A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) – Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical–biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye (Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization [Senina, I., Sibert, J., Lehodey, P., 2008. Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: application to skipjack tuna. Progress in Oceanography]. Once this evaluation and parameterization is complete, it may be possible to use the model for management of tuna stocks in the context of climate and ecosystem variability, and to investigate potential changes due to anthropogenic activities including global warming and fisheries pressures and management scenarios.     

Population growth and sustainability of common property resource management systems in the eastern Hindu Kush: The use of communal fodder resources in Mehlp Valley, North Pakistan

In common property studies, increasing number of users has been considered as a major threat for the long-term sustainability of natural resources. This perception has been true in a few cases. However, the 40-years empirical research conducted in a variety of environmental settings, reveals that population pressure is not the only factor responsible for the degradation of natural resources. In remote areas, where the local inhabitants highly depend on available natural resources for subsistence livelihood, the economically important resources are kept under different ownership regimes. The local inhabitants have established autochthonous institutions, and formulated rules and regulations for proper management of these resources. In this paper an attempt has been made to explore the response of a small fodder user community to the increasing population. For this purpose a micro-level study has been conducted in a remote mountain environment in the eastern Hindu Kush. For this research, data has been collected through fieldwork and focus group discussion. The results of this study reveal that fodder user communities have responded very well to the problem of population pressure. To maintain equity and long-term sustainability they have adopted a number of strategies including changing the ownership, and a resource kept under private ownership at the time of low population has been changed to a common property with increase in population. Based on this study it can be concluded that in mountainous areas and fragile environment the local inhabitant have both the capacity and capability to change their behaviour with regard to changing resource productivity as well as increasing number of users, and this situation does not always lead to the tragedy of commons.     

中国人口分布的合理性研究

本文在人口分布合理性判定标准和指标讨论的基础上,通过对自然环境与人口分布相互关系的定性研究,和综合反映自然条件、经济水平的土地食物生产力与人口分布的定量分析,论证了我国东密西疏人口不均衡分布的内在合理性。     

基于移动通信大数据的地震灾区人口快速处理系统研究

破坏性地震发生后,及时准确掌握被困人数和具体位置是救援的关键。传统地震应急基础数据库的人口数据是某个时期以行政单元或者公里格网为基础的统计数据,缺乏时效性和空间分布特征,难以据此准确评估地震灾区被困人员的分布情况。该研究根据移动通信定位技术中的被动Cell-ID定位法原理,获取研究区手机定位数据,系统以Microsoft Visual Studio 2012为开发平台,运用C#语言和ArcEngine开发组件来构建,对获取的手机定位数据进行处理,评估灾区被困人口的分布情况,制作专题图,为震后的应急救援提供参考依据。     

Kinematics of SDSS subdwarfs: structure and substructure of the Milky Way halo

We construct a new sample of ∼1700 solar neighbourhood halo subdwarfs from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), selected using a reduced proper-motion diagram. Radial velocities come from the SDSS spectra and proper motions from the light-motion curve catalogue of Bramich et al. Using a photometric parallax relation to estimate distances gives us the full phase-space coordinates. Typical velocity errors are in the range  30–50 km s⁻¹  . This halo sample is one of the largest constructed to date and the disc contamination is at a level of ≲1 per cent. This enables us to calculate the halo velocity dispersion to excellent accuracy. We find that the velocity dispersion tensor is aligned in spherical polar coordinates and that  (σ _r , σ_φ, σ_θ) = (143 ± 2, 82 ± 2, 77 ± 2) km s⁻¹  . The stellar halo exhibits no net rotation, although the distribution of   v _φ  shows tentative evidence for asymmetry. The kinematics are consistent with a mildly flattened stellar density falling with distance like   r ^−3.75  .
Using the full phase-space coordinates, we look for signs of kinematic substructure in the stellar halo. We find evidence for four discrete overdensities localized in angular momentum and suggest that they may be possible accretion remnants. The most prominent is the solar neighbourhood stream previously identified by Helmi et al., but the remaining three are new. One of these overdensities is potentially associated with a group of four globular clusters (NGC 5466, NGC 6934, M2 and M13) and raises the possibility that these could have been accreted as part of a much larger progenitor.     

Relative sea-level rise and the conterminous United States: Consequences of potential land inundation in terms of population at risk and GDP loss

Global sea-level rise poses a significant threat not only for coastal communities as development continues but also for national economies. This paper presents estimates of how future changes in relative sea-level rise puts coastal populations at risk, as well as affect overall GDP in the conterminous United States. We use four different sea-level rise scenarios for 2010–2100: a low-end scenario (Extended Linear Trend) a second low-end scenario based on a strong mitigative global warming pathway (Global Warming Coupling 2.6), a high-end scenario based on rising radiative forcing (Global Warming Coupling 8.5) and a plausible very high-end scenario, including accelerated ice cap melting (Global Warming Coupling 8.5+). Relative sea-level rise trends for each US state are employed to obtain more reasonable rates for these areas, as long-term rates vary considerably between the US Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific coasts because of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, local subsidence and sediment compaction, and other vertical land movement. Using these trends for the four scenarios reveals that the relative sea levels predicted by century's end could range – averaged over all states – from 0.2 to 2.0 m above present levels. The estimates for the amount of land inundated vary from 26,000 to 76,000 km². Upwards of 1.8 to 7.4 million people could be at risk, and GDP could potentially decline by USD 70–289 billion. Unfortunately, there are many uncertainties associated with the impact estimates due to the limitations of the input data, especially the input elevation data. Taking this into account, even the most conservative scenario shows a significant impact for the US, emphasizing the importance of adaptation and mitigation.     

