天津滨海新区潜在淹没区发展趋势研究

本文利用2006年以前天滓地面沉降监测资料和塘沽、汉沽地区潜在淹没区RTK加密观测资料,以水准监测点为基本研究对象,深入分析研究了每个测点随时间的沉降变化规律,进而“以点带面”绘制了2005年和2011年天津滨海新区地面沉降速率等值线图。同时,还绘制了2005年塘沽、汉沽地区潜在淹没区地面标高等值线分布图,以及预测的2011年塘沽、汉沽地区潜在淹没区的时空分布和面积。最后,提出了应对地面沉降的相关建议,以供政府控制地面沉降时参考。     

Mapping radar-derived sea surface currents with a variational method

High-frequency radars measure projections of surface velocity vectors on the directions of the radar beams. A variational method for reconstruction of the 2d velocity field from such observations is proposed. The interpolation problem is regularized by penalizing high-frequency variability of the surface vorticity and divergence fields. Twin-data experiments are used to assess the method's skill and compare it with two well-known approaches to HFR data processing: conventional local interpolation and more sophisticated non-local scheme known as open-boundary modal analysis (OMA). It is shown that the variational method and OMA have a significant advantage over local interpolation because of their ability to reconstruct the velocity field within the gaps in data coverage, near the coastlines and in the areas covered only by one radar. Compared to OMA, the proposed variational method appears to be more flexible in processing gappy observations and more accurate at noise levels below 30%.     

利用随机天气模式及多种插值方法生成逐日气候变化情景的研究

针对目前大气环流模式在用于气候变化影响评估研究中时间分辨率较低的局恨性, 以及气候情景的要求和气候变化影响研究的需要, 结合GCM的模拟试验结果, 利用随机天气模式WGEN生成了中国东北地区未来气候变化的逐日情景, 其中包含了可能的气候变率信息, 可与作物动力模式等气候影响模式嵌套, 研究作物生长发育及其产量的可能变化, 及气候变率变化的可能影响等.     

融合降水实况分析产品在四川地区的适用性评估

利用四川省地面自动站2018年6月—2019年5月的逐小时降水观测资料,在邻近插值和双线性插值对比分析的基础上,从晴雨准确率、降水时空特征、降水分量级检验等多个方面,对国家气象信息中心研制的融合降水实况分析产品在四川地区的适用性进行评估分析.评估结果表明:(1)邻近插值和双线性插值对评估结果影响小.(2)融合降水实况分...     

Response of groundwater chemistry to water deliveries in the lower reaches of Tarim River,Northwest China

In this paper, we analysed the monitored data from nine groundwater-monitoring transects in the lower reaches of Tarim River during the five times of stream water deliveries to the river transect where the stream flow ceased. The results showed that the groundwater depth in the lower reaches of Tarim River rose from −9.30 m before the conveyances to −8.17 and −6.50 m after the first and second conveyances, −5.81 and −6.00 m after the third and fourth the conveyance, and −4.73 m after the fifth. The horizontal extent of groundwater recharge was gradually enlarged along both sides of the channel of conveyance, i.e., from 250 m in width after the first conveyance to 1,050 m away from the channel after the fourth delivery. With the rising groundwater level, the concentrations of major anions Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻ and cations Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, as well as total dissolved solids (TDS) in groundwater underwent a significant change. The spatial variations in groundwater chemistry indicated that the groundwater chemistry at the transect near Daxihaizi Reservoir changed earlier than that farther from it. In the same transect, the chemical variations were earlier in the monitoring well close to watercourse than that farther away from the stream. In general, the concentration of the major ions and TDS at each monitoring well increased remarkably when the water delivery started, and decreased with the continued water delivery, and then increased once again at the end of the study period. Hence, the whole study period may be divided into three stages: the initial stage, the intermediate stage and the later stage. According to the three stages of groundwater chemistry reaction to water delivery and the relationships between groundwater chemical properties and groundwater depths, we educe that under the situation of water delivery, the optimum groundwater depth in the lower reaches of the Tarim River should be −5 m.     

数值天气预报中的两类反问题及一种数值解法──理想试验

针对数值预报中产生误差的两个来源提出了数值预报中存在着两类反问题。并在一维的非线性平流扩散方程上，用共轭方程的解法对提出的两类反问题作出了理想场的数值试验。试验结果表明，这种解反问题的方法非常有效。它利用＂观测资料＂所包含的时间演变的信息确定出了方程的初值或方程中误差订正项的空间分布状况。而且无论对＂观测资料＂的超定还是欠定都能得出较有意义的结果。因而有很大的利用前景。     

笛卡儿坐标系的双多普勒天气雷达三维风场反演技术

文中研究了笛卡尔坐标系下双多普勒天气雷达三维风场反演技术 ,提出了包括雷达原始资料的预处理 ,空间插值以及可靠性检验的新方法 ,提高了反演结果的可信度和精确度。使用模拟的双多普勒雷达体扫资料进行了反演试验 ,结果表明 :本文的方法能够比较真实地反映风场的三维结构 ,可以用于真实风场的反演。     

新一代天气雷达观测受遮挡范围内数据插补的技术方法

新一代天气雷达的建设和使用中会不可避免地遇到地形遮挡的问题。本文以南京、连云港两部新一代天气雷达为例,探讨了一种遮挡范围内进行数据插补的技术方法,以弥补雷达产品生成中的缺陷问题,尤其是解决雷达定量测量面降雨量场的补缺问题,对其它地方的新一代天气雷达观测有一定的参考意义。     

新一代天气雷达网资料的三维格点化及拼图方法研究

文中研究了几种把球坐标系下的雷达网反射率体扫资料插值到统一的笛卡尔坐标系下的经纬度网格上以及用多个雷达的反射率网格资料进行三维拼图的方法,并对多个雷达同步观测的反射率因子的空间一致性、系统误差以及雷达等距离线上回波的水平和垂直结构进行了分析。结果发现:在雷达资料格点化过程中,径向和方位上的最近邻居法和垂直方向的线性内插法的结合(NVI方法)是一种有效的雷达资料分析方法,它既能得到空间比较连续的反射率分析场,同时也较好地保留了体扫资料中原有的反射率结构特征;广州雷达和梅州雷达同步观测的空间一致性比较好;在多个雷达资料合成拼图的过程中,距离指数权重平均法能提供空间连续的三维反射率拼图数据,拼图也减轻了由雷达波束几何学引起的各种问题。     

山地冰川与湖泊萎缩所指示的亚洲中部气候干暖化趋势与未来展望

天山北坡乌鲁木齐河1号冰川与土尤克苏冰川物质平衡观察表示80年代比以前出现大的亏损。青海湖与伊赛克湖在近百年一直处于萎缩状态。从小冰期最盛时以来,乌鲁木齐河谷中冰川面积已缩去44％。上述及其他冰川与湖泊变化证据清楚地指示本世纪气候干暖化趋势增强了,并可能延续到下世纪初。但如由于CO_2及其他痕量气体增加所致的温室效应使下世纪重现全新世早、中期那样的高温,则亚洲中部有可能转为潮湿。