Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

埋藏岩溶洞穴垮塌深度定量图版及其在碳酸盐岩缝洞型储层地质评价预测中的意义

通过对岩溶洞穴垮塌的岩石力学原理及塔里木盆地奥陶系实钻资料的分析,基本明确了洞穴埋藏垮塌的控制因素是岩石抗弯强度、洞穴尺度、洞穴距风化暴露面的距离等,并得到了洞穴垮塌深度的定量图版。该图版对于钻前预测现今埋藏于地下的碳酸盐岩洞穴是否已经垮塌、洞穴埋藏演化史精确恢复以及对裂缝—洞穴型储层的评价预测具有较强的实践意义。     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Measuring quality conventions in the food industry: Applications to the wine sector in Spain

The “quality turn” that the agri-food system has recently taken considers quality to be a complex notion that is defined both by the physical characteristics of the product and by changing socio-cultural factors. Convention theory provides a framework for assessing quality by means of various criteria, which correspond to different convention categories. Research that is based on this theory employs qualitative methods and case studies. In this article, a quantitative research methodology that addresses the conventions of the agri-food industry was carried out. Specifically, 19 mathematical indicators were constructed from statistical sources to identify and measure existing quality conventions in the wine subsector. These indicators have been tested in a study of 16 Protected Designations of Origin (PDOs) inland Spain, with the following results: first, existing convention categories for each PDO were identified – industrial, commercial, domestic, public and civic – and a distinctive quality profile was developed for each one. Second, a ranking of PDOs was established according to their orientation to each convention type. The viability and utility of the quantitative methods in this quality convention study was demonstrated, thereby opening a research path that is complementary to qualitative methods.     

工程地质评价定量表格化的一种实现方法

本文对传统的工程地质评价方法作了扩展,称之为工程地质评价的定量表格化。本文详细给出了定量表格化的一种实现方法。两个应用实例表明,该方法既定量又简便,具有良好的适用性和推广前景。     

小尺度断层定量预测及对注水开发的影响——以渤中34油田为例

大尺度断层往往控制了沉积盆地的形成和油气成藏,而小尺度断层则影响着注水开发效果和剩余油分布.大尺度断层可以通过二维或三维地震资料识别,而小尺度断层的识别则特别困难.本文提出了一种基于断层分形生长模式和三维地质力学模拟相结合来确定小尺度断层的数量、发育位置和方位的方法,并根据油田开发动态资料来确定小尺度断层对注水开发和剩余油分布的影响.将地震上识别的大尺度断层引入到三维数值力学模型中,模拟大尺度断层形成时期断裂带附近的应力扰动作用,然后结合破裂准则来建立最易发生破裂的方位和最大库伦剪切应力网格,以这两套网格和断层尺度的幂律分布确定的小尺度断层数量为约束条件来确定随机模型,对小尺度断层的密度、产状和发育位置进行定量预测.研究表明:利用分形理论和三维地质力学模拟可以对大尺度断层伴生小尺度断层进行有效预测;小尺度断层对注水开发效果和剩余油分布的影响取决于小尺度断层的规模(断距)以及小尺度断层方位和注采方向的关系.     

基于最优分割分级法的月球撞击坑分级及其演化分析

撞击坑是月球表面广泛分布的重要构造形态,占据了月球表面的大部分面积。撞击坑的直径差别很大,从几微米到数百千米,其退化程度与形成年代具有密切关系。为了研究不同地质年代形成的撞击坑直径大小及其演化规律,需采用量化分级方法对大小不同的撞击坑进行定量分级和统计分析。本文在月表撞击坑数据库LU60645GT和Lunar_Impact_Crater_Database(2011)的基础上,结合数据库中撞击坑的直径、深度和年代信息,利用最优分割分级法对撞击坑直径进行定量化分级,并根据分级结果,综合分析撞击坑几何形态特征及其演化规律。研究结果表明,撞击坑形态特征的演化与年代有密切的关系。在相同级别、相同地体下,撞击坑形成的年代越早,其形态特征的精细结构退化程度越明显,只保留了大体的几何形状;而在不同级别、相同地体、相同年代下的撞击坑形态特征则由简单逐渐变为复杂,坑物质也逐渐变得复杂。     

Quantification of mineral matter in the Argonne Premium Coals using interactive Rietveld-based X-ray diffraction

The mineral matter in the eight reference North American coal samples of the Argonne Premium Coal series has been investigated on a quantitative basis using X-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques. X-ray diffraction data obtained from electronic low-temperature (oxygen–plasma) ash (LTA) residues, from ashes produced by heating the coals in air at 370°C, and also from the raw coals themselves, were evaluated using an interactive data processing system ( ™) based on Rietveld interpretation methods. The results from the three types of material (LTA, 370°C ash and raw coal) were compared for each sample. This allowed the components present in the raw coals in crystalline form to be recognised separately from mineral artifacts produced, particularly in the low-rank coals, from interaction of organically associated elements (Ca, S, etc.) during the two ashing processes.After the allowance for the production of any artifacts, the quantitative mineral assemblages identified from XRD of the raw coals were found to be consistent, even for coals having a relatively low ash percentage (around 5%), with the results obtained from the respective mineral concentrates prepared by the ashing methods. The effects of heating the coal to 370°C could also be distinguished, relative to the raw coal or the LTA, through changes in components such as pyrite and the clay minerals.Although some areas of uncertainty exist, particularly with magnesium in the low-rank coals, the calculated chemical compositions of the coal ash derived from the mineral mixtures identified for each coal were also found to be consistent with the results of direct chemical analysis of the respective coal ash materials.     

贵州典型喀斯特县域生态环境脆弱度等级划分

以贵州省46个典型喀斯特县域作为研究对象,共选取5大类19项指标,通过层次分析法计算出各指标的相对权重,采用模糊综合评判方法对各县生态环境脆弱度进行计算和定量评价,并根据最大隶属原则把46个典型喀斯特县份分别划分于极度脆弱、强度脆弱、中度脆弱和轻度脆弱四种不同脆弱等级。计算结果表明,贵州喀斯特地区生态环境脆弱形势十分严重,在46个典型的喀斯特县份中,有31个县属于强度脆弱或极强脆弱,11个县属于中等脆弱,属于轻度脆弱的只有4个县。      

1991 年江淮暴雨的定量预报检验

利用Threat Score方法，对1991年6月12—15日，6月29日—7月12日江淮持续暴雨的定量预报进行了检验。结果表明，对于大雨和暴雨预报，目前主观预报优于客观预报。数值预报在降雨定量预报的某些方面有了一定突破。