多金属结核的沉积物地球化学场

远洋沉积物是多金属结核赖以生长的场所，本文系统地研究了沉积物中主要成矿元素水成组分在不同地球化学场和不同沉积阶段的地球化学特征，以及水成组分的含量比与成矿作用的相互关系。研究表明，Ｍｎ、Ｆｅ、Ｃｏ、Ｎｉ、Ｃｕ都是一些比较活泼的元素，它们共处于多金属结核、沉积物和大洋水的统一体系中，当结核形成时，Ｍｎ、Ｆｅ、Ｎｉ、Ｃｕ在结核与沉积物中的含量呈负相关，而Ｃｏ含量呈正相关。研究区东部结核以富含Ｍｎ、Ｎｉ、Ｃｕ贫Ｆｅ、Ｃｏ为特征，其伴生沉积物相对贫Ｍｎ、Ｎｉ、Ｃｕ、Ｃｏ，而富Ｆｅ，可称之为贫化的地球化学场。研究区西部结核富含Ｆｅ、Ｃｏ而贫Ｍｎ、Ｎｉ、Ｃｕ，其伴生沉积物则相应贫Ｆｅ，而富Ｍｎ、Ｎｉ、Ｃｕ、和Ｃｏ，可称之为富化的地球化学场。可以看出，贫化的沉积物地球化学场，恰恰是寻找富矿结核的最佳场所。早中新世以来的沉积物，根据水成组分的含量或含量比，也可相应于结核的形成分为三大沉积阶段，其中的第Ⅱ阶段具有贫化的地球化学特征，是多金属结核形成的最有利时期     

Climate policy innovation in the South – Domestic and international determinants of renewable energy policies in developing and emerging countries

This article attempts to disentangle the determinants of the adoption of renewable energy support policies in developing and emerging countries. By analyzing policies already implemented in industrialized countries, we focus on the diffusion but not the invention of climate-relevant policies. We look at four different types of policies (renewable energy targets, feed-in tariffs, other financial incentives and framework policies) and consider both domestic factors and international diffusion mechanisms utilizing a discrete-time events history model with a logit link on a self-compiled dataset of grid-based electricity policy adoption in 112 developing and emerging countries from 1998 to 2009. In general, we find stronger support for the domestic determinants of policy adoption, but also substantial influence of international factors. Countries with a larger population and more wealth have a higher probability of adopting renewable energy policies. Only in some specific cases do natural endowments for producing renewable energy encourage governments to adopt policies, and hydro power resources even correlate negatively with the adoption of targets. Among the international determinants, emulation from colonial peers and membership within the EU seem to facilitate policy adoption. International climate finance is less relevant, as the Global Environmental Facility and the Clean Development Mechanism may only increase the adoption of frameworks and targets, but they have no influence on tariffs and incentives.     

澳大利亚冷空气活动与西北太平洋台风频次的关系分析

利用中国气象局《台风年鉴》资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析1968—2006年北半球夏季（6—9月）澳大利亚冷空气活动与西北太平洋夏季台风频次（WNPSTYF）的关系,并研究其影响的可能机制。结果表明,夏季澳大利亚东部对流层经向风年际增量变化与WNPSTYF年际增量变化呈显著正相关;西太平洋近赤道区对流层上层纬向风年际增量与同期WNPSTYF年际增量呈显著负相关。澳大利亚冷空气活动影响WNPSTYF的可能机理是:当澳大利亚东部从对流层低层至上层的经向风年际增量有南风异常时（此时澳大利亚西侧对流层上层有年际增量的北风异常）,冷空气在向低纬移动过程中受热上升,同时因柯氏力向左偏转,并在对流层上层向中纬度辐散,导致110～160 °E区间的南半球近赤道附近对流层上层纬向风年际增量的偏北东风异常;由于赤道上空大气运动的无旋转特性及连续性,北半球也会出现同向的纬向风年际增量异常。赤道附近对流层上层纬向风年际增量的东风异常产生纬向风的经向切变,使对流层上层出现涡度年际增量的负异常;对流层上层涡度年际增量负异常的抽吸作用导致对流层低层出现涡度年际增量的正异常,利于台风生成,导致台风年际增量偏多。反之亦反。      

