青藏高原北部地区地震基本活动状态定量评价

基于区域构造背景、应力场状态及动力学环境等,将青藏高原北部地区划分为4个相对独立的统计单元,即祁连山地震带、甘东南地区、柴达木一共和地块及库玛地震带.通过地震频度和b值拟合确定了各个地区不同下限震级的地震目录完整性起始时间;确定了各构造单元中强以上地震活跃与平静交替活动的特征;定量计算了在平均状态中强以上地震活动特征参数及平静阶段与活跃阶段地震活动特征参数;分别获得了各个区域在平均、活跃与平静状态下的小震活动状态参数.     

Towards quantitative evaluation of gas injection using time‐lapse seismic data

Of particular concern in the monitoring of gas injection for the purposes of storage, disposal or improved oil recovery is the exact spatial distribution of the gas volumes in the subsurface. In principle this requirement is addressed by the use of 4D seismic data, although it is recognized that the seismic response still largely provides a qualitative estimate of moved subsurface fluids. Exact quantitative evaluation of fluid distributions and associated saturations remains a challenge to be solved. Here, an attempt has been made to produce mapped quantitative estimates of the gas volume injected into a clastic reservoir. Despite good results using three accurately repeated seismic surveys, time‐delay and amplitude attributes reveal fine‐scale differences though large‐scale agreement in the estimated fluid movement. These differences indicate disparities in the nature of the two attributes themselves, which can be explained by several possible causes. Of most impact are the effects of processing and migration, wave interference effects and noise from non‐repeatability of the seismic surveys. This subject highlights the need for a more careful consideration in 4D acquisition, amplitude processing and use of true amplitude preserving attributes in quantitative interpretation.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

大菱鲆亲子鉴定的微卫星多重PCR技术建立及应用

用8个微卫星标记组合建立了2个微卫星多重PCR体系,对大菱鲆7个人工选育家系进行了系谱认证、亲子鉴定和遗传多样性研究。2个多重PCR体系中8个微卫星位点共检测到等位基因49个,每个位点等位基因数为3~8个。根据已知亲本及子代基因型,成功推断出了3个缺失亲本的基因型。在双亲未知的情况下2个多重PCR的8个微卫星位点累积排除概率是96.58%,已知1个亲本时累积排除率为99.71%,亲子鉴定准确率为96.42%。采用70个个体进行双盲验证,利用UPGMA法对7个家系的70个体进行了聚类分析,同一家系95.71%的个体聚类分析结果与系谱来源一致。Cervus 2.0软件亲子鉴定结果表明亲子鉴定准确率为92.86%。2个多重PCR体系的建立为大菱鲆不同家系混养后的亲子鉴定、系谱分析和分子辅助家系管理提供了技术手段。     

云南地区地震序列分类的定量讨论

本文通过对云南地区１９６５提以来１１６次大小地震序列的清理和归纳，引入了地震序列分类的时空强定量尺度，提出；表明震源区进人失稳状态的前震序列主要发生在主震前１０天，前震序列的最大震级５．５级；震群型地震序列在时间、地点上的确定应与震级有关，在时间上以同在地震孕期内为宜，７、６、５级分别不超过１年、半年、３个月，在地点上以同在地震孕震区内为２，７、６、５级分别不超过１００、５０、３０公里，震级上以小子等于０．５级为宜；主余震地震序列和孤立型地震序列的最大震级差分别是２．９级和３．３级     

Computer Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative resource estimation

The method of making quantitative assessments of mineral resources sufficiently detailed for economic analysis is outlined in three steps. The steps are (1) determination of types of deposits that may be present in an area, (2) estimation of the numbers of deposits of the permissible deposit types, and (3) combination by Monte Carlo simulation of the estimated numbers of deposits with the historical grades and tonnages of these deposits to produce a probability distribution of the quantities of contained metal.Two examples of the estimation of the number of deposits (step 2) are given. The first example is for mercury deposits in southwestern Alaska and the second is for lode tin deposits in the Seward Peninsula.The flow of the Monte Carlo simulation program is presented with particular attention to the dependencies between grades and tonnages of deposits and between grades of different metals in the same deposit.     

A Review on Researches of Active Tectonics——History, Progress and Suggestions1

This paper reviews the history and progress of research on active tectonics in China and overseas. By giving a brief introduction on the history of active tectonic research in China and other countries, the paper sums up the process and development of quantitative investigation of active tectonics since the 1980s. The focus is on the main efforts and progress made in China on certain aspects of research, such as basic surveys and applied investigation of active tectonics, the study of theories related to regional active tectonics and their kinematics and geodynamics, surveys on coupling relations between deep and shallow structures, active fault surveys and prospecting and seismic hazard assessment in urban areas, as well as the efforts made using Quaternary geochronology. Furthermore, the paper looks back on Chinese quantitative investigation of active tectonics in China and sums up cognitions derived from studies on the determination of several basic and measurable parameters of active tectonics. These parameters include the length of fault and fault segmentation, coseismic slip and cumulative slip, fault slip rate, the sequence of paleoearthquake events and the time elapsed since the most recent event. At the same time, efforts and progress made in China on assessing the long-term seismic potential for active faults and evaluating the risk from potential active fault movement have been reviewed by summarizing research on developing theories, models, methods and the application of time-dependent seismic potential to prohabilistic assessment, magnitude estimation for potential earthquakes on active faults, and the forecast of potential risk caused by active fault movement. Finally, in consideration of the realities and problems in the research of active tectonics in China, the authors put forward several suggestions for issues worthy of more attention for further investigation in the future.     

Quantifying and predicting the accuracy of radar-based quantitative precipitation forecasts

On the basis that hydrological users need to know the forecast uncertainty at the time that the forecast is issued, we computed distributions of radar rainfall forecast uncertainty as a function of forecast lead time, basin size, and forecasted rainfall intensity using data from the US 3-D National Mosaic of radar data. We document how exceptional forecasts such as those of heavy rainfall are generally biased. Since forecast uncertainty is also weather dependent, we tried to find good predictors to help either reduce the forecast uncertainty or better define it. These predictors were based either on characteristics of the current precipitation field or on the performance of the nowcast in the immediate past. The value of some predictors, especially those based on the properties of large-scale rainfall patterns, was significant though modest, the predictors being generally more skillful at characterizing forecast uncertainty than at improving forecast accuracy.     

定性和定量长期预报模型的综合分析

根据相同的 50 0 h Pa和海温场预报因子 ,利用神经网络灵活可变的拓朴结构 ,分别构造了定性和定量的降水长期预报模型。并在同等条件下 ,建立了逐步回归预报方程。通过对比分析表明 ,这种定性和定量相结合的神经网络综合预报分析方法 ,是增强预报结果可靠性和稳定性的一种有效途径。该预报建模方法具有比较合理的分析依据 ,值得进一步探索、应用。     

贵州典型喀斯特县域生态环境脆弱度等级划分

以贵州省46个典型喀斯特县域作为研究对象,共选取5大类19项指标,通过层次分析法计算出各指标的相对权重,采用模糊综合评判方法对各县生态环境脆弱度进行计算和定量评价,并根据最大隶属原则把46个典型喀斯特县份分别划分于极度脆弱、强度脆弱、中度脆弱和轻度脆弱四种不同脆弱等级。计算结果表明,贵州喀斯特地区生态环境脆弱形势十分严重,在46个典型的喀斯特县份中,有31个县属于强度脆弱或极强脆弱,11个县属于中等脆弱,属于轻度脆弱的只有4个县。