Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.     

交通网络内生产要素集散机理及模式研究--以沈大高速公路为例

文章以交通网络环境下生产要素的集聚与扩散作为研究对象,以"点-轴系统"理论作为生产要素集聚与扩散的理论基础,分析了高速公路占据突出重要地位的交通网络的生产要素集聚与扩散的模式,并以沈大高速公路为例进行实地论证。     

Efficient sampling and data reduction techniques for probabilistic seismic lifeline risk assessment

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment for spatially distributed lifelines is less straightforward than for individual structures. While procedures such as the ‘PEER framework’ have been developed for risk assessment of individual structures, these are not easily applicable to distributed lifeline systems, due to difficulties in describing ground‐motion intensity (e.g. spectral acceleration) over a region (in contrast to ground‐motion intensity at a single site, which is easily quantified using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis), and since the link between the ground‐motion intensities and lifeline performance is usually not available in closed form. As a result, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and its variants are well suited for characterizing ground motions and computing resulting losses to lifelines. This paper proposes a simulation‐based framework for developing a small but stochastically representative catalog of earthquake ground‐motion intensity maps that can be used for lifeline risk assessment. In this framework, Importance Sampling is used to preferentially sample ‘important’ ground‐motion intensity maps, and K‐Means Clustering is used to identify and combine redundant maps in order to obtain a small catalog. The effects of sampling and clustering are accounted for through a weighting on each remaining map, so that the resulting catalog is still a probabilistically correct representation. The feasibility of the proposed simulation framework is illustrated by using it to assess the seismic risk of a simplified model of the San Francisco Bay Area transportation network. A catalog of just 150 intensity maps is generated to represent hazard at 1038 sites from 10 regional fault segments causing earthquakes with magnitudes between five and eight. The risk estimates obtained using these maps are consistent with those obtained using conventional MCS utilizing many orders of magnitudes more ground‐motion intensity maps. Therefore, the proposed technique can be used to drastically reduce the computational expense of a simulation‐based risk assessment, without compromising the accuracy of the risk estimates. This will facilitate computationally intensive risk analysis of systems such as transportation networks. Finally, the study shows that the uncertainties in the ground‐motion intensities and the spatial correlations between ground‐motion intensities at various sites must be modeled in order to obtain unbiased estimates of lifeline risk. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浅析水泥厂总平面创新设计

水泥厂总平面布置处于水泥厂设计中总揽全局的地位,它涉及众多领域及学科,结合水泥厂特点,着重从节约用地、统一规划、功能分区、场地利用、运输系统、绿化及生态保护,创造可持续发展空间等几方面分析总图创新设计。实践表明,总图创新设计的途径和措施切实可行,成效显著,带有普遍意义。     

The Evolution and Research Trends of Port Geography

Despite the long existence of port geography research, there has been no systematic investigation on its evolution and research trends. Hence, through investigating 155 port geography articles featured in geography journals between 1956 and 2011, this article studied the evolution and research trends of port geography. The article argues that port geography had gradually evolved from a secondary and encyclopedic subdiscipline within transport and human geographies to a primary and specialized one. Such a trend had blurred its “geographicalness,” however, with port geography moving toward the more applied and interdisciplinary transportation. The article also indicates that further research would be required to understand the communication between port geography and other disciplines, as well as philosophical and epistemological issues.     

Bartering for Basics: Using Ethnography and Travel Diaries to Understand Transportation Constraints and Social Networks Among Working-Poor Women

Working-poor women face many challenges in their quest for economic self-sufficiency. Although welfare reform promises jobs, women do not have equal access to necessary services, including transportation. With the 2010 reauthorization of TANF (Temporary Asssistance for Needy Women), there is a need to develop a methodology that uses qualitative individual-level data to evaluate whether public transportation will serve working-poor single mothers in this quest for self-sufficiency. Using ethnography, travel diaries, and a GIS for a sample of women in the process of leaving welfare in Knoxville, Tennessee, travel behavior is examined both qualitatively and quantitatively in order to understand why they rarely use public transportation. Further research into the ways these women move around in a sprawling, medium-sized city reinforces and seeks to understand the extensive social networks working-poor mothers rely on. These women create communities of spatial necessity, bartering for basic needs to overcome transportation constraints.     

热液中二氧化硅与成矿元素锡络合作用的实验标定

热液中二氧化硅与成矿元素锡络合作用的实验标定＊樊文苓陈紫新王声远田弋夫（中国科学院矿床地球化学开放研究实验室，贵阳５５０００２）关键词锡石溶解度二氧化硅的络合作用迁移形式前人对锡在流体中迁移形式的实验研究和热力学计算表明，锡（Ⅱ）的多种氯络合物是高温...     

公交车辆全线运行状态的监督站牌及查询系统

针对出行者对公交车辆运行信息的需求,基于GPS技术设计了一个动态显示公交车辆位置信息的监督站牌系统,并提供公交位置信息的网络查询服务,方便出行者了解公交车辆的实时运营信息,以及对公交车辆的实时监督.系统以LabVIEW为软件开发平台对数据进行分析与处理,利用ASP.NET进行Web网页开发并与数据库交互,实现公交系统的智能运营和智能服务.通过实际验证,该方案具有可行性、实用性.     

Weather as a Chronic Hazard for Road Transportation in Canadian Cities

Inclement weather creates a chronic hazard for Canadian travellers. Past studies indicate that road collision rates increase during precipitation, although the magnitude of theincrease varies from study to study, partly as a result of variations in weather and driving conditions,but also because of differences in methods. The goal of the current study is to improve ourunderstanding of the links between weather and travel risk in mid-sized Canadian cities by using astandardized method for analyzing data from six cities with different climates: Halifax-Dartmouth,Ottawa, Québec, Hamilton, Waterloo Region, and Regina. The study has four interrelated objectives: (1) Toconduct a sensitivity analysis to determine the extent to which risk estimates vary depending onthe criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions; (2) To compare therelative risk of collision and injury during precipitation relative to `normal' conditions; (3) Todetermine the extent to which weather-related risks vary fordifferent Canadian cities; and (4) To explore any differences in collision characteristics between events and controls, especially as theyvary from city to city. Results are based on a matched-pair analysis, using six-hour time blocks over afour-year period, 1995 to 1998. Results indicate only modest sensitivity to the criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions. On average, precipitation is associated with a 75 percentincrease in traffic collisions and a 45 percent increase in related injuries, as compared to `normal'seasonal conditions, but risk levels vary depending on the characteristics of the weather event.Both sensitivity to specific weather conditions and weather-related accident profiles vary from city tocity in ways that are not easily explained.