1999—2003年西北太平洋热带气旋综合预报的误差分析

应用1999—2003年中国中央气象台 (CMO)、日本气象厅 (JMA) 以及美国联合台风警报中心 (JTWC) 发布的西北太平洋热带气旋综合预报资料, 从总误差、逐年误差趋势、不同海区误差、不同路径趋势误差、不同强度趋势误差等5个方面对各预报中心的路径及强度预报结果进行分析, 结果表明:5年总的平均误差以JTWC的路径预报误差最小, 而JMA的强度预报较准确; 在不同海域, 各预报中心的路径预报能力各有优势, 但在热带气旋的强度预报方面, JMA的方法在各海区都较稳定; 对不同路径趋势热带气旋的预报方面, 除了南海转向热带气旋的路径预报比JMA和CMO稍差一些之外, JTWC的路径预报在大多数情况下都是好于或相当于JMA和CMO; 在不同强度变化趋势热带气旋的预报方面, JTWC在大多数情况下都优于其他中心。上述结果帮助业务和科技人员全面了解各预报中心的预报能力优劣, 也为今后改进我国的热带气旋预报提供有益的参考。     

Isotopic tracers for water masses in the coastal region of eastern Hokkaido

In this study we used two stable isotopes, δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O, for water mass classification in the coastal region off eastern Hokkaido. δ¹³C* values, which were corrected for the biological effect, and δ ¹⁸O values up to 300 m depth suggested that the isotopic character of the onshore and offshore water in the southern Okhotsk Sea, the Nemuro Strait and the western North Pacific could be explained by the mixing of three source waters: the Oyashio water (OYW), Soya Warm Current water (SWCW) and East Sakhalin Current water (ESCW). In summer, δ ¹³C*-δ ¹⁸O plots indicated mixing between SWCW from the southern Okhotsk Sea and OYW in the Pacific coast of southeastern Hokkaido, while temperature-salinity plots of the onshore water showed minimal difference from the offshore OYW. In winter, on the other hand, the mixed water of ESCW and OYW (or SWCW) appeared in the Pacific coastal region, distributed as cold, low salinity onshore water. Finally, we estimated mixing ratios of OYW, SWCW and ESCW in the coastal region of western North Pacific using their mean values of δ ¹³C* and δ ¹⁸O as endmembers. These results suggest seasonal and yearly changes of water mass combination en route from the southern Okhotsk Sea to the western North Pacific.     

The watermass variability and southward shift of the Southern Hemispheremid-depth supergyre

The Southern Hemisphere subtropical supergyre at intermediate depths connects all three ocean basins and plays a significant role in responding and conveying the climate-change-related variations in the glob- al ocean. On the basis of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation/SODA） ocean reanalysis, the thermohaline variability and southward shift of the mid-depth supergyre are demonstrated. The steric height of the sub- surface relative to 1 500 m （400-1 500 m） from the SODA depicts exactly the flow patterns and variability of the oceanic supergyre. During 1958-2007 the water masses in the gyre interiors become cooler/fresher, with the significant exceptions of the Agulhas Current system and Agulhas leakage. The results also exhibit a pronounced strengthening of the inter-basin connection of the supergyre, and the strongest southward shift, by about 2.5° over the whole period, occurs in the central-south Pacific, which is associated with the changes in the basin-scale wind forcing.     

