On-line estimation of nonlinear physical systems

Recursive algorithms for estimating states of nonlinear physical systems are presented. Orthogonality properties are rediscovered and the associated polynomials are used to linearize state and observation models of the underlying random processes. This requires some key hypotheses regarding the structure of these processes, which may then take account of a wide range of applications. The latter include streamflow forecasting, flood estimation, environmental protection, earthquake engineering, and mine planning. The proposed estimation algorithm may be compared favorably to Taylor series-type filters, nonlinear filters which approximate the probability density by Edgeworth or Gram-Charlier series, as well as to conventional statistical linearization-type estimators. Moreover, the method has several advantages over nonrecursive estimators like disjunctive kriging. To link theory with practice, some numerical results for a simulated system are presented, in which responses from the proposed and extended Kalman algorithms are compared.     

随机地震模型及反应谱分析

本文以实际地震加速度的频谱特性和相位谱特性为依据，仿概率统计理论中的高斯概率密度函数，建立了随机地震加速度频数学模型。     

Terrestrial vegetation carbon sinks in China, 1981―2000

Using China's ground observations, e.g., forest inventory, grassland resource, agricultural statistics, climate, and satellite data, we estimate terrestrial vegetation carbon sinks for China's major biomes between 1981 and 2000. The main results are in the following: (1) Forest area and forest biomass carbon (C) stock increased from 116.5×106 ha and 4.3 Pg C (1 Pg C = 1015 g C) in the early 1980s to 142.8×106 ha and 5.9 Pg C in the early 2000s, respectively. Forest biomass carbon density increased form 36.9 Mg C/ha (1 Mg C = 106 g C) to 41.0 Mg C/ha, with an annual carbon sequestration rate of 0.075 Pg C/a. Grassland, shrub, and crop biomass sequestrate carbon at annual rates of 0.007 Pg C/a, 0.014―0.024 Pg C/a, and 0.0125―0.0143 Pg C/a, respectively. (2) The total terrestrial vegetation C sink in China is in a range of 0.096―0.106 Pg C/a between 1981 and 2000, accounting for 14.6%―16.1% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by China's industry in the same period. In addition, soil carbon sink is estimated at 0.04―0.07 Pg C/a. Accordingly, carbon sequestration by China's terrestrial ecosystems (vegetation and soil) offsets 20.8%―26.8% of its industrial CO2 emission for the study period. (3) Considerable uncertainties exist in the present study, especially in the estimation of soil carbon sinks, and need further intensive investigation in the future.     

场地土的随机地震反应分析

研究了剪切模量随深度呈线性变化时场地土的随机地震反应分析方法, 分别建立了基岩输入地震动加速度功率谱函数为白噪声和过滤白噪声时场地土的随机地震反应分析理论。     

随机-模糊处理方法在岩石力学指标统计及岩组划分中的应用

探讨了随机 模糊处理方法在岩石力学指标统计和岩组定量划分中的应用。文中对计算中的隶属函数取值及迭代方式进行了深入讨论。通过计算结果的比较分析, 认为随机 模糊处理方法更符合实际, 并优于其他方法。最后作者提出了岩组定性划分 岩石样本参数的随机 模糊统计分析 岩组定量划分及参数重新统计的分析程序。     

River flow mass exponents with fractal channel networks and rainfall

An important problem in hydrologic science is understanding how river flow is influenced by rainfall properties and drainage basin characteristics. In this paper we consider one approach, the use of mass exponents, in examining the relation of river flow to rainfall and the channel network, which provides the primary conduit for transport of water to the outlet in a large basin. Mass exponents, which characterize the power-law behavior of moments as a function of scale, are ideally suited for defining scaling behavior of processes that exhibit a high degree of variability or intermittency. The main result in this paper is an expression relating the mass exponent of flow resulting from an instantaneous burst of rainfall to the mass exponents of spatial rainfall and that of the network width function. Spatial rainfall is modeled as a random multiplicative cascade and the channel network as a recursive replacement tree; these fractal models reproduce certain types of self-similar behavior seen in actual rainfall and networks. It is shown that under these modeling assumptions the scaling behavior of flow mirrors that of rainfall if rainfall is highly variable in space, and on the other hand flow mirrors the structure of the network if rainfall is not so highly variable.     

