Colonization processes in semi-arid Mediterranean old-fields

Semi-arid Mediterranean ecosystems undergo a slow process of secondary succession after disturbance which is dependent on rainfall. We tested the hypothesis that colonization of abandoned lands in semi-arid SE Spain was slowed down by seed dispersal and species-specific responses to climatic variability. In field and glasshouse experiments we analysed germination of the two main colonizer species, their appearance in the field as seedlings, their relationships with climate and the resulting population structure. Seed germination of the two dominant legume species, Anthyllis cytisoides and Retama sphaerocarpa, was enhanced by scarification, but triggered in the field by temperature and rainfall, respectively. There was no evidence of allelopathic effects affecting germination in the field. Population structure reflected high inter-annual variability in shrub establishment, which was related to rainfall in spite of self-thinning and other processes that modeled current shrub numbers. Colonization of abandoned lands in semi-arid, Mediterranean environments in SE Spain seems to be primarily limited by seed dispersal, but also affected by climatic variability, which produced temporally separated recruitment events.     

基于高分辨率遥感图像的人口估算研究

随着遥感和地理信息系统技术的迅速发展，遥感和地理信息系统已成为进行人口估算的重要手段，本文以高分辨率遥感影像为主要信息源，应用地理信息系统软件Arcview3．2，采用居住单元估算法和土地利用密度法两种方法分别对银川市金凤区主城区进行人口估算。结果表明采用这两种方法估算出的结果差异不大，居住单元估算法更适合于估算农村及城市周边小区域的人口，而土地利用密度法则适合于对一些中小城市进行人口估算。     

高精度静态人口空间分布研究——以银川市西夏区为例

地震发生后，人口空间分布密度是决定救援力量部署的重要依据。然而，高精度人口空间分布数据存在获取和更新困难的问题，缺少有效的解决途径。以银川市西夏区为例，基于高空间分辨率遥感影像，通过建筑物解译与实地调查相结合的方式获取住宅建筑物信息，建立人口与住宅建筑物之间的关系模型，得到更客观真实的人口空间分布情况。研究结果表明，以高空间分辨率遥感影像解译住宅建筑物作为人口空间分布指示因子建模，得到的总体预测人口误差率为3.56%，人口平均相对误差率为9.19%，研究结果具有较高的可靠性，为震前灾害风险评估和震后灾情快速评估提供可靠的人口空间分布数据。     

“一带一路”沿线国家2020—2060年人口经济发展情景预测

本文应用IPCC共享社会经济路径(SSPs),开展“一带一路”沿线国家的人口和经济情景预测,研究可持续路径(SSP1)、中间路径(SSP2)、区域竞争路径(SSP3)、不均衡路径(SSP4)和化石燃料为主发展路径(SSP5)下,“一带一路”沿线国家社会经济的变化趋势,构建“一带一路”沿线国家人口和经济发展情景数据库,服务于气候变化影响、风险、适应和减缓路径方案设计。研究表明：(1)2016年“一带一路”沿线国家总人口占全球人口的62.3%,GDP总量占全球的31.2%。其中“21世纪海上丝绸之路”经过的东南亚和南亚地区经济总量大,但人口密集,人均GDP较低;“丝绸之路经济带”涵盖的中亚、西亚、东欧等地区人口密度小,经济相对发达。(2)“一带一路”沿线国家未来人口和经济整体呈增长趋势,但不同的社会经济发展政策对人口经济变化有重大影响。不同的SSPs路径下,2060年人口将比2016年水平增加3.3亿(SSP5)~18.3亿(SSP3),经济总量达到2016年水平的3.0（SSP3)~6.4倍(SSP5)。人口占全球总量的比重持续减少,经济比重则有所增加。(3)21世纪中期(2051—2060年),“一带一路”沿线国家平均人口密度约95人/km²,GDP约164万美元/km²。不同社会经济发展政策间人口经济分布有一定差异,SSP3路径下大部分国家人口增长迅速,但经济发展缓慢,人均GDP多低于2万美元;SSP5路径下人口相对较少,经济发展迅速,大多数国家人均GDP超过2.5万美元;其他3种路径下人口经济发展介于SSP3和SSP5之间。     

High resolution study of the abundance pattern of the heavy elements in very metal‐poor field stars