In search of meaningful assessment in the university curriculum: the case for culturally relevant pedagogy

ABSTRACT

The poor performance of Pacific students at university is a concern for every level of society. Conventional models of teaching, learning and assessment have overlooked the cultural background of students, yet the effects of this oversight have been disastrous, alienating and disempowering. Studies of and developments in education in the Pacific and elsewhere offer opportunities to rethink the methods of teaching, learning and assessment of Pacific students in ways that are congruent with their home culture. Informed by the principle of so’a lau pule (the Samoan concept of consensus through consultation and conversation) and ethnographic research methods, this study describes an attempt to rethink ways of teaching, learning and assessing student performance in a third-year course on Resource Conservation and Management in the School of Geography, Earth Science and Environment at the University of the South Pacific. Introduced in 2007, the Student Innovative Contribution to Knowledge (SICK) allows students to participate in key decisions concerning teaching, learning and assessment. SICK is grounded in the principles of inclusiveness and participation. It takes account of the skills and abilities of Pacific students and is aligned with the philosophical basis of Pacific cultures. One hundred and fifty-eight students took part in this study over a 5-year period. Analysis was based on students’ written reviews of the semester’s work, in-depth conversation with individual students and the end-of-the-course evaluation. The findings show that, while students embrace the need for non-conventional forms of teaching, learning and assessment, the most frequently cited responses for non-participation are poor time management and varying perceptions of what is considered an innovative assessment. This study shows that understanding the cultural background of students is critical to creating culturally inclusive learning environments.     

我国海岛旅游发展与生态环境耦合协调评价与影响因素研究

海岛旅游发展与生态环境协调是实现人海关系可持续发展的基础。选取中国12个海岛县（市、区）作为研究区,首先基于CSAED模型和PSR模型分别构建了旅游发展水平和生态环境质量评价指标体系,并借助BP神经网络模型测算其2018年旅游发展水平与生态环境质量,同时引入耦合协调模型对旅游发展与生态环境的协调程度进行定量评价,最后运用地理加权回归模型探究影响其协调发展的因素。结果表明：①我国12个海岛旅游发展与生态环境的协调程度整体上有待提升,多处于勉强协调状态。②我国12个海岛中75%的海岛旅游发展的速度还未超越生态环境的承载力,但其协调程度低,其不协调的发展状态将会导致旅游的发展超越生态环境的承载力。③旅游吸引力和生态脆弱压力对海岛旅游与生态环境的协调发展影响显著,旅游吸引力与协调程度呈负向影响,空间上旅游吸引力对协调程度的影响自南向北逐渐减弱;生态脆弱压力与耦合协调程度呈正向影响,空间上生态脆弱压力对协调程度的影响自南向北逐渐增强。     

支持向量机与卡尔曼滤波集合的西太平洋副热带高压数值预报误差修正

基于T106数值预报产品资料,提出了支持向量机和卡尔曼滤波相结合的方法来进行夏季西太平洋副热带高压数值预报的误差修正与预报优化.首先采用支持向量机方法建立了西太平洋副热带高压面积指数的误差修正模型.基于支持向量机预报优化模型尽管有比较好的拟合精度和预报效果,但与实际副热带高压指数尚有一定的差异.究其原因,除预报对象(副热带高压)本身比较复杂、模型优化因子不够充分以及数值预报误差自身的随机性以外,优化模型的输入、输出基本上是一个静态映射结构,因此前一时刻的预测误差难以得到有效的反馈、调整和修正.为考虑前一时刻预报误差的反馈信息,动态跟踪副高的变化趋势,随后引入卡尔曼滤波方法建立支持向量机-卡尔曼滤波模型,对支持向量机模型的输出结果作进一步的调整和优化.试验结果表明,该方法模型的预报优化效果优于T106数值预报产品以及单纯的神经网络修正模型和卡尔曼滤波修正模型的优化效果,能够较为客观、有效地修正西太平洋副热带高压指数的数值预报误差,改进和优化西太平洋副热带高压的数值预报效果.该方法为副热带高压等复杂天气系统和要素场预报提供了一种新的思路,表现出较好的应用前景.