Using the TCEV distribution function with systematic and non-systematic data in a regional flood frequency analysis

Due to the social and economic implications, flood frequency analysis must be done with the highest precision. For this reason, the most suitable statistical model must be selected, and the maximum amount of information must be used. Floods in Mediterranean rivers can be produced by two different mechanisms, which forces the use of a non-traditional distribution like the TCEV. The information can be increased by using additional non-systematic data, or with a regional analysis, or both. Through the statistical gain concept, it has been shown that in most cases the use of additional non-systematic information can decrease the quantile estimation error in about 50%. In a regional analysis, the␣benefit of additional information in one station, is propagated to the rest of␣the␣stations with only a small decrease with respect to the at-site equivalent analysis.     

DL脑电地形图仪系统研制

阐述了脑电生理信号检测中,注重低噪声电路设计的同时,特别注重放大器的工艺设计,及应用微机对脑电信号功率谱分析、插值、脑电地形图绘制等系统研制的技术路线和方法。     

网点扩展与Murray—Davies公式两种修正形式

本文重新讨论了Ｍｕｒｒａｙ—Ｄａｖｉｅｓ公式和Ｙｕｌｅ—Ｎｅｉｌｓｏｎ公式的物理含义，讨论了修正系数ｎ与网点扩展之间的关系，用叠代法计算了修正系数。提出一种对Ｍｕｒｒａｙ—Ｄａｖｉｅｓ公式新的修正方法，并对两种修正方法作了比较。     

Long-term gain changes in mercury-level tiltmeters of the Stacey type

A uniaxial mercury-level short baselength tilt transducer constructed at the University of Alberta is described. The design closely follows the differential capacitance tiltmeter ofStacey et al. (1969), but differs in that aluminum is used for the beam, and how the mercury cups are supported beneath the beam. It also allows gain verification by comparison of the direct capacitances with a known capacitance. It has been found that the gain factor for the instrument changes with time, because of the relaxation of the mercury surfaces. This has been monitored for several years for four instruments at two sites. The gains change rapidly for several months after installation, but more slowly as time progresses. The magnitudes of such changes in instruments of this type may be as large as 3 percent.     

地图设计与生产彩色管理系统的研究

本文以色度学理论为指导,根据地图设计与生产的实际需要,建构了一个用于地图颜色设计与分色的彩色管理系统。该系统通过数学模型完成对所含的七种颜色空间的相互交换,其中ＹＭＣＫ空间和ＨＶＣ空间直接与输入输出设备（介质）的颜色特征相关。在这一研究中,作者提出了一种不区分网点扩大性质的数学模型,改进了ＣＩＥＸＹＺ与ＭＲＧＢ空间的变换方法。     

郯庐断裂带南段双山韧—脆性剪切带物质迁移与CO2释放研究

根据动力变质作用的特点，在野外和室内正确鉴别区分郯庐断裂安徽肥东双山一带不同变质等级的动力变质带的矿物组合特点，应用体积亏损-元素得失方程，计算了在应力作用条件下，不同变质带内，不同等级的碳酸盐岩地层的各元素（组分）的得失状况，特别仔细地深入地模拟计算了不同岩性的动力变质岩的构造应力作用下的CO2的释放量和释放机制，从而为探讨和研究动力变质作用下，碳酸盐岩地区岩石生成CO2的过程提供理论和实践上的依据。     

强震时-空综合概率增益模型与中长期预测方法效能研究

本文在介绍强震时-空概率增益综合预测模型与单项地震预测方法效能评价指标的基础上，给出了各种中长期预测方法的概率增益统计值和预测效能R值。并对结果进行了讨论。     

Prediction of sediment yield by coupling Kalman filter with instantaneous unit sediment graph

An instantaneous unit sediment graph (IUSG) model in conjunction with Kalman filter was investigated for prediction of sediment yield from an upland watershed in Northwestern Mississippi. The state vector of the watershed sediment yield system was constituted by the IUSG and then the sediment yield was estimated by the IUSG model using Kalman filter. The initial values of the state vector were assumed as the average of the IUSG values and the initial sediment yield estimated from the average IUSG. The IUSG model using Kalman filter with a recursive algorithm accurately predicted sediment yield from watershed W‐5, Mississippi. The filter allowed the IUSG to vary in time, increased the accuracy of the IUSG model, and reduced physical uncertainty of the sediment yield process in the watershed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

印度尼西亚巨震对华东地震形势的影响

根据印度板块和缅甸次板块运动GPS观测资料, 分析了印度尼西亚巨震的发震构造背景, 震后印、 缅板块的正应力减小, 剪应力相对增大, 剪应力是对华东地震形势产生影响的主要动力源。 简单统计印缅板块地震后3年内华东地区发生中强震的对应组数为21组, 利用概率增益公式得出印、 缅板块地震和华东地区中强震的对应关系是有物理基础的对应, 而不是随机的对应。 通过β分布函数预测华东地区未来3年发生5级以上地震的概率为0.67, 风险经验概率为0.65。     

A Review on the Research Progress in Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) in the World

In this paper, the research progress of the Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) is introduced from the major areas of concern, the concept of probability gain, hybrid model development,and the application to earthquake disaster reduction.Due to the development of OEF based on the global "Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)" plan, it provides a significant technical foundation for earthquake forecast modeling and a practical foundation for solving the actual problems in earthquake preparedness and disaster mitigation.Therefore, related research and technical ideas provide inspirational and referential significance for earthquake forecasting/prediction.