超深水钻井作业隔水管顶张力确定方法

对于深水和超深水钻井作业,确定钻井隔水管系统顶张力是钻前设计非常重要的工作。研究三种隔水管系统顶张力确定方法,分别是理论方法、基于隔水管系统底部残余张力方法和基于下放隔水管系统的最大钩载方法。算例计算与超深水钻井实践对比表明,在相同的隔水管系统配置下,三种方法计算结果都接近于实际钻井作业时的顶张力设定值。但研究认为,基于下放最大钩载的顶张力计算方法简单实用,推荐作为优选方法。     

大菱鲆亲子鉴定的微卫星多重PCR技术建立及应用

用8个微卫星标记组合建立了2个微卫星多重PCR体系,对大菱鲆7个人工选育家系进行了系谱认证、亲子鉴定和遗传多样性研究。2个多重PCR体系中8个微卫星位点共检测到等位基因49个,每个位点等位基因数为3~8个。根据已知亲本及子代基因型,成功推断出了3个缺失亲本的基因型。在双亲未知的情况下2个多重PCR的8个微卫星位点累积排除概率是96.58%,已知1个亲本时累积排除率为99.71%,亲子鉴定准确率为96.42%。采用70个个体进行双盲验证,利用UPGMA法对7个家系的70个体进行了聚类分析,同一家系95.71%的个体聚类分析结果与系谱来源一致。Cervus 2.0软件亲子鉴定结果表明亲子鉴定准确率为92.86%。2个多重PCR体系的建立为大菱鲆不同家系混养后的亲子鉴定、系谱分析和分子辅助家系管理提供了技术手段。     

伪近邻方法在ARMA系统阶数判别中的应用

从相空间重构的角度,提出利用伪近邻方法判别ＡＲＭＡ 系统的总阶数。该方法可在数据量较小和阈值固定的情况下判别ＡＲＭＡ 系统总阶数。数值计算表明,使用该方法判别线性ＡＲＭＡ系统总阶数,取得了比较满意的结果。     

环境样品中甲基汞的检测方法综述

综述了常用的环境样品中甲基汞的检测方法和检测步骤,认为在实际的甲基汞检测过程中,选择或评价所选用检测方法的原则通常是,在确保检测限的基础上,首选考虑检测结果的精确度如何,而快捷方便、经济实惠的检测技术也是现实运用中的实际需要。作为定量检测,GC分别与AAS、AES、AFS的联用是目前较常用的技术,而与ICP-MS或ID-ICPMS的联用,在今后的实际检测中将得到更广泛的运用。生物传感器检测到的汞一般是生物可利用的汞,降低其检测限并将其作为对污染水体与沉积物检测的重要方法,也是今后研究的重点。总之,在人类对环境安全和身体健康日益重视的今天,发展高灵敏度、高准确度、快速方便和低成本的检测技术是未来甲基汞检测的重要发展方向。     

内湾沉积物生物硅化学测定法的实验条件探讨

对国内外已经建立的几种生物硅的测定方法进行简要的评述,并详细地对内湾沉积物中生物硅化学提取法的条件选取进行实验探讨,对低生物硅含量的内湾沉积物测定提出了较优的条件。     

Jason-1 Precision Orbit Determination by Combining SLR and DORIS with GPS Tracking Data

With the implementation of the Jason-1 satellite altimeter mission, the goal of reaching the 1-cm level in orbit accuracy was set. To support the Precision Orbit Determination (POD) requirements, the Jason-1 spacecraft carries receivers for DORIS (Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite) and GPS (Global Positioning System), as well as a retroreflector for SLR (Satellite Laser Ranging). The overall orbit accuracy for Jason will depend on the quality and the relative weighting of the available tracking data. In this study, the relative importance of the SLR, DORIS, and GPS tracking data is assessed along with the most effective parameterization for accounting for the unmodeled accelerations through the application of empirical accelerations. The optimal relative weighting for each type of tracking data was examined. It is demonstrated that GPS tracking alone is capable of supporting a radial orbit accuracy for Jason-1 at the 1-cm level, and that including SLR tracking provides additional benefits. It is also shown that the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) gravity model GGM01S provides a significant improvement in the orbit accuracy and reduction in the level of geographically correlated orbit errors.     

