Net Energy Payback and CO2 Emissions from Three Midwestern Wind Farms: An Update

This paper updates a life-cycle net energy analysis and carbon dioxide emissions analysis of three Midwestern utility-scale wind systems. Both the Energy Payback Ratio (EPR) and CO₂ analysis results provide useful data for policy discussions regarding an efficient and low-carbon energy mix. The EPR is the amount of electrical energy produced for the lifetime of the power plant divided by the total amount of energy required to procure and transport the materials, build, operate, and decommission the power plants. The CO₂ analysis for each power plant was calculated from the life-cycle energy input data. A previous study also analyzed coal and nuclear fission power plants. At the time of that study, two of the three wind systems had less than a full year of generation data to project the life-cycle energy production. This study updates the analysis of three wind systems with an additional four to eight years of operating data. The EPR for the utility-scale wind systems ranges from a low of 11 for a two-turbine system in Wisconsin to 28 for a 143-turbine system in southwestern Minnesota. The EPR is 11 for coal, 25 for fission with gas centrifuge enriched uranium and 7 for gaseous diffusion enriched uranium. The normalized CO₂ emissions, in tonnes of CO₂ per GW_eh, ranges from 14 to 33 for the wind systems, 974 for coal, and 10 and 34 for nuclear fission using gas centrifuge and gaseous diffusion enriched uranium, respectively.     

基于土质边坡塑性极限分析条分法的可靠度计算方法研究

从土塑性极限分析上限定理出发,以土质边坡塑性极限分析条分法为基础,在引入可靠性分析方法(JC法)后,建立了土质边坡塑性极限分析条分法可靠度极限状态方程,并推导得到了塑性极限分析条分法可靠度计算公式。这种方法实现了定值计算向不确定性计算的转变,同时可靠度指标的计算结果具有概率的意义。     

云南元-磨公路某高堑坡灾害发生机制及防治对策

论文根据现场地质调查,应用地质力学分析方法,分析了元-磨公路K235 160~600段高堑坡地质条件、病害发生机制和诱发因素。堑坡所在区域位于红河深大断裂与哀牢山深大断裂所夹持的哀牢山褶皱带内,属强烈侵蚀切割的低中山区,河流下切严重,河流阶地不发育。南溪河及其支流小曼萨河、叉河依附于不同时期生成的构造发育而成,堑坡位于小曼萨河注入南溪河的交汇部位小曼萨河的左岸。小曼萨河及南溪河所夹持的山体,尤其是堑坡所在的部位,已严重破碎、松弛,岩石似大块石堆垒状,坡面上的树木均明显地向小曼萨河方向倾倒。经地质力学配套分析,堑坡所依附的山梁形成于红河深大断裂生成期(γ4),堑坡岩体受多期构造活动的作用,其中NW65/°SW64°及NW63/°SW35°两组倾向临空的构造面控制坡体的稳定。堑坡具备发生变形破坏的地质条件,分析认为由于组成坡体的岩土强度不足而引起既有构造面的大型坍塌。连续降雨及温差是诱发因素。基于目前国内边坡防治技术、施工能力,提出了以“治”或“避”为主的防治对策。     

福建平潭虎潮山滑坡成因机理分析与评价

虎潮山滑坡位于平宏公路12k 704~12k 884段北侧山坡体上,是平潭海岛通往陆地的唯一公路通道。论文通过定性的工程地质分析和定量计算评价了虎潮山坡体稳定性的变化趋势,提出改建公路超挖深切坡脚和持续长时间强降雨导致的孔隙水压力作用是边坡发生滑动破坏的主要因素。     

洪山预测区煤层赋存的可能性分析

分析了洪山预测区西部洪山岩体地质特征及其向外围扩散的范围和程度，研究了北掌勘查区和焦窑煤矿两邻区煤层受岩浆岩影响的程度，认为洪山岩体对预测区煤系及煤层赋存的影响较小，岩体外围仍有煤系赋存。为下一步找煤指明了方向。     

Avalanche Risk During Backcountry Skiing – An Analysis of Risk Factors

Skier-triggered avalanches are the main cause of avalanche accidents in backcountry skiing. The risk of accidents during backcountry skiing was analysed statistically and related to factors such as elevation level, aspect, stability rating and the time of the year. The analysis is based on a database about terrain usage and avalanche accidents from a large heli-skiing operator in Canada, which makes it possible to study the conditional probability of accidents given the recorded pattern of terrain usage. This study shows that the historical risk of accidentally triggering an avalanche greater than size 1 depends highly on the stability rating, with the highest risk occurring during “poor” stability. The risk is greater at high elevations, and it is lower during the late season than earlier on. Skier risk does not depend as much on aspect as may be indicated from avalanche data alone. However, it is relatively high in the N–NE–E sector. These factors are not independent of each other and therefore analyses of combined factors were also performed. Questionnaires and interviews were used to gain knowledge about the terrain selection of professional mountain guides. These results indicate that when selecting terrain, guides first look at the overall shape and size of the terrain, but avalanche history of terrain and inclination are also important factors. Finally, remarks in avalanche reports were analysed, and common human factors identified.