The abundances of heavy elements in EMP stars are not well explained by the simple view of an initial basic “rapid” process. In a careful and homogeneous analysis of the “First Stars” sample (eighty per cent of the stars have a metallicity [Fe/H] ≃ –3.1 ± 0.4), it has been shown that at this metallicity [Eu/Ba] is constant, and therefore the europium‐rich stars (generally called “r‐rich”) are also Ba‐rich. The very large variation of [Ba/Fe] (existence of “r‐poor” and “r‐rich” stars) induces that the early matter was not perfectly mixed. On the other hand, the distribution of the values of [Sr/Ba] vs. [Ba/Fe] appears with well defined upper and lower envelopes. No star was found with [Sr/Ba] < –0.5 and the scatter of [Sr/Ba] increases regularly when [Ba/Fe] decreases. To explain this behavior, we suggest that an early “additional” process forming mainly first peak elements would affect the initial composition of the matter. For a same quantity of accreted matter, this additional Sr production would barely affect the r‐rich matter (which already contains an important quantity of Sr) but would change significantly the composition of the r‐poor matter. The abundances found in the CEMP‐r+s stars reflect the transfer of heavy elements from a defunct AGB companion. But the abundances of the heavy elements in CEMP‐no stars present the same characteristics as the the abundances in the EMP stars. Direct stellar ages may be found from radioactive elements, the precision is limited by the precision in the measurements of abundances from faint lines in faint stars, and the uncertainty in the initial abundances of the radioactive elements. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Relative sea-level rise and the conterminous United States: Consequences of potential land inundation in terms of population at risk and GDP loss

Global sea-level rise poses a significant threat not only for coastal communities as development continues but also for national economies. This paper presents estimates of how future changes in relative sea-level rise puts coastal populations at risk, as well as affect overall GDP in the conterminous United States. We use four different sea-level rise scenarios for 2010–2100: a low-end scenario (Extended Linear Trend) a second low-end scenario based on a strong mitigative global warming pathway (Global Warming Coupling 2.6), a high-end scenario based on rising radiative forcing (Global Warming Coupling 8.5) and a plausible very high-end scenario, including accelerated ice cap melting (Global Warming Coupling 8.5+). Relative sea-level rise trends for each US state are employed to obtain more reasonable rates for these areas, as long-term rates vary considerably between the US Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific coasts because of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, local subsidence and sediment compaction, and other vertical land movement. Using these trends for the four scenarios reveals that the relative sea levels predicted by century's end could range – averaged over all states – from 0.2 to 2.0 m above present levels. The estimates for the amount of land inundated vary from 26,000 to 76,000 km². Upwards of 1.8 to 7.4 million people could be at risk, and GDP could potentially decline by USD 70–289 billion. Unfortunately, there are many uncertainties associated with the impact estimates due to the limitations of the input data, especially the input elevation data. Taking this into account, even the most conservative scenario shows a significant impact for the US, emphasizing the importance of adaptation and mitigation.     

The bay scallop (Argopecten irradians) industry collapse in Virginia and its implications for the successful management of scallop-seagrass habitats

Virginia supported the most productive bay scallop (Argopecten irradians) fishery in the United States in 1930, but the fishery disappeared three years later and never recovered. This collapse highlights a tipping point, but managers of extant bay scallop fisheries have not looked to this case for guidance, because the collapse has long been attributed to an exogenous eelgrass (Zostera marina) ‘wasting disease’ pandemic. Consequently, it remains little understood. However, efforts to restore the fishery, following successful eelgrass restoration, now warrant a thorough examination of its economic significance and disappearance. This study comprehensively surveyed information on the original fishery and reconstructed the pre-collapse population to evaluate restoration prospects and management strategies that reduce the risk of future scallop-seagrass system collapses. Harvest records suggest that overharvesting possibly contributed to the Virginia fishery disappearance—a factor that influenced other bay scallop fisheries but did not alarm contemporary managers in Virginia. The harvest peaked before managers observed eelgrass disappearing and exceeded most pre-collapse population estimates. Intensive dredging possibly precipitated a feedback that reduced scallop recruitment by lowering seagrass shoot densities. Managers should, therefore, consider a potential tradeoff between future scallop harvest and eelgrass restoration goals. The restored wild scallop population in Virginia cannot yet support a commercial fishery at historic levels, which removed between 270 and 380x as many individuals. However, the economic risks associated with reestablishing this fishery are low. The collapse did not cause a significant loss in total economic value, because harvesters rapidly shifted focus to clams, supplanting lost scallop revenue.     

气候变化对我国历史时期人口迁移的影响

我国历史时期曾发生过多次大规模的人口迁移。影响其迁移发生的因素是复杂的、多方面的,而气候变化的作用过去一直被大多数研究者所忽视。本文的讨论表明历史上的一些人口迁移时期,尤其是中亚和蒙古高原游牧民族大规模南下时期,往往也是我国北方气候偏干,旱灾、尘暴和冬季雷暴出现频繁,湖泊退缩,土地沙漠化强烈和黄河决溢频率减小的时期。湖泊面积变化的能量平衡计算表明,干旱、半干旱地区这时的降水量较先前的湿润期减少了35～40％以上。这种强烈的变化导致了畜牧业的严重减产,使其产量不能维持湿润期已增长起来的人口的需求而发生了人口的向外流动,并多次导致了全国性人口大迁移。与此同时,气候变化和气候灾害也直接影响了汉族内部的人口迁移。     

人口扩散与空间相互作用的联系

本文以人口为基本形象,发现了空间相互作用与地理扩散的关系,导出了最大熵原理分析未得出的一些新的结论。