北京721特大暴雨极端性分析及思考（二）极端性降水成因初探及思考

本文是“北京7.21特大暴雨极端性分析及思考”的第二部分,第一部分“观测分析及思考”对此次过程的降水特点、水汽特点、中尺度对流系统（MCS）的环境场条件和发生发展过程进行了分析,指出这是一次极端降水过程。本文进一步从影响降水的因子：降水效率、水汽、上升运动、持续时间等方面进一步探讨极端性降水的成因,所用资料为业务中常用的模式分析和各种观测资料。分析表明,本次过程为典型华北暴雨环流形势,其中高层气流辐散区与低层低涡切变线的耦合是直接诱因;较高的环境相对湿度和湿层较厚,较低的抬升凝结高度和自由对流高度以及热带降水性质提高了本次过程的降水效率;异常大的水汽含量（可降水量达60－80mm）及与其相关的物理量异常,可作为判断极端降水的重要因子;环境大气具有中下层条件性不稳定,上层湿中性层结特性,CAPE值中等,同时上层干侵入增加了对流不稳定,有利于上升运动发展;低涡切变线及华北地形共同触发了MCS的在暖区生成发展;低涡北跳、MCS后向传播特性使暖区MCS东移速度慢,形成“列车效应”,造成降雨持续时间长。本文最后探讨了极端降水的预报思路。     

黄河中游一次致洪暴雨过程的形成机理

利用常规观测资料、NCEP再分析资料等,对黄河中游2013年7月21-22日的致洪暴雨过程的形成机理进行分析。结果发现:1)地面辐合线的形成和维持是本次过程降水强度大和降水集中的主要原因。中尺度雨团和地面中尺度辐合线相对应,地面中尺度辐合线的形成和冷空气扩散补充相对应。第一次冷空气扩散,促使长武站附近地面中尺度辐合线的形成和维持;第二次冷空气补充,促使北洛河流域、无定河流域的地面中尺度辐合线形成并维持。2)暴雨过程发生前,其上空存在干暖盖的结构特征,是能量积累及位势不稳定层结结构建立的关键;暴雨发生过程中干空气侵入对中尺度对流云团起激发作用。3)暴雨、大暴雨发生过程中水汽的垂直输送明显,暴雨区上空1000-100 h Pa相对湿度均在90%以上。     

300 hPa北极涡年际及年代际变化特征的研究

利用NCEP/NCAR 1949—2002年月平均再分析高度场资料,通过线性倾向估计、二项式系数加权平均、Morlet小波分析等诊断方法,系统地讨论了300 hPa北半球极涡面积、强度及中心位置的年际和年代际变化特征,结果表明:(1)年平均北极涡的面积在20世纪70年代中期之前在总的上升趋势中有几次较小的波动,之后在总体下降趋势中有几次较大的起伏;Ⅰ、Ⅱ区的线性变化趋势非常小,Ⅳ区最大,夏季的年际变化相对明显一些,秋季变化最弱,各季节均有线性收缩趋势,冬季幅度最大,秋季最小。(2)年平均极涡强度的年际、年代际变化特征与极涡面积有相似之处,但不同年份存在显著差异;各分区的强度变化与北半球类似(特别是Ⅰ区);夏季的年际变化幅度最大,春、夏季年代际变化的特征明显,秋季最弱。(3)北极涡中心位置通常并不在北极点,各分区极涡总面积所占的百分比有明显差异,且有月际变化,这些差异与海陆热力差异造成的环流的差异密切相关;极涡的主要位置有一定的年际、年代际变化特征;极涡中心位置主要偏向亚洲大陆及太平洋一侧。     

Analysis of a Vortex Precipitation Event over Southwest China Using AIRS and In Situ Measurements

