, and Nd-TDM are lower at 1·6 Ga. This is consistent with characteristics of regional rocks of upper continental crust composition, which most probably represent the sources of the studied detritus. The rocks of the Diablo Formation have the lowest Th/Sc and La/Sc ratios, lower LREE abundances than the average continental crust and are slightly enriched in HREEs. Eu/Eu* values are between 0·63 and 1·17. The Nd isotopes (εNd(t = sed) = −3 to −1; TDM = 1·2 Ga) indicate that one source component was less fractionated than both the underlying Early Ordovician and the overlying Middle Ordovician units. Synsedimentary vulcanites in the Diablo Formation show the same isotopic composition. Our data indicate that the sedimentary detritus is generally composed of reworked crustal material, but that the Diablo Formation appears to contain ≈ 80% of a less fractionated component, derived from a contemporaneous continental volcanic arc. There are no data indicating an exotic detrital source or the accretion of an exotic block at this part of the Gondwana margin during the Ordovician. 相似文献
519.
Several Triassic and earliest Jurassic sedimentary units from the Colorado Plateau region have distributions of virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) that are highly elongate along the path of apparent polar wander (APW). This suggests that the remanent magnetizations measured in these units were acquired over an extended period of time, possibly approaching 35 m.y., and are not precisely coeval with the stratigraphic age of the rock. Comparison with other paleomagnetic studies shows that the observed elongation is not a general attribute of the age of the rock, nor is it related to paleolatitude. The rocks that yield elongate VGP distributions are dominantly red to brown mudstones, and it is possible that their remanence is dominated by a slowly acquired chemical remanent magnetization, as suggested by Larson et al. [J. Geophys. Res. 87 (1982) 1081] and other authors. However, several superficially similar units from the Colorado Plateau have nearly circular VGP distributions. The process by which remanence is acquired in clastic sedimentary rocks merits further study. 相似文献
520.
Daniel G. Gavin W. Wyatt Oswald Eugene R. Wahl John W. Williams 《Quaternary Research》2003,60(3):356-367
The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog. 相似文献