新一代天气雷达站网实时运行监控系统的设计与开发

新一代天气雷达站网实时监控系统运用了现代计算机网络、工业控制、数据远程传输、远程控制等多项技术,充分利用新一代天气雷达自身系统监控、重要参数定标、检测等功能进行实时监控系统的设计开发,实现了站网内雷达运行状态、定标及报警等相关信息的实时监控,对全面掌握分中心责任范围内各雷达站的运行状况,提高技术保障系统的快速反应能力,以及全面、快速、有效地进行新一代天气雷达系统设备的技术保障具有重要意义。该文主要概述了新一代天气雷达站网实时监控系统的主要功能、系统结构及关键技术的实现方法。     

基于雷达组网拼图的定量降水估测算法业务应用及效果评估

基于雷达组网实时的定量降水估测(QPE)及实时评估系统在浙江省杭州市气象局成功实现了业务应用,在评估雷达定量降水估测业务应用效果的同时,根据雷达反射率因子垂直廓线(VPR)特征,探讨分析了不同类型降水过程中雷达定量降水估测的误差源。系统联合杭州、宁波、舟山、温州、金华及衢州6部新一代天气雷达的基数据资料,以及覆盖浙江省且经反距离加权(Inverse Distance Weights,IDW)法实时质量控制的雨量计观测资料,采用先雷达组网拼图再降水估测的方案,集成Z-R关系法和最优插值法反演与校准雷达定量降水估测数据场。4次不同类型降水过程的评估结果表明:(1)在地物遮挡严重的浙江西北部和雷达覆盖较差的浙江南部,降水估测的雷达反射率因子如果源于0℃层亮带,会导致雷达定量降水估测严重高估;如果源于浅薄层云云系的云顶,会造成雷达定量降水估测严重低估。(2)多种降水类型云系并存,但使用相对单一的Z-R关系,会导致梅雨和台风期间雷达定量降水估测的局部高估或低估。(3)伴随飑线系统的强对流以及台风系统的非对称性也是导致雷达定量降水估测误差的重要原因。(4)联合Z-R关系和最优插值法,有效地降低了雷达定量降水估测的系统误差,但仍然存在大量的局部误差。     

基于面平均雨量误差修正的实时洪水预报修正方法

空间集总式水文模型的洪水预报精度会受到面平均雨量估计误差的严重影响.点雨量监测值的误差类型、误差大小以及流域的雨量站点密度和站点的空间分布都会影响到面平均雨量的计算.为提高实时洪水预报精度,本文提出了一种基于降雨系统响应曲线洪水预报误差修正方法.通过此方法估计降雨输入项的误差,从而提高洪水预报精度.此方法将水文模型做为输入和输出之间的响应系统,用实测流量和计算流量之间的差值做为信息,通过降雨系统响应曲线,使用最小二乘估计原理,对面平均雨量进行修正,再用修正后的面平均雨量重新计算出流过程.将此修正方法结合新安江模型使用理想案例进行检验,并应用于王家坝流域的16场历史洪水以及此流域不同雨量站密度的情况下,结果证明均有明显修正效果,且在雨量站密度较低时修正效果更加明显.该方法是一种结构简单且不增加模型参数和复杂度的实时洪水修正的新方法.     

突发型黄土滑坡监测预警理论方法研究——以甘肃黑方台为例

灌溉诱发的黄土滑坡大多数具有明显的突发性特征;斜坡破坏过程变形量小,历时短,具有较大的危险性。由于此类黄土滑坡加速变形阶段经历时间较短,GNSS系统和裂缝计等传统监测手段难以获取加速变形阶段系统完整的监测数据,更难以提前预警。针对这一难题,自主研发了自适应智能变频裂缝仪,它能够根据滑坡变形快慢自动调整采样频率。基于获取的黑方台多个突发型黄土滑坡的全过程变形-时间曲线,对这些变形曲线特征和规律进行分析研究,建立了针对性的黄土滑坡综合预警模型。将变形速率阈值和改进切线角作为滑坡预警的重要指标,建立了4级预警判据,通过自主研发的"地质灾害实时监测预警系统"实现滑坡的实时自动预警,并将预警信息与当地的群防群测信息平台对接,为防灾应急避让提供直接依据。2017年以来已先后6次对黑方台黄土滑坡实施成功预警,避免了重大人员伤亡,取得显著的防灾减灾效果。     