A strong precipitation event caused by the southwest vortex(SWV), which affected Sichuan Province and Chongqing municipality in Southwest China on 10–14 July 2012, is investigated. The SWV is examined using satellite observations from AIRS(Atmospheric Infrared Sounder), in situ measurements from the SWV intensive observation campaign, and MICAPS(Marine Interactive Computer-Aided Provisioning System) data. Analysis of this precipitation process revealed that:(1)heavy rain occurred during the development phase, and cloud water content increased significantly after the dissipation of the SWV;(2) the area with low outgoing longwave radiation values from AIRS correlated well with the SWV;(3) variation of the temperature of brightness blackbody(TBB) from AIRS reflected the evolution of the SWV, and the values of TBB reduced significantly during the SWV's development; and(4) strong temperature and water vapor inversions were noted during the development of the SWV. The moisture profile displayed large vertical variation during the SWV's puissant phase,with the moisture inversion occurring at low levels. The moisture content during the receding phase was significantly reduced compared with that during the developing and puissant phases. The vertical flux of vapor divergence explained the variation of the moisture profile. These results also indicate the potential for using AIRS products in studying severe weather over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings, where in situ measurements are sparse.     

Diagnostic analysis of the evolution mechanism for a vortex over the Tibetan Plateau in June 2008

Based on the final analyses data (FNL) of the Global Forecasting System of the NCEP and the obser- vational radiosonde data, the evolution mechanism of an eastward-moving low-level vortex over the Tibetan Plateau in June 2008 was analyzed. The results show that the formation of the vortex was related to the convergence between the northwesterly over the central Tibetan Plateau from the westerly zone and the southerly from the Bay of Bengal at 500 hPa, and also to the divergence associated with the entrance re- gion of the upper westerly jet at 200 hPa. Their dynamic effects were favorable for ascending motion and forming the vortex over the Tibetan Plateau. Furthermore, the effect of the atmospheric heat source (Q1) is discussed based on a transformed potential vorticity (PV) tendency equation. By calculating the PV budgets, we showed that Q1 had a great inffuence on the intensity and moving direction of the vortex. In the developing stage of the vortex, the heating of the vertically integrated Q1 was centered to the east of the vortex center at 500 hPa, increasing PV tendency to the east of the vortex. As a result, the vortex strengthened and moved eastward through the vertically uneven distribution of Q1. In the decaying stage, the horizontally uneven heating of Q1 at 500 hPa weakened the vortex through causing the vortex tubes around the vortex to slant and redistributing the vertical vorticity field.     

前期春季北太平洋海温异常与冬季北半球极涡的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和NOAA海温资料,用EOF、相关分析等方法,分析了1960—2010年500 hPa和100 hPa等压面上北半球后冬(2月)极涡面积和前春(4月)北太平洋(20~60 °N,120 °E~120 °W)海表温度(SST)的变化特征,揭示了二者的时空联系。结果表明:近50 a来,(1)冬季北半球500 hPa和100 hPa极涡面积整体经历了先扩张后收缩的变化。春季北太平洋SST经历了先降低后升高的变化。其突变时间与500 hPa极涡面积的突变时间相近,均出现在1987年,且与后冬500 hPa大西洋欧洲大陆区(Ⅳ区)极涡面积相关更好。(2)春季北太平洋SST的EOF第一模态空间型表现为PDO,第二模态表现为三极子型,突变分别出现在1980s初期和中期。(3)北太平洋SST与500 hPa Ⅳ区极涡面积相关的空间分布表现为:当前期春季北太平洋中部海温异常偏高(低),南部和北部海温异常偏低(高),使得下一个冬季500 hPa Ⅳ区极涡面积的扩大(缩小),这种空间遥相关型对应着海温的第二模态。北太平洋海温异常以第一模态空间型居多,但是对后冬北半球极涡面积影响大的却是第二模态。(4)当前春北太平洋SST呈第二模态时,对应次年冬季中高纬度对流层温度"上冷下暖",极地东风和绕极西风环流加强,极涡面积偏大。     

