2016年中国沿海海平面上升显著成因分析及影响

使用中国沿海及西北太平洋区域的水位、海温、气温、气压和风等水文气象资料,详细分析了2016年中国沿海海平面显著升高的成因及影响。分析结果表明:（1）2012-2016年,中国沿海海平面处于准2 a、4 a、准9 a和准19 a周期振荡的高位,几个周期振荡高位叠加,对该时段海平面上升起了一定的作用;（2）2016年,中国沿海气温和海温较1993-2011年的平均值分别高0.7℃与0.5℃,均处于1980年以来高位;气压较1993-2011年的平均值低0.2 hPa;（3）2016年4月、9月、10月和11月,中国沿海海平面均达到1980年以来同期高位,这4个月的风场距平值在东海以南均明显偏大,且以偏南向和向岸风为主,风生流使得海水向岸堆积,沿海长时间以增水为主,对当月局部海平面上升的贡献率达到40%~80%;（4）2016年,中国沿海降水总体偏多,局部区域降水量达到历史同期最高,加上沿海径流量的增加,对沿海局部海平面升高有一定贡献;（5）2016年9-10月,有5个台风相继影响我国南部沿海,持续的风暴潮增水导致台风影响期间的海平面高于当月平均海平面70~360 mm,风暴潮和洪涝灾害给当地造成直接经济损失超过30亿元。     

基于闪锌矿晶体中受激电磁耦子散射产生可调谐太赫兹波的理论研究

基于受激电磁耦子散射原理,采用已报道的利用非线性光学参量振荡方法产生可调谐太赫兹波的实验条件作为理论分析的实验模型,以GaAs,GaP, InP,ZnTe晶体为代表,计算分析了在闪锌矿晶体中参量振荡产生太赫兹波的吸收、增益特性,对输出THz波的调谐特性给出了详尽分析.分析太赫兹波高效耦合输出的腔型结构,并与掺氧化镁铌酸锂晶体组成的太赫兹波参量振荡器做对比.     

The relationship between the canonical ENSO and the phase transition of the Antarctic oscillation at the quasi-quadrennial timescale

A correlation analysis is performed to investigate the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic oscillation (AAO) at the quasi-quadrennial (QQ) timescale.It is found that the cold tongue index (CTI) and the AAO index (AAOI) are negatively correlated with about a 7-month lead-time,while they are positively correlated with about a 15-month lag-time.To further explore this relationship,complex empirical orthogonal function analysis is employed in the QQ sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies from 1951 to 2002.The results indicate that,during the ENSO cycle,there exists one kind of global tropical wave of wavenumber 1 (GTW1) propagating eastward.With the traveling of GTW1,the tropical SLP anomaly tends to intrude into the southern mid-latitudes.Accordingly,three strong signals travel synchronously along the circumSouth-Pacific path,and a relatively weak signal extends eastward and poleward over the South Ocean in the Atlantic-Indian Ocean sector.Following the propagation of these signals,the AAO phase tends to be reversed progressively.As a result,there exists an evident lead-lag correlation between CTI and AAOI.It can be concluded that ENSO plays a key role in the phase transition of AAO at the QQ timescale.It is also noticed that this regular relationship is only evident in the canonical ENSO events,for which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies extend westward from the tropical eastern Pacific.On the other hand,the similar relationships are not found among those atypical ENSO events for which SST anomalies spread eastward from the central Pacific,such as the 1982-1983 ENSO event.     

利用双阳台水管观测资料检测地球自由振荡

基于双阳台水管倾斜仪的数字化观测资料,利用功率谱密度估计方法,在没有对资料进行去固体潮处理的情况下,准确获得了2004年12月26日苏门答腊大地震激发的0S3～0S31基频球型自由振荡。并与PREM模型的理论自由振荡周期进行了对比,发现实测振荡周期与PREM预测的振荡周期相吻合,除0S3、0S4振型的观测周期和PREM模型理论周期的相对误差大于0.3%外,其他振型的观测周期和PREM模型理论周期的相对误差大都集中在0.1%左右。同时还检测到了5个谐频球型振荡和8个环型振荡。     

