Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.     

数字地震台实时处理软件的研制

本软件作为对北京港震机电技术公司软件系统的一个补充，在中文Windows下研制，适用于数字地震台进行数字地震信号实时连续接收和处理。软件的研制充分考虑了台站应用的特点和需求，引入完整的软件工程学理念，采用了面向对象（OOP）的分析设计方法和软件组件技术（COM）。     

地震数据数字化及实时传输

简要地介绍了地震数据国际交换试验系统和台站地震数据实时采集传输系统的组成、各部分的特性与功能、地震数据数字化及实时传输过程。     

内蒙古自治区2000国家大地坐标框架的建立及实时服务

启用2000大地坐标系的必要性;内蒙古2000国家大地坐标框架建立。     

Rapid report of the 8 January 2022 ​MS 6.9 Menyuan earthquake,Qinghai, China

The M_S 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province, west China is the largest earthquake by far in 2022. The earthquake occurs in a tectonically active region, with a background b-value of 0.87 within 100 ?km of the epicenter that we derived from the unified catalog produced by China Earthquake Networks Center since late 2008. Field surveys have revealed surface ruptures extending 22 ?km along strike, with a maximum ground displacement of 2.1 ?m. We construct a finite fault model with constraints from InSAR observations, which showed multiple fault segments during the Menyuan earthquake. The major slip asperity is confined within 10 ?km at depth, with the maximum slip of 3.5 ?m. Near real-time back-projection results of coseismic radiation indicate a northwest propagating rupture that lasted for ～10 ?s. Intensity estimates from the back-projection results show up to a Mercalli scale of IX near the ruptured area, consistent with instrumental measurements and the observations from the field surveys. Aftershock locations (up to January 21, 2022) exhibit two segments, extending to ～20 ?km in depth. The largest one reaches M_S 5.3, locating near the eastern end of the aftershock zone. Although the location and the approximate magnitude of the mainshock had been indicated by previous studies based on paleoearthquake records and seismic gap, as well as estimated stressing rate on faults, significant surface-breaching rupture leads to severe damage of the high-speed railway system, which poses a challenge in accurately assessing earthquake hazards and risks, and thus demands further investigations of the rupture behaviors for crustal earthquakes.     

Factors controlling the seasonality of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

By analyzing observational data, previous studies have indicated that the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is active during the boreal winter but relatively weak during the boreal summer. However, the factors that control seasonal MJO variation are not clear. To quantitatively understand the relative contributions of the occurrence frequency of enhanced MJO events and their averaged strength and lifespan to seasonal MJO amplitude, we defined the MJO events of 1979–2014 and analyzed their features in different seasons by using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and the newly proposed RMM-r index. The results indicate that the MJO events show a higher frequency of occurrence, a stronger intensity and a longer duration during the boreal winter (Dec.–Feb.) and spring (Mar.–May). However, the frequency, strength and lifespan of MJO events are all reduced during the boreal summer (Jun.–Aug.) and autumn (Sep.–Nov.). The enhanced MJO events in winter–spring also show a large ratio of variance for eastward to westward components. To elucidate how large-scale background fields affect seasonal MJO variation, a series of sensitivity experiments was conducted by using a 2.5-layer model that can simulate MJO-like features. It is found that the variation in low-level moisture (vertical wind shear) is the key large-scale factor affecting the seasonal variation in MJO strength (in propagation). In comparison with the summer–autumn seasons when the MJO is relatively weakened, the relatively abundant low-level moisture near the equator during boreal winter–spring may strengthen the development of MJO convection and circulation, whereas the relatively weak easterly shear (or the westerly shear anomaly) is conducive to the enhancement of an eastward-propagating MJO component.     

星基增强系统L1频段信息服务性能分析

在北斗全球导航服务进程中,北斗星基增强服务的建设是我国卫星导航事业自身建设和不断完善发展的内在需求,更是我国卫星导航系统标准化建设的必然要求。本文基于星基增强信息定位原理,研究并实现星基增强系统的标准定位算法,采用IGS站点数据及增强信息电文,对WAAS与EGNOS系统服务性能进行分析评估,在“陆态网络”数据处理中,加入SBAS信息也可对相关误差进行改正。结果表明,加入播发的差分改正信息定位精度相对于伪距单点定位显著提高,平面方向统计均方根残差优于1m,高程方向优于1.2m;研究发现受地面参考站分布区域以及电离层、观测星座的影响,WAAS和EGNOS在定位服务性能覆盖范围内均表现出一定的区域性。从总体分析来看,不同系统空间段GEO卫星播发SBAS消息特性不一,均满足单频定位需求,EGNOS稳定性低于WAAS系统,播发消息时有中断现象,在实时单频定位性能方面,WAAS的服务性能较EGNOS得到更优的解算结果。     

BIM技术在震后灾区居民装配式建筑设计中的应用

为解决震后灾区地形复杂,建筑建设困难问题,将BIM技术应用在震后灾区居民装配式建筑设计中,基于BIM体系框架设计震后灾区居民装配式建筑建造流程,通过设计阶段、工厂预制阶段、运输阶段以及安装阶段完成震后灾区居民装配式建筑项目的构建,采用Revit软件和Tekla软件构建装配式建筑的建筑模型和结构模型,利用BIM技术的可视化、参数化以及高合作性优势,优化模型以及构件,再通过Navisworks软件依据建筑模型实现建筑工程的碰撞检测,减少施工过程中的变更,降低建筑工程施工成本;通过基于BIM的震后建筑进度管理模型,实现建筑进化计划编制以及进度控制;利用Lumion软件输入工程材质实现建筑项目的实时漫游,直观了解装配式建筑效果。     

重磁处理解释系统软件设计与关键实现技术

重磁探测是金属矿勘探的主要手段之一,其处理和解释方法技术已得到很大的发展,研发与其相适应的重磁软件是重要的研究课题.在国家863课题的支持下,我们设计并研发了重磁处理解释集成化软件系统.在分析国内外现有软件不足的基础上,我们对重磁软件系统所应具有的操作行为进行了针对性的设计,提出了具有特色的功能设计思路,并进行了针对性的研发实现.为满足深部矿产资源勘探需求和精细化解释需要,提出了更加具有针对性的软件设计解决方案,研发了特色的处理解释模块,核心突出软件的实时可视化和协同交互操作,使软件系统能高效地服务于使用者的目标任务.在优化改进处理、正反演算法的基础上,提出多核并行化方案并实现,提高了软件整体运行速度.最终形成了将数据管理、数据可视化、数据处理及解释有机结合的特色软件系统,为金属矿探测提供了一个高效、有力的工具.     

高频GNSS形变波的震相识别：模拟实验与实例分析

高频GNSS震时形变波震相及识别是GNSS地震学的重要内容.在实时数据处理基础上,本文利用振动台的高频GNSS观测实验,并结合近期部分大震的高频GNSS形变波震相特征进行研究.数据处理结果表明,实时处理与事后处理的精度在同一量级,且与采样率无关.通过与同址观测强震仪和地震计记录的对比及特定震相的频谱分析,发现高频GNSS可完整记录P波、S波、Love波及Rayleigh波震相,影响震相记录的主要因素是GNSS定位精度与震级,而仅当震中距很小时,采样率将产生一定影响.研究结果得出：基于地震波传播规律,利用高频GNSS台阵记录的形变波空间分段特征,结合震相运动轨迹及其他地震波记录,可实现实时高频GNSS形变波的震相识别.