Quantitative characterization of connectivity and conductivity of sandstone carriers during secondary petroleum migration,applied to the Third Member of Eocene Shahejie Formation,Dongying Depression,Eastern China

Studies on migration pathways remain qualitative, albeit extensive quantification of migration forcing. In this study, hydrocarbon carriers are defined as carrier units and their corresponding carrier beds for the Third Member of Eocene Shahejie Formation in the Dongying Depression, Bohai Bay Basin, eastern China, on the basis of their lithofacies and physical properties, spatial relationships, and data availability; secondary migration conduits are then quantified. A carrier unit is defined as a stratigraphic unit that contains microscopically porous and permeable carrier beds and is covered by regional seals. The carrier beds are macroscopically and physically connected to each other within a carrier unit and are hydrodynamically connected during secondary migration. A method of quantifying sandstone carrier units using common physical properties is developed. First, a carrier unit containing potential carrier beds is identified on the basis of lithofacies and their lateral changes. Second, physical connectivity of sandstone carrier beds is assessed on the basis of percolation theory. Third, the hydrodynamic connectivity of a sandstone carrier unit is analyzed using effective parameters that may reflect the hydraulic circulation in the carrier unit. Last, the conductivity of a sandstone carrier bed is quantitatively characterized using appropriate physical property parameters. The results for sandstone carrier units in the Third Member of the Shahejie Formation are used in numerical models addressing Pleistocene secondary migration. The model results explain the discovered accumulation and hydrocarbon shows well; and the model predictions on exploration targets have been confirmed by drilling.     

云南省潜在震源区综合统计判定之一

本文将云南省地震局多年来积累的关于中强震发生的地质构造、地貌、地球物理场、地形变等特征基础资料,用于Cora-3算法的模式识别,得出云南省潜在震源区的背景指标,结果是比较理想的。“投票”结果表明,80%的学习集D类对象仍被识别为D类,85%的学习集N类对象仍被识别为N类,控制试验的结果也表明识别结果是比较稳定和可靠的。     

Sensitivity of GPS and GLONASS orbits with respect to resonant geopotential parameters

The Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) has been involved in the processing of combined GPS/GLONASS data during the International GLONASS Experiment (IGEX). The resulting precise orbits were analyzed using the program SORBDT. Introducing one satellites positions as pseudo-observations, the program is capable of fitting orbital arcs through these positions using an orbit improvement procedure based on the numerical integration of the satellites orbit and its partial derivative with respect to the orbit parameters. For this study, the program was enhanced to estimate selected parameters of the Earths gravity field. The orbital periods of the GPS satellites are —in contrast to those of the GLONASS satellites – 2:1 commensurable (P _Sid:P _GPS) with the rotation period of the Earth. Therefore, resonance effects of the satellite motion with terms of the geopotential occur and they influence the estimation of these parameters. A sensitivity study of the GPS and GLONASS orbits with respect to the geopotential coefficients reveals that the correlations between different geopotential coefficients and the correlations of geopotential coefficients with other orbit parameters, in particular with solar radiation pressure parameters, are the crucial issues in this context. The estimation of the resonant geopotential terms is, in the case of GPS, hindered by correlations with the simultaneously estimated radiation pressure parameters. In the GLONASS case, arc lengths of several days allow the decorrelation of the two parameter types. The formal errors of the estimates based on the GLONASS orbits are a factor of 5 to 10 smaller for all resonant terms. AcknowledgmentsThe authors would like to thank all the organizations involved in the IGS and the IGEX campaign, in particular those operating an IGS or IGEX observation site and providing the indispensable data for precise orbit determination.     

Improved estimators of correlation and R2 for skewed hydrologic data

ABSTRACT

The coefficient of determination R² and Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = R are standard metrics in hydrology for the evaluation of the goodness of fit between model simulations and observations, and as measures of the degree of dependence of one variable upon another. We show that the standard product moment estimator of ρ, termed r, while well-behaved for bivariate normal data, is upward biased and highly variable for bivariate non-normal data. We introduce three alternative estimators of ρ which are nearly unbiased and exhibit much less variability than r for non-normal data. We also document remarkable upward bias and tremendous increases in variability associated with r using both synthetic data and daily streamflow simulations from 905 calibrated rainfall–runoff models. We show that estimators of ρ = R accounting for skewness are needed for daily streamflow series because they exhibit high variability and skewness compared to, for example, monthly/annual series, where r should perform well.