随机地震动场激励下拱坝多点输入的抗震可靠度分析

本文首次将空间随机地震场输入用于拱坝随机振动分析之中，与拱坝三维动力学有限元法结合，完成了三维拱坝在空间随机地震动场作用下的随机振动分析方法及算法的研究，另外考虑动力和静力的叠加，提出了三维空间随机地震动场的拱坝抗震可靠度分析方法，最后编制了相应的程序，对小湾拱坝进行了抗震可靠度分析，并与随机变量的结果进行了比较。     

A hyperspectral experiment over tropical forests based on the EO-1 orbit change and PROSAIL simulation

ABSTRACT

We designed a unique hyperspectral experiment from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) orbit change to evaluate solar illumination effects over tropical forests in Brazil. Ten nadir-viewing Hyperion images collected over a fixed site and period of the year (July to August) were selected for analysis. We evaluated variations in reflectance and in 16 narrowband vegetation indices (VIs) with increasing solar zenith angle (SZA) from the pre-drift (2004–2008) to the EO-1 drift period (2011–2016). To detect changes in reflectance and shadows, we applied spectral mixture analysis (SMA) and principal component analysis (PCA) and calculated the similarity spectral angle (θ) between the vegetation spectra measured with variable SZA. The magnitude of the illumination effects was also evaluated from change-point analysis and nonparametric Mann-Whitney U tests applied over the time series. Finally, we complemented our experiment using the PROSAIL model to simulate the VIs variation with increasing SZA resultant from satellite drift. The results showed significant changes in Hyperion reflectance and VIs, especially when the EO-1 crossed the study area at earlier times and larger SZA in 2015 (9:05 a.m.; SZA = 59°) and 2016 (8:30 a.m.; SZA = 67°). Compared to the pre-drift period (10:30 a.m.; SZA = 45°), the SZA differences of 14° (2015) and 22° (2016) increased the shade fractions and decreased the vegetation brightness. PCA separated the pre-drift and drift reflectance datasets, showing shifts in scores due to changes in brightness. θ increased with SZA, indicating changes in the shape of the vegetation spectra with drift. For most VIs, the change-point analysis indicated 2015 (SZA = 59°) as the predominant year of detected changes. Compared to the EO-1 original orbit, the Plant Senescence Reflectance Index (PSRI), Anthocyanin Reflectance Index (ARI) and Structure Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) presented the largest positive changes during drift, while the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) had the largest negative changes. The effect size of the illumination geometry on these VIs was large, as indicated by increasing values of the Cohen’s r metric toward 2016. The anisotropy of the Hyperion VIs was generally consistent with that from PROSAIL in the simulated pre-drift and drift periods. Focusing on structural indices, it affected the relationships between VIs and simulated leaf area index (LAI) at large SZA.     

Improvement of spatial interpolation accuracy of daily maximum air temperature in urban areas using a stacking ensemble technique

ABSTRACT

The reliable and robust monitoring of air temperature distribution is essential for urban thermal environmental analysis. In this study, a stacking ensemble model consisting of multi-linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF) optimized by the SVR is proposed to interpolate the daily maximum air temperature (T_max) during summertime in a mega urban area. A total of 10 geographic variables, including the clear-sky averaged land surface temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index, were used as input variables. The stacking model was compared to Cokriging, three individual data-driven methods, and a simple average ensemble model, all through leave-one-station-out cross validation. The stacking model showed the best performance by improving the generalizability of the individual models and mitigating the sensitivity to the extreme daily T_max. This study demonstrates that the stacking ensemble method can improve the accuracy of spatial interpolation of environmental variables in various research fields.     

转移概率预报方法在霜冻预报中的应用

本文在简介转移概率预报方法及最大概率预报原理的基础上,分析了吕梁市1957年～2000年霜冻初、终日期各随机时间序列状态之间的转换规律,结合各序列的初始分布,建立预报模型,并对1995年～2004年的初、终霜日期进行了预报效果检验。结果表明,该方法预报效果好,使用性强,具有良好的应用前景。