Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Spatial distribution of block falls using volumetric GIS–decision-tree models

Block falls are considered a significant aspect of surficial instability contributing to losses in land and socio-economic aspects through their damaging effects to natural and human environments. This paper predicts and maps the geographic distribution and volumes of block falls in central Lebanon using remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS) and decision-tree modeling (un-pruned and pruned trees). Eleven terrain parameters (lithology, proximity to fault line, karst type, soil type, distance to drainage line, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, slope curvature, land cover/use, and proximity to roads) were generated to statistically explain the occurrence of block falls. The latter were discriminated using SPOT4 satellite imageries, and their dimensions were determined during field surveys. The un-pruned tree model based on all considered parameters explained 86% of the variability in field block fall measurements. Once pruned, it classifies 50% in block falls’ volumes by selecting just four parameters (lithology, slope gradient, soil type, and land cover/use). Both tree models (un-pruned and pruned) were converted to quantitative 1:50,000 block falls’ maps with different classes; starting from Nil (no block falls) to more than 4000 m³. These maps are fairly matching with coincidence value equal to 45%; however, both can be used to prioritize the choice of specific zones for further measurement and modeling, as well as for land-use management. The proposed tree models are relatively simple, and may also be applied to other areas (i.e. the choice of un-pruned or pruned model is related to the availability of terrain parameters in a given area).     

分子生物学技术在赤潮毒素分析监测中的应用

有毒赤潮事件的频繁爆发,不仅对海洋生物及自然资源造成了极大的危害,还严重威胁到公众健康。因此,各国都在积极寻求快速灵敏的检测方法,加强对赤潮毒素的分析及监测。现代分子生物学技术的发展为新型快速检测方法的建立提供了可能。对利用分子生物学技术对赤潮毒素进行检测的几种方法——全细胞PCR法、DNA探针法及信使基因细胞受体法进行了讨论。这些新技术旨在检测出环境中的痕量赤潮毒素和有害生物,杜绝赤潮毒素或有毒藻进入到食物链,从而最大限度保护公众健康、水环境及自然资源。     

马氏珠母贝(Pinctada fucata)组织蛋白酶L基因的克隆与表达分析

根据已构建的溶藻弧菌(Vibro alginolyticus)诱导的马氏珠母贝(Pinctada fucata)血淋巴cDNA差减文库得到的ESTs序列, 应用cDNA末端快速扩增(RACE)技术成功克隆了其组织蛋白酶L基因(PFCatL), 并对其进行了生物信息学分析; 应用实时荧光定量PCR (Real-time PCR)技术, 研究了PFCatL基因在溶藻弧菌刺激前后马氏珠母贝足、外套膜、鳃、闭壳肌等8个组织中的表达变化。结果表明, PFCatL基因cDNA全长2004bp, 其中5′非编码区(5′-UTR)50bp, 3′非编码区(3′-UTR)865bp, 开放阅读框(ORF)1089bp, 编码362个氨基酸, 其分子量计算值(MW)为40.52kDa, 理论等电点(IP)为5.20; 生物信息学分析表明, PFCatL含有16个氨基酸残基组成的信号肽序列以及组织蛋白酶前体抑制功能域I29; Clustalw2多重比对发现PFCatL氨基酸序列在催化三联体Cys-His-Asn、底物结合位点以及二硫键形成相关的半胱氨酸残基位点高度保守; Real-time PCR研究发现, PFCatL在马氏珠母贝各组织中均有表达, 但各组织间的表达量存在差异, 其中以肾和闭壳肌中的表达量最高; 溶藻弧菌感染4h后, 外套膜、鳃以及血淋巴中PFCatL基因的表达较感染前显著上调。     

裂缝性潜山油藏储集体岩性定量识别———以埕北30 太古界潜山储集体为例

由于油井取芯费用高昂加之油层保护的需要,不可能大量取芯,因此利用少量的岩芯资料,结合其它一些手段来预测未取芯井段的岩性,就成为有效识别和预测潜山储层分布的重要途径之一。该文针对埕北30 太古界潜山储集体,运用BP神经网络技术对测井资料进行了潜山储集体岩性的定量识别,经与岩芯观察、薄片分析、成像测井结果对比检验, 符合率达到了90%,从而为开展潜山油藏裂缝预测研究奠定了基础。      

Quantifying and predicting the accuracy of radar-based quantitative precipitation forecasts