陕北北部一次雹暴的特征及成因

本文从分析天气形势、物理量场特征、自动站逐时资料变化特征等人手,对2012年7月8日一9日临汾市局部暴雨天气过程进行了分析。结果表明：（1）此次降水过程是在西风槽东移,副高西进北抬有利的环流背景下产生的。700hPa中尺度低压和低层辐合线以及东路冷空气是本过程的主要触发系统。（2）降水过程中边界层出现了明显的中尺度辐合线和切变线以及低涡环流,短时强降水与小尺度的低涡环流相对应。（3）物理量场上,降雨前期暴雨区有强的上升运动、较高的能量积累和层结不稳定,但低层辐合很弱,中低层湿度只在某层次上达到饱和。     

2008年T213与德国降水数值预报产品对比检验

为了解各种数值预报的误差特点,更好地在预报过程中选择数值预报产品作为参考依据,将中国国家气象中心的T213降水预报与德国降水预报分别进行晴雨预报检验,对2008年5—8月东北地区降水资料进行对比分析。结果表明：两种模式24-120h预报正确率为60％-70％,随着预报时效的增加,正确率呈下降趋势,德国降水预报的正确率高于T213,两种预报漏报率均明显小于空报率,T213漏报率较低,为5％左右,德国降水预报空报率较低,为20％左右。对2008年4-6月出现东北冷涡过程的两种模式降水预报进行对比分析,发现德国降水预报正确率明显高于T213预报,对冷涡降水预报有一定的指示意义。     

高原涡诱生西南涡特大暴雨成因的个例研究

利用多途径探测与再分析资料,通过诊断分析、数值模拟和敏感性试验,对2008年7月20～21日一次高原涡东移诱生西南涡并引发川中特大暴雨的天气过程进行了初步分析,探讨了西南涡特大暴雨发生的中尺度环境场特征,特殊地形和非绝热物理过程在高原涡东移诱生西南涡特大暴雨中的作用。结果表明,高原涡形成后沿高原东北侧下滑,在四川盆地诱生出西南涡,川中特大暴雨在西南涡形成过程中由强中尺度对流系统(MCSs)的活动造成。高原涡东移诱生的低层偏东气流在川西高原东侧地形的动力强迫抬升作用下,释放对流有效位能激发出MCSs产生强降水,降水凝结潜热加热反馈驱动西南涡快速发展。地形的动力作用仅能形成浅薄的西南涡,降水凝结潜热的加入才能使西南涡充分发展。高原涡的发展主要受地面热通量影响,它的发展与否在很大程度上决定西南涡能否形成。盆地周边高大山脉对西南涡的位置分别有不同程度的影响,而盆地周边高大山脉上叠加的中小尺度地形对西南涡和暴雨带的整体位置影响不大,在一定程度上影响暴雨的落区。     

Satellite and ground observations for large-scale air pollution transport in the Yellow Sea region

Large-scale air pollution transport (LSAPT) in the Yellow Sea region and their inflow onto the Korean Peninsula were observed through satellite images and ground measurements. LSAPT includes regional continental air-masses saturated with pollutants originating from China and subsequently landing on or passing through the Korean Peninsula. It is also possible to identify the distribution and transport patterns of LSAPT over the Yellow Sea. The ground concentrations for PM10, PM2.5 and CO measured at Cheongwon, located in the centre of south Korea, were compared with NOAA satellite images. Notably, the episodes observed of the LSAPT show a PM2.5 to PM10 ratio of 74% of the daily maximum concentrations. However, cases of duststorms were clearly distinguished by much higher PM10 concentrations and a ratio of 30% of PM2.5 to PM10 for daily maximum concentrations. For the episode on January 27, 2006, the inflow of a regionally polluted continental air-mass into the central and southwestern regions of the Korean Peninsula was observed sequentially at various ground observatories as well as by satellite. The north airflow dissipated the clouds over Mt. Halla on Jeju Island and further downwind, reducing air pollution and creating a von Kármán vortex.