中尺度暴雨集合预报系统研发中的初值扰动试验

针对2006年5月24～25日一次暴雨过程, 通过一系列初值扰动试验探讨实际业务中建立集合预报系统的方法。运用45 km的WRF模式构建一个11个成员的集合预报系统来比较分析不同的扰动方案、 扰动的空间结构和扰动振幅对集合预报的影响, 结果表明： （1）初值扰动的空间结构对暴雨集合预报的离散度影响很关键, 而扰动振幅的影响却居次要地位。具有动力学结构的孵化扰动明显优于随机扰动。（2）集合预报比单一控制预报提供了更有价值的预报信息。例如在该个例控制预报中漏报的湖北监利强降水中心, 在集合预报中有20%的概率, 并且实况被包含在集合预报的预报范围之中。集合平均预报也明显优于控制预报\.例如矫正了在控制预报中明显虚报的鄂东北的大暴雨中心, 且集合平均预报的暴雨中心落在实际观测暴雨中心的附近。（3）集合离散度较好地反映了实际降水过程的可预报性。例如应用孵化扰动, 其离散度的空间结构同降水预报误差的空间分布大致对应。     

Millennial‐scale fire and vegetation history from a mesic hardwood forest of southeastern Wisconsin,USA

High‐resolution charcoal analysis of lake sediment cores was used to reconstruct the fire history from two sites in a mesic hardwood forest of south‐eastern Wisconsin located in the Kettle Moraine State Forest. Pollen data from the region indicate that the sites, which lie within 5 km of each other, have had a consistent presence of mesic hardwood forest for the last 6500 years. A pollen record from one of the sites confirmed the regional vegetation history and the charcoal analysis indicated that fire frequency at each site was temporally linked to regional drought. Periods of high fire occurrence occurred in connection with a region‐wide drought 4200 years ago and, over the last 2000 years, shorter‐scale regional droughts were centred at 1800, 1650, 1100, 1000, 800, 700 and 600 cal a BP. The fire histories indicate that the last 1000 years have had lower fire frequencies than the previous 6500 years and suggest that the mesic hardwood forests may be resilient to increases in fire that may result from future climate change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hortonian overland flow from Japanese forest plantations—an aberration,the real thing,or something in between?

There is a growing opinion that poorly managed plantation forests in Japan are contributing to increased storm runoff and erosion. Here we present evidence to the contrary from runoff plots at two scales (hillslope and 0·5 × 2 m plots) for several forest conditions in the Mie and Nariki catchments. Runoff coefficients from small plots in untended hinoki forests were variable but typically higher than from better managed or deciduous forests during small storms at Nariki; at Mie, runoff during small events was highly variable from all small plots but runoff coefficients were similar for hinoki plots with and without understory vegetation, while the deciduous plot had lower runoff coefficients. Storm runoff was less at the hillslope scale than the plot scale in Mie; these results were more evident at sites with better ground cover. During the largest storms at both sites, differences in runoff due to forest condition were not evident regardless of scale. Dynamic soil moisture tension measurements at Nariki indicated that during a large storm, flow in the upper organic‐rich and root‐permeated soil horizons was 3·2 times higher than measured overland runoff from a small hinoki plot with poor ground cover and 8·3 times higher than runoff from a deciduous forest plot. On the basis of field observations during storms, at least a portion of the monitored ‘Hortonian overland flow’ was actually occurring in this near‐surface ‘biomat’. Therefore our field measurements in both small and large plots potentially included biomat flow in addition to short‐lived Hortonian runoff. Because overland flow decreased with increasing scale, rill erosion did not occur on hillslopes. Additionally, runoff coefficients were not significantly different among cover conditions during large storms; thus, the ‘degraded’ forest conditions appear not to greatly enhance peak flows or erosion potential at larger scales, especially when biomat flow is significant. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