Fine-scale population structure in a deep-sea teleost (orange roughy, Hoplostethus atlanticus)

Microsatellite and otolith chemistry variability were analysed to assess fine scale genetic structure in the deep-sea teleost orange roughy (Hoplostethus atlanticus). The Porcupine Bank located on the continental shelf west of Ireland, comprises a complex system of mounds and flat areas that are broken up by canyons. Orange roughy form spawning aggregations on mounds and flat areas, and were heavily fished until the resource was depleted. By analysing adults in spawning condition and juvenile orange roughy from six mounds and one flat area, shallow but significant genetic population structure was evident (F_ST=0.0031, D_est across loci=0.0306 and G-test). Most of the structure was accounted for by inclusion of a sample from the flats (six of ten significant pairwise F_ST estimates and G-tests, and five of the highest D_est estimates included the flat sample). While the flat sample contributed most to the genetic structure, there was still significant (albeit weaker) structure among mound samples. The observed structure was supported by otolith analyses. Fish caught as late juveniles in either the flat or mound areas showed consistent differences in chemistry at the otolith core throughout the initial 10 years of growth, which could indicate site fidelity. We hypothesise that seafloor topographic structures (mounds and flats) may provide discrete spawning areas for orange roughy and that the limited gene flow between these spawning areas is insufficient to counteract genetic drift.     

人口地理学的研究进展

本文系统回顾了国外及我国人口地理学的发展过程和研究现状与趋势，并指出了我国的人口地理学研究与西方发达国家之间存在的主要差距，以及我国人口地理学今后发展的主要方向。     

“一带一路”沿线国家2020—2060年人口经济发展情景预测

本文应用IPCC共享社会经济路径(SSPs),开展“一带一路”沿线国家的人口和经济情景预测,研究可持续路径(SSP1)、中间路径(SSP2)、区域竞争路径(SSP3)、不均衡路径(SSP4)和化石燃料为主发展路径(SSP5)下,“一带一路”沿线国家社会经济的变化趋势,构建“一带一路”沿线国家人口和经济发展情景数据库,服务于气候变化影响、风险、适应和减缓路径方案设计。研究表明：(1)2016年“一带一路”沿线国家总人口占全球人口的62.3%,GDP总量占全球的31.2%。其中“21世纪海上丝绸之路”经过的东南亚和南亚地区经济总量大,但人口密集,人均GDP较低;“丝绸之路经济带”涵盖的中亚、西亚、东欧等地区人口密度小,经济相对发达。(2)“一带一路”沿线国家未来人口和经济整体呈增长趋势,但不同的社会经济发展政策对人口经济变化有重大影响。不同的SSPs路径下,2060年人口将比2016年水平增加3.3亿(SSP5)~18.3亿(SSP3),经济总量达到2016年水平的3.0（SSP3)~6.4倍(SSP5)。人口占全球总量的比重持续减少,经济比重则有所增加。(3)21世纪中期(2051—2060年),“一带一路”沿线国家平均人口密度约95人/km²,GDP约164万美元/km²。不同社会经济发展政策间人口经济分布有一定差异,SSP3路径下大部分国家人口增长迅速,但经济发展缓慢,人均GDP多低于2万美元;SSP5路径下人口相对较少,经济发展迅速,大多数国家人均GDP超过2.5万美元;其他3种路径下人口经济发展介于SSP3和SSP5之间。     

Impacts of Migration on Urban Environmental Pollutant Emissions in China: A Comparative Perspective

In recent years,researchers have devoted considerable attention to identifying the causes of urban environmental pollution.To determine whether migrant populations significantly affect urban environments,we examined the relationship between urban environmental pollutant emissions and migrant populations at the prefectural level using data obtained for 90 Chinese cities evidencing net in-migration.By dividing the permanent populations of these cities into natives and migrants in relation to the population structure,we constructed an improved Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology model(STIRPAT)that included not only environmental pollutant emission variables but also variables on the cities’attributes.We subsequently conducted detailed analyses of the results of the models to assess the impacts of natives and migrants on environmental pollutant emissions.The main findings of our study were as follows:1)Migrant populations have significant impacts on environmental emissions both in terms of their size and concentration.Specifically,migrant populations have negative impacts on Air Quality Index(AQI)as well as PM2.5 emissions and positive impacts on emissions of NO2 and CO2.2)The impacts of migrant populations on urban environmental pollutant emissions were 8 to 30 times weaker than that of local populations.3)Urban environmental pollutant emissions in different cities differ significantly according to variations in the industrial structures,public transportation facilities,and population densities.