On the basis that hydrological users need to know the forecast uncertainty at the time that the forecast is issued, we computed distributions of radar rainfall forecast uncertainty as a function of forecast lead time, basin size, and forecasted rainfall intensity using data from the US 3-D National Mosaic of radar data. We document how exceptional forecasts such as those of heavy rainfall are generally biased. Since forecast uncertainty is also weather dependent, we tried to find good predictors to help either reduce the forecast uncertainty or better define it. These predictors were based either on characteristics of the current precipitation field or on the performance of the nowcast in the immediate past. The value of some predictors, especially those based on the properties of large-scale rainfall patterns, was significant though modest, the predictors being generally more skillful at characterizing forecast uncertainty than at improving forecast accuracy.     

逆掩断层垂向封闭性定量模拟实验及评价方法

在正确分析逆掩断层形成的地质条件和封闭机理的基础上,本文认为与逆掩断层相伴生的塑性岩石的变形特征、断面压力和断裂带中泥质含量是影响断层垂向封闭性的主要因素。进行了断裂带填充物中泥质含量与断层封闭性定量关系物理模拟实验,并分析了岩石变形特征对断层封闭性的影响,建立了断层封闭性评价标准,提出了利用断裂带填充物质的性质、断面压力和膏泥岩变形特征评价断层封闭性方法。选择了库车坳陷克拉 3号构造进行了实例分析,结果表明该方法具有可靠性     

Clean development mechanism: leverage for development?

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to show that the investments through the clean development mechanism (CDM) can exert a leverage effect to (i) make attractive to developing countries non-binding commitments and the adoption of national policies and measures; this comes as a guarantee of non-conditionally of the mechanism to strictly environmental concerns and (ii) create a flow of additional investments and technological transfer from Annex B countries to non-Annex B countries.

The Indian power sector has been chosen as an example of a sector where institutional barriers, market imperfections, and tariff distortions create a great space for Pareto improvements and leave an important potential for no-regret measures: technological transfer, air conditioned systems, transport infrastructures and removal of subsidies on consumption.

This paper presents a micro-economic formalisation on (i) the evolution of profitability of current emitting technologies used in the power sector under the adoption of national policies and measures and (ii) the impact on renewable energy technologies competitiveness of emission credits in the context of CDM. This formalisation has been developed to enable quantitative simulation. A first exercise using the Markal model (used in 77 countries) on the electric sector in India enabled us to simulate the leverage effect of emission credits on additional incomes taken as a proxy for development.     

Seasonal Diatom Variability and Paleolimnological Inferences – A Case Study

The seasonality of physical, chemical, and biological water variables is a major characteristic of temperate, dimictic lakes. Yet, few investigations have considered the potential information that is encoded in seasonal dynamics with respect to the paleolimnological record. We used a one-year sequence of diatoms obtained from sediment traps and water samples, as well as the sedimentary diatom record covering the past ca. 1000 years in Bates Pond, Connecticut (USA), to investigate which variables influence the seasonal distribution of diatoms and how this can be used for the interpretation of the fossil record. The seasonal patterns in diatom assemblages were related to stratification and, to a lesser extent, to nitrate, silica, and phosphorus. During mixing periods in spring and autumn, both planktonic and benthic species were collected in the traps, while few lightly silicified, spindle-shaped planktonic diatoms dominated during thermal stratification in summer. Changes in fossil diatom assemblages reflected human activity in the watershed after European settlement and subsequent recovery in the 20th century. A long-term trend in diatom assemblage change initiated before European settlement was probably related to increased length of mixing periods during the Little Ice Age, indicated by the increase of taxa that presently grow during mixing periods and by application of a preliminary seasonal temperature model. We argue that the analysis of seasonal diatom dynamics in temperate lakes may provide important information for the refinement of paleolimnological interpretations. However, investigations of several lakes and years would be desirable in order to establish a more robust seasonal data set for the enhancement of paleolimnological interpretations.     

复杂地形下C波段雷达定量降水估计算法

C波段雷达定量降水估计(QPE)精度受到很多因素的影响,主要包括:(1)雷达标定,(2)非气象回波的干扰,(3)降水物垂直空间变化,(4)地形或地物的严重遮挡,(5)Z-R关系的代表性,(6)雷达拼图的质量,(7)雷达观测回波衰减等.文中雷达定量降水估计算法基于陕西省C波段天气雷达展开,从雷达探测数据质量控制、地形遮挡...