探索首都圈地区深孔地应力测量与实时监测及其在地震地质研究中应用

为提高首都北京的地质安全,在探索首都圈地区深孔地应力测量与实时监测在地震地质研究中应用思路方法的基础上,制定首都圈地区深孔地应力测量与实时监测总体规划,通过不同关键构造部位深孔地应力测量、实时监测以及测量监测结果的对比分析,揭示首都圈地区地壳浅表层现今地应力环境,捕捉中强地震发生的地应力前兆异常。平谷地应力实时监测台站全程记录了2011年3月11日日本9.0级大地震及其前后地应力大小和地下水位相对变化,尤其是大地震发生的前兆应力变化,为地震地质研究积累了宝贵的数据。通过首都圈地区不同关键构造部位地应力测量与实时监测数据的对比分析及2012年和2013年唐山及其周围地区地震发震背景的综合研究,发现唐山—滦县—昌黎一带,尤其是昌黎地区,现今构造活动异常,需要重点关注其未来发展趋势。     

Predicting global landslide spatiotemporal distribution： Integrating landslide susceptibility zoning techniques and real-time satellite rainfall estimates

Landslides triggered by rainfall can possibly be foreseen in real time by jointly using rainfall intensity-duration thresholds and information related to land surface susceptibility. However, no system exists at either a national or a global scale to monitor or detect rainfall conditions that may trigger landslides due to the lack of sufficient ground-based observing network in many parts of the world. Recent advances in satellite remote sensing technology and increasing availability of high-resolution geospatial products around the globe have provided an unprecedented opportunity for such a study. In this paper, a framework for developing a preliminary real-time prediction system to identify where rainfall-triggered landslides will occur is proposed by combining two necessary components： surface landslide susceptibility and a real-time space-based rainfall analysis system （http：//trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov）. First, a global landslide susceptibility map is derived from a combination of semi-static global surface characteristics （digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, land cover classification, etc.） using a GIS weighted linear combination approach. Second, an adjusted empirical relationship between rainfall intensity-duration and landslide occurrence is used to assess landslide hazards at areas with high susceptibility. A major outcome of this work is the availability for the first time of a global assessment of landslide hazards, which is only possible because of the utilization of global satellite remote sensing products. This preliminary system can be updated continuously using the new satellite remote sensing products. This proposed system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary efforts as recommended herein, bears the promise to grow many local landslide hazard analyses into a global decision-making support system for landslide disaster preparedness and mitigation activities across the world.     

北海市高精度特大比例尺航空摄影试验研究

本文介绍了高精度特大比例尺航空摄影的技术难点、国内现状和新型航摄系统的先进功能,论证了高精度航摄质量的可靠性。本试验的成功为我国低空航摄领域填补了一项空白。     

Incorporation of neural network-like processors for GPS navigation

The solution for the receivers position and clock bias using four or more GPS pseudorange measurements involves nonlinear quadratic equations. One of the popular techniques for linearizing the equations and solving them is the least squares (LS) scheme based on an iterative gradient approach. For real-time applications when the solution is to be obtained within a time of the order of 100 ns, a computer often cannot comply with the desired computation time, or high-end computers are too expensive. In this paper various ordinary differential equation formulation schemes, and corresponding circuits of neuron-like analog processors, will be described and several tested in order to ascertain their suitability for GPS navigation processing purposes. The circuits of simple neuron-like analog processors are employed essentially for on-line inversion of matrices, which is usually required for determining LS solutions, as well as dilution of precision (DOP) calculation in standard GPS receivers. Data from single epoch and kinematic positioning experiments will be simulated to validate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme. The properties and performance of the proposed scheme will be assessed and compared to those of the conventional method of matrix inversion.     

Regulation of Tilapia metallothionein gene expression by heavy metal ions

Tilapia is a common fish species inhabiting inland waters and estuarine regions in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, and useful for bio-monitoring of metal pollution. Metallothionein (MT) gene expression in fish tissues has been useful to sub-lethal risk assessment as biomarker of exposure to metal ions in fishes inhabiting metal contaminated area. To investigate metal inductions of Tilapia MT gene expression in vivo, Tilapias were injected with different concentrations of heavy metals and tissues were then removed for quantitative PCR assay using mimic PCR methods. All of the metal ions tested (Cu²⁺, Cd²⁺, Hg²⁺, Ni²⁺, Pb²⁺ and Zn²⁺) were able to induce hepatic MT mRNA levels. Renal MT mRNA levels of Cd²⁺ and Zn²⁺ treated fish was not induced with significant fold induction, however MT mRNA levels in gills were sensitive to the administrations of these metal ions. These data indicated that Tilapia MT mRNA levels in gills and liver are sensitive biomarker of exposure to various metal ions.