Land-use and sustainability under intersecting global change and domestic policy scenarios: Trajectories for Australia to 2050

Understanding potential future influence of environmental, economic, and social drivers on land-use and sustainability is critical for guiding strategic decisions that can help nations adapt to change, anticipate opportunities, and cope with surprises. Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, we undertook a comprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia’s agricultural land from 2013–2050, under interacting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land-uses and assessed the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1 km grid cells) and temporal (annual) resolution. We found substantial potential for land-use transition from agriculture to carbon plantings, environmental plantings, and biofuels cropping under certain scenarios, with impacts on the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services including food/fibre production, emissions abatement, water resource use, biodiversity services, and energy production. However, the type, magnitude, timing, and location of land-use responses and their impacts were highly dependent on scenario parameter assumptions including global outlook and emissions abatement effort, domestic land-use policy settings, land-use change adoption behaviour, productivity growth, and capacity constraints. With strong global abatement incentives complemented by biodiversity-focussed domestic land-use policy, land-use responses can substantially increase and diversify economic returns to land and produce a much wider range of ecosystem services such as emissions abatement, biodiversity, and energy, without major impacts on agricultural production. However, better governance is needed for managing potentially significant water resource impacts. The results have wide-ranging implications for land-use and sustainability policy and governance at global and domestic scales and can inform strategic thinking and decision-making about land-use and sustainability in Australia. A comprehensive and freely available 26 GB data pack (http://doi.org/10.4225/08/5604A2E8A00CC) provides a unique resource for further research. As similarly nuanced transformational change is also possible elsewhere, our template for comprehensive, integrated, quantitative, and high resolution scenario analysis can support other nations in strategic thinking and decision-making to prepare for an uncertain future.     

Closing the governance gaps in the water-energy-food nexus: Insights from integrative governance

The water-energy-food nexus has become a popular concept in environmental change research and policy debates. Proponents suggest that a nexus approach promotes policy coherence through identifying optimal policy mixes and governance arrangements across the water, energy and food sectors. Although the nexus literature identifies some barriers to achieving coherence it does not clearly explain why the barriers are present, what influences them, and how they can be acted upon. These gaps disconnect the nexus literature from the governance processes it ultimately seeks to influence. This paper examines how the integrative environmental governance literature can help to close these gaps. It extracts insights from seven streams of research literature and discusses their relevance for the nexus literature. We argue that connecting the nexus to decision-making processes requires: i) rethinking the boundaries of nexus analysis vis-à-vis other sectors and levels; ii) elaboration of shared principles that can guide decision-making towards policy coherence − or an appropriate form of fragmentation − in different contexts; iii) viewing policy coherence as a continuous process of changing values and perception rather than as an outcome.     

Seizing policy windows: Policy Influence of climate advocacy coalitions in Brazil,China, and India, 2000–2015

What drives the development of climate policy? Brazil, China, and India have all changed their climate policies since 2000, and single-case analyses of climate policymaking have found that all three countries have had climate coalitions working to promote climate policies. To what extent have such advocacy coalitions been able to influence national policies for climate-change mitigation, and what can explain this? Employing a new approach that combines the advocacy coalition framework (ACF) with insights from comparative environmental politics and the literature on policy windows, this paper identifies why external parameters like political economy and institutional structures are crucial for explaining the climate advocacy coalitions’ ability to seize policy windows and influence policy development. We find that the coalitions adjust their policy strategies to the influence-opportunity structures in each political context—resulting in confrontation in Brazil, cooperation in China, and a complementary role in India.     

Man and Nature: George Perkins Marsh and Alexander Von Humboldt

George Perkins Marsh's book Man and Nature was the first work of natural history to fundamentally influence American politics. This paper establishes the powerful impact that Alexander von Humboldt's writings had on Marsh. Marsh took ideas that Humboldt introduced across his books and synthesized them into a single powerful argument regarding the dangers of deforestation. These warnings eventually led to policies that sought to more carefully manage forestland, plant trees, and spawn the 20^th century conservation movement.     

