Basic concepts in three-part quantitative assessments of undiscovered mineral resources

Since 1975, mineral resource assessments have been made for over 27 areas covering 5×10⁶ km² at various scales using what is now called the three-part form of quantitative assessment. In these assessments, (1) areas are delineated according to the types of deposits permitted by the geology,(2) the amount of metal and some ore characteristics are estimated using grade and tonnage models, and (3) the number of undiscovered deposits of each type is estimated.Permissive boundaries are drawn for one or more deposit types such that the probability of a deposit lying outside the boundary is negligible, that is, less than 1 in 100,000 to 1,000,000.     

地震烈度物理标准研究

基于对地震烈度及其物理标准新的认识，本文采用更丰富的强震观测资料和新的理论分析方法对地震烈度物理标准进行了广泛的研究，提出了新的地震烈度物理标准，并对其应用进行了讨论。     

Quantitative precipitation forecasting over Narmada Catchment

Quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) has been attempted over the Narmada Catchment following a statistical approach. The catchment has been divided into five sub-regions for the development of QPF models with a maximum lead-time of 24 hours. For this purpose the data of daily rainfall from 56 raingauge stations, twice daily observations on different surface meteorological parameters from 28 meteorological observatories and upper air data from 11 aerological stations for the nine monsoon seasons of 1972–1980 have been utilized. The horizontal divergence, relative vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture divergence are computed using the kinematic method at different pressure levels and used as independent variables along with the rainfall and surface meteorological parameters. Multiple linear regression equations have been developed using the stepwise procedure separately with actual and square root and log-transformed rainfall using 8-year data (1972–1979). When these equations were verified with an independent data for the monsoon season of 1980, it was found that the transformed rainfall equations fared much better compared to the actual rainfall equations. The performance of the forecasts of QPF model compared to the climatological and persistence forecasts has been assessed by computing the verification scores using the forecasts for the monsoon season of 1980.     

关门山铅锌矿床多源信息图像处理及综合成矿预测

研究区位于关门山铅锌矿床及外围约2000km~2范围内,依据综合信息成矿预测的基本理论,采用图像处理方法,进行遥感信息及地球物理信息对地质构造识别的增强处理.通过地质多源信息的综合研究,分析区域成矿规律,建立综合找矿模型,运用统计预测方法进行靶区优选.     

相关分析在电测深资料解释中的初步应用

本文介绍了在电测深资料定量解释中,根据参数变量的联系程度,以测深曲线倾角(α)与界面深度(H)为主要变量参数,进行相关分析,建立回归方程,用于定量解释。目的层埋深在一定范围内的ρ测深曲线(如KH,KHK,KHKH),推断解释界面深度比较接近实际,经几个孔点的检验,相对误差在.19％—8.93％以内变化.从而提高了解释精度。     

珠江口盆地东部定量生物地层划分对比及沉降历史分析

用定量生物地层学的方法(RASC 和 CASC)对珠江口盆地东部34口井的古生物资料进行统计分析,建立了最佳生物地层序列。根据化石事件间的 RASC 距离,将这个最佳序列划出10个化石组合带,用 CASC 方法建立了区域地质年表,展示了地质年代、地层和RASC 分带之间的关系,并完成了井间对比。最后,根据 CASC 所提供的钻井时-深曲线,对10口井进行了沉降史分析,揭示了该区中新世以来构造沉降的时空特征。     

中国省级人口分布影响因素的定量分析*

本文主要用1987年的数据,对影响省级人口密度的31种因素指标进口了相关和回归分析,建立了各种因素对人口密度的回归公式。作者引进了两个新的经济指标:单位国土面积粮食产量和国民收入。分析表明这两个指标比其他经济指标与人口密度的相关更紧密,自然因素尤其是海拔影响最大,其次是经济因素。     

The use of scale recursive estimation for short term quantitative precipitation forecast

Scale recursive estimation (SRE) is adopted for short term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The precipitation field is modelled using a lognormal random cascade, well suited to properly represent the scaling properties of rainfall fields. To estimate the random cascade parameters, scale recursive maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is carried out by the iterative expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. To illustrate the potentiality of the SRE, forecast of a synthetically generated rainfall time series is shown. Adaptive estimation of the process parameters is carried out and precipitation forecasts are issued. The forecasts from the SRE are compared with those from standard ARMA models, showing a good performance. The SRE is then adopted for forecasting of an observed half hourly precipitation series for a two day storm event in northern Italy. The SRE provides good performance and it can therefore be adopted as a tool for short term QPF.     

非传统矿产资源定量预测的理论思考

近年来,国内外对新型非传统矿产资源研究都予以高度重视,解决矿产资源短缺的这一就是非传统勘查理论与方法研究。“相似类比”一直是地质研究所遵循的基本原理,但对于具有“点型分布”的矿床,以及对于研究区不存在已知矿床没有现成模式进行“相似类比”,什么样的理论可以用来指导我们的找矿预测呢？多样性是复杂系统中客观事物外在表现的基本特征,成矿专属性只是成矿多样性的一种特例或表现形式之一。因此,非传统矿产资源预测评价的新理论必须在理论基础上既适用于寻找传统矿床类型,又不忽视对新类型矿产资源的发现,预测和评价。对于区域成矿预测的分析研究,成矿地质信息的数字化,定量化是地质异常识别与提取的重要基础,矿化特征的数字化,定量化是成矿多样性分析与评价的关键步骤,区域成矿规律的数字化,定量化是矿床谱系分析的理论核心。     

广东全省性年气候变化的定量分析

利用广东的年气候要素资料,采用经验正交函数分解,周期回归等方法,并计算相关系数,持续性比等,统计分析了广东全省性气候变化的时空特征,年际持续特点及其与热带海气变化的关系。