1989年4月9日射电爆发中的准周期振荡特征

本文对1989年4月9日在2840 MHz上观测到的微波爆发进行分析,发现该爆发存在几十到几百秒的准周期振荡现象。这种现象可能与磁环的准周期现象有关,应遵从磁流体力学规律。通过简单初步分析,获得一些有意义的结果。     

黑洞候选体MAXI J1535-571爆发期间的时变现象

利用“慧眼”(Hard X-ray Modulation Telescope, Insight-HXMT)卫星在2017年9月对黑洞候选体MAXI J1535-571的观测数据,研究了该源在爆发期内的时变现象.当源处于不同的爆发谱态时,功率密度谱的谱型存在明显差异.在硬中间态,有明显的限带噪声(band-limited noise)成分和QPO (Quasi-Periodic Oscillation)成分.分析结果表明:低频限带噪声的特征频率随能量的变化呈现正相关,即软能段光子的特征频率小于硬能段光子的特征频率. 0.1–0.5 Hz频率区间的限带噪声RMS (Root Mean Square)谱在硬中间态和软中间态均出现峰值,且在高能端存在差异,可能是主导噪声RMS的能谱成分占比不同.当谱态由硬中间态过渡到软中间态时, C型QPO的RMS谱保持相似趋势,但限带噪声RMS谱存在谱态依赖现象,暗示着噪声和QPO有不同的起源机制.     

日冕中无衰减振荡的研究进展

日冕中冕环的无衰减横向振荡(简称无衰减振荡)自2012年被发现以来,受到了广泛的关注.无衰减振荡具有在日冕中广泛存在以及振幅无明显变小的特性,使之在解释日冕加热和冕震学诊断上都具有相当的潜力.总结了日冕中无衰减振荡的研究进展,包括观测研究得到的一系列结果、提出的理论和数值模型以及基于无衰减振荡进行冕震学诊断的一些尝试,并且展望了未来可以进一步开展的研究.     

冬季北极涛动与行星波活动的关系

为了进一步认识北极涛动与行星波之间的关系,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料并借助谐波分析、相关分析等方法讨论了北极涛动异常下行星波的活动情况。结果表明:在北极涛动指数强(弱)值年,纬向平均风场在中纬度明显减小(增大),在中高纬度明显增大(减小);行星波1波振幅在低纬度对流层中层和中纬度平流层明显增大(减小),在高纬度平流层明显减小(增大);2波振幅在中纬度对流层明显减小(增大),在高纬度平流层有所增大(减小)。E-P通量反映出在北极涛动强(弱)值年,行星波1波在中高纬度从地面向上传播显著增强(减弱),低纬度波导显著增强(减弱),极地波导显著减弱(增强);2波在中高纬度从地面向上传播显著减弱(增强),低纬度波导和极地波导变化不明显。     

Brief Review of Some CLIVAR-Related Studies in China

The Climate Variability and Predictability （CLIVAR） program is one of the sub-programs of the World Climate Research Program （WCRP）. In this paper, CLIVAR related research in China （2003-2006） is briefly reviewed, including four major components, namely, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillations, interannual variability, decadal variations in East Asia, and global warming simulations.     

Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection,streamflow forecasting and interannual variability

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been linked to climate anomalies throughout the world. This paper presents an overview of global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection and identifies regions where the relationship may be exploited to forecast streamflow several months ahead. The teleconnection is investigated by fitting a first harmonic to 24-month El Niño streamflow composites from 581 catchments worldwide and the potential for forecasting is investigated by calculating the lag correlation between streamflow and two indicators of ENSO. The analyses indicate clear ENSO-streamflow teleconnections in many catchments, some of which are consistent across large geographical regions. Strong and regionally consistent ENSO-streamflow teleconnections are identified in Australia and New Zealand, South and Central America, and weaker signals are identified in some parts of Africa and North America. The results suggest that the ENSO-streamflow relationship and the serial correlation in streamflow can be used to successfully forecast streamflow. The streamflow forecasts can be used to help manage water resources, particularly in systems with high interannual variability in Australia, southern and drier parts of Africa and some areas of North America.