“Contested policy mobility”: the creative transformation and temporary use of brownfields in Redtory,Guangzhou

This article argues that the changing distribution of power between coalitions of stakeholders challenges typical top-down dynamics of policy mobility, and causes contestations that in turn lead to the multi-scalar co-construction of policy- and place-making in China. When property-led redevelopment, commandeered by the coalition between government and investors, could no longer dominate the renewal of brownfield sites, a nationally endorsed mobile policy of creative transformation led China’s renewal of these areas into a new phase of “contested policy mobility”. Three kinds of contestations have been observed in Redtory, Guangzhou. First, in adopting the alternative mobile policy of using brownfields temporarily before permanent redevelopment, local governments were aiming to retain control of development rights throughout a nationally mandated urban economic “creative transformation” process. Second, emerging new interest groups from within the public sphere were able to resist subsequent redevelopment plans, thereby challenging the mobile policy’s top-down momentum. Finally, divisive interests within the coalition ultimately weakened their power when contesting the government and investors.     

Effectiveness of the structural fisheries policy in the European Union

This paper presents an analysis of the effectiveness of the community structural policy in the fisheries sector by comparing the relative level of compliance with objectives (reduction of fleets and economic viability) with the mechanisms that have been implemented (structural funds and allocation of quotas). On the one hand, this analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the level of structural funds and the attainment of goals. On the other hand, it was found that the greater the relative availability of quotas, the poorer the countries performed in complying with the objective of reducing the fishing capacity, and the higher the expectations of achieving acceptable yields. These correlations, however, were not very strong.     

Success in heading north?: South Korea's master plan for Arctic policy

South Korea's seven governmental ministries and agency jointly announced a “Master Plan for Arctic Policy” on December 10, 2013. This represents the state's first comprehensive Arctic policy document. This paper aims to analyze the Korean government's Master Plan from both the legal and policy perspectives, as well as to make constructive comments for its improvement. Environmental changes, the need for scientific research, growing economic optimism about the Arctic region, and political leadership have led South Korea to head north. These four factors form the basis for the Master Plan. This document outlines Korea's vision (to be a reliable and responsible partner in this polar region), three policy goals, four strategies, and thirty-one projects connected to the Arctic region. The formation of the Master Plan has been an opportunity for South Korea to organize and compile all the various Arctic activities independently conducted by governmental ministries and agency. In order to improve South Korea's Arctic policy since the Master Plan, the author recommends that the nation prioritize its projects according to its needs and the feasibility of each project. Prudence is required in the drafting and implementation of Arctic policy to respect Arctic states' sovereignties and sovereign rights over the Arctic areas. Finally, strengthening cooperation with the Arctic states and at Arctic forums is indispensable. In particular, bilateral cooperation is essential for South Korea to perform economic activities such as the exploration for oil and gas.     

A revisitation of TRIX for trophic status assessment in the light of the European Water Framework Directive: application to Italian coastal waters

The trophic status classification of coastal waters at the European scale requires the availability of harmonised indicators and procedures. The composite trophic status index (TRIX) provides useful metrics for the assessment of the trophic status of coastal waters. It was originally developed for Italian coastal waters and then applied in many European seas (Adriatic, Tyrrhenian, Baltic, Black and Northern seas). The TRIX index does not fulfil the classification procedure suggested by the WFD for two reasons: (a) it is based on an absolute trophic scale without any normalization to type-specific reference conditions; (b) it makes an ex ante aggregation of biological (Chl-a) and physico-chemical (oxygen, nutrients) quality elements, instead of an ex post integration of separate evaluations of biological and subsequent chemical quality elements. A revisitation of the TRIX index in the light of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000/60/EC) and new TRIX derived tools are presented in this paper. A number of Italian coastal sites were grouped into different types based on a thorough analysis of their hydro-morphological conditions, and type-specific reference sites were selected. Unscaled TRIX values (UNTRIX) for reference and impacted sites have been calculated and two alternative UNTRIX-based classification procedures are discussed. The proposed procedures, to be validated on a broader scale, provide users with simple tools that give an integrated view of nutrient enrichment and its effects on algal biomass (Chl-a) and on oxygen levels. This trophic evaluation along with phytoplankton indicator species and algal blooms contribute to the comprehensive assessment of phytoplankton, one of the biological quality elements in coastal waters.     

活动断层、地震灾害与减灾对策问题

本文在对活动断层的定义和相关概念的论述基础上,通过活动断层与地震灾害间空间分布上的相关性分析,以及海原断裂带松山和阿尔金断裂带阿克塞老城西等地点的探槽地质剖面的介纠等,揭示出活动断层近地表永久性地质变形的局部化特征,永久变形带宽度一般小于30m。文章最后介绍了美国加州地震断层划定法案的主要内容和活动断层填图计划作为积极有效减灾的一项公益性对策,指出中国大陆地区应有步骤地开展大比例尺活动断层填图来有效地减轻可能遭遇的地震灾害。