调频加网中的随机问题

调频加网是印刷中最新发展的一项极其重要的技术，它对于提高印刷品质量有着非常重要的作用。随机数产生的速度和质量决定着调频网点的质量，文中主要讨论了调频加网算法中随机数的产生以及随机数发生器的设计，重要讨论了乘同余随机数发生器。     

Resonance and criticality measure of ground motions via probabilistic critical excitation method

Resonant characteristics of recorded ground motions are investigated and a new measure of criticality of ground motions is proposed. Four classes of recorded ground motions, i.e., (i) near fault motions (rock records), (ii) near fault motions (soil records), (iii) long duration motions (rock records) and (iv) long duration motions (soil records), are taken from Abrahamson N, Ashford S, Elgamal A, Kramer S, Seible F, Somerville P, Proc of First PEER Workshop on Characterization of Special Source Effects, 1998. It is shown that resonant characteristics of recorded ground motions can be captured appropriately by means of the probabilistic critical excitation method due to the present author regardless of the type of ground motions and the distance between the critical response and the actual one can be a new measure of criticality of ground motions. The time-averaged approximate treatment of nonstationary ground motions as stationary ones is shown to be adequate for structures with shorter natural periods subjected to long duration ground motions.     

马尔柯夫场在影像纹理模拟中的应用

本文介绍了马尔柯夫随机场（简称ＭＲＦ）模拟影像纹理的原理和算法，用本文提出的算法，作了模拟分形纹理的许多实验：模拟纹理的自相似性试验；ＭＲＦ模型参数对影像纹理的控制作用等试验。试验结果表明算法正确，ＭＲＦ是模拟影像纹理的一个好模型。     

石结构抗震可靠度的分析与应用

在文献［１］的基础上进一步探讨了石结构体系抗震动力反应分析的计算方法，给出了场地地震条件下结构在使用期间内抗震可靠度的应用实例。定量分析的结果表明，严格地控制结构高度、层数和砂浆强度等级等指标，是提高多层石结构抗震能力的有效措施。     

Assimilation of fuzzy data by the BME method

Modern spatiotemporal geostatistics provides a powerful framework for generation of predictive maps over a spatiotemporal domain by accounting for general knowledge to define a space of plausible events and then restricting this space of plausible events to be consistent with available site-specific knowledge. The Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method is one of the most widely used modern geostatistics methods. BME results from assigning probabilities of plausible events based on general knowledge through information maximization and then applying operational Bayesian conditionalization that can explicitly assimilate stochastic representations of various uncertain (soft) data bases. The paper demonstrates that fuzzy data sets can be indirectly assimilated by BME through a two-step process: (a) reinterpretation of the fuzzy data as probabilistic through a generalized defuzzification procedure, and (b) efficient assimilation of the probabilistic results of generalized defuzzification by the BME method. A numerical demonstration involves site-specific probabilistic results obtained from the generalized defuzzification of a simulated fuzzy data set and general knowledge that includes the spatial mean trend and correlation structure models. The parameters of these models can be inferred from the hard data equivalent values of the probabilistic results. Accordingly, details of inference based on probabilistic soft data are also considered.     

中国西部亚高山针叶林资源查询系统

在搜集了中国西部亚高山针叶林主要分布区的行政区划信息及各针叶树种的分布信息的基础上，利用流行桌面GIS软件AreView V3．2的Avenue开发出中国西部亚高山针叶林资源查询系统，该系统既可以查询任意一个属或种的分布情况，又可以查询多个属、种(同属的和不同属)的交叉分布情况，并且查询结果可以立即反映到电子地图上，图例也能立即更新。并且在查询单一种的分布情况时，还可以查询其相关图像、文本、视频等信息，大大丰富了种的查询内容。同时，该系统也可查询任意一个或多个省级行政区或县级行政区的属种分布及其组合情况，从而使得行政区和亚高山针叶林属、种的双向查询变得非常简单。另外，本系统具有很强的可扩展性，可以轻松实现亚高山针叶树种、行政区及图像、文本、视频的扩充，并且扩充的内容可以立即使用，达到随时扩充、随时使用的目的。