Modeling of coupled tide–wave–surge process in the Yellow Sea

A coupled wave–tide–surge model has been developed in this study in order to investigate the effect of the interactions among tides, storm surges, and wind waves. The coupled model is based on the synchronous dynamic coupling of a third-generation wave model, WAM cycle 4, and the two-dimensional tide–surge model. The surface stress, which is generated by interactions between wind and wave, is calculated by using the WAM model directly based on an analytical approximation of the results using the quasi-linear theory of wave generation. The changes in bottom friction are created by the interactions between waves and currents and calculated by using simplified bottom boundary layer model. In consequence, the combined wave–current-induced bottom velocity and effective bottom drag coefficient were increased in the shallow waters during the strong storm conditions.     

卫星网与地面网联合平差中随机模型的估计

本文讨论了卫星网与地面网联合平差中随机模型误差及其对联合平差结果的影响,应用方差分量估计方法对卫星网和地面网的随机模型进行了估计,并对模拟网与实测网的计算结果进行了分析。     

常用剂量氟苯尼考在罗非鱼肝脏和肾脏中的消除规律及组织学影响

在水温28℃条件下,以12 mg/kg剂量对罗非鱼单次口服给药,采用HPLC方法测定不同时间实验鱼肝脏和肾脏中的药物水平,分析氟苯尼考在罗非鱼肝、肾组织的吸收及消除规律。结果显示,肝脏和肾脏中的药动学参数均符合药动学一室模型,肝脏的药物消除速度快于肾脏,消除半衰期T1/2β分别为4.89 h和15.93 h;药物在肝脏的Tmax为5.43 h,吸收峰值为4.84μg/g;59 h后肝、肾组织中的药物含量均低于0.8μg/g。取12 mg/kg剂量连续给药7 d的实验鱼肝、肾组织,进行组织学观察,结果显示,给药组罗非鱼的肝、肾组织均未出现病理性变化。此外,氟苯尼考对6株罗非鱼常见病原菌的体外抑菌实验中,最小抑菌浓度(MIC)均≤4 mg/L,表明常用剂量氟苯尼考在罗非鱼体内消除快、残留少且不造成组织损伤,对常见病原菌具有良好的抑菌效果。     

基于灰色系统的黄龙钙华景观演化研究

黄龙的景观是在数万年的岩溶地质作用下的产物。近年来黄龙钙华出现了干涸、变黑、沙化等现象严重地影响了景观的观赏性。水资源在黄龙钙华发展变化中起着重要的作用，笔者通过收集并分析黄龙地区的监测数据，针对监测系统不健全．时序数据缺乏的特点，选用对时序数据要求不高、预测效果较好的灰色系统模型，以岩溶水体的pH值为指标预测了钙华未来的发展情况。采用地质统计学空间分析的克里金插值法，对预测结果进行插值获得了整个景区的钙华预测结果。笔者按pH值将钙华演化情况划为强侵蚀、弱侵蚀、堆积3种类型，指出黄龙钙华景观目前正处于动态平衡与消亡重组阶段。     

一个区域气候模式对ENSO衰减年夏季中国东部降水的模拟

The performance of the Climate version of the Regional Eta-coordinate Model (CREM), a regional climate model developed by State Key Laboratory of Nu- merical modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP), in simulating rainfall anomalies during the ENSO decaying summers from 1982 to 2002 was evaluated. The added value of rainfall simulation relative to reanalysis data and the sources of model bias were studied. Results showed that the model simulated rainfall anomalies moderately well. The model did well at capturing the above-normal rainfall along the Yangtze River valley (YRV) during El Nio decaying summers and the below and above-normal rainfall centers along the YRV and the Huaihe River valley (HRV), respectively, during La Nia decaying summers. These features were not evident in rainfall products derived from the reanalysis, indicating that rainfall simulation did add value. The main limitations of the model were that the simulated rainfall anomalies along the YRV were far stronger and weaker in magnitude than the observations during El Nio decaying summers and La Nia decaying summers, respectively. The stronger magnitude above-normal rainfall during El Nio decaying summers was due to a stronger northward transport of water vapor in the lower troposphere, mostly from moisture advection. An artificial, above-normal rainfall center was seen in the region north to 35°N, which was associated with stronger northward water vapor transport. Both lower tropospheric circulation bias and a wetter model atmosphere contributed to the bias caused by water vapor transport. There was a stronger southward water vapor transport from the southern boundary of the model during La Nia decaying summers;less remaining water vapor caused anomalously weaker rainfall in the model as compared to observations.     

基于集对分析的膨胀土胀缩性Vague集评价模型

膨胀土胀缩性等级评价是膨胀土地区工程治理中的首要问题。本文探讨了基于集对分析的膨胀土胀缩性等级评价模型,以克服膨胀土胀缩性评价指标的不确定性和复杂性。模型以Vague集描述膨胀土胀缩性等级的确定性和不确定性,并应用集对分析构造Vague集的隶属函数。通过实例应用及与其他方法评价结果的对比分析,表明该模型应用于膨胀土胀缩性等级评价是有效可行的,且具有判断结果准确、易于操作等优点。     

GNSS观测值统一表达及组合PPP解算性能分析

针对GNSS多系统组合进行PPP定位的问题,推导了GNSS观测值统一表达式;进而给出了基于UofC模型的多系统组合PPP的函数模型和随机模型;最后采用6个IGS观测站24 h观测数据对7种组合模型的PPP进行解算,并从收敛率、收敛速度和定位精度等方面进行了统计分析。实验结果表明,当观测时长为60 min时,GPS/GLONASS/BDS组合PPP收敛性能最好,收敛率为91.7%,平均收敛时间为16.1 min;而BDS PPP收敛性能最差,收敛率仅为32.7%,平均收敛时间为38.4 min。可见,多系统组合有利于提高精密单点定位的解算性能。对于定位精度,在观测时长较短时(如0.5 h),GPS/GLONASS/BDS组合PPP整体上具有最优的定位精度,(N,E)方向偏差和标准差分别为(0.3,0.5)cm和(1.9,4.3)cm;短时间内对流层参数与垂直方向的强相关性,将致使U方向精度较差。     

预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

Constraints to effective adoption of innovative livestock production technologies in the Rift Valley (Kenya)

We surveyed small-scale farmers in the Kenyan Rift Valley province (Narok and Nakuru districts) to describe constraints to, and changes in, livestock production and to assess the extent to which farmers have adopted new technologies promoted by extension services. In the arid areas of southern Narok, farmers' main constraints were drought and disease. Farmers in Nakuru district, situated in the fertile highlands of the Rift Valley, were also affected by disease but also lacked markets and capital. Although 83% of the farmers had regular contact with extension services that provided advice on new technologies and livestock production innovations, only about half of the respondents implemented the proposed changes. Many of those who did change (38%) improved pasture/nutrition/manure management and relatively few (16%) improved their animal breeding practices. Results of a multinomial logit model revealed that, apart from the significant differences between the two districts, the nature of the advice and the expected outcomes had the strongest influence on the probability of successfully implementing changes to livestock production. The results further suggest that adoption of new technologies is limited by lack of knowledge, inadequate support and a failure to target local needs and conditions and empower livestock keepers.     

人工示踪方法评价地下水入渗补给及其优先流程度——以河北栾城和衡水为例

利用传统人工示踪剂峰值方法评价地下水入渗补给存在精度低和适用性差等缺点。为此,本文提出了多区模型方法,采用保守型示踪剂溴和氚对河北栾城和衡水地区进行了不同土地利用方式和不同深度下地下水入渗补给评价。结果表明,栾城和衡水地区地下水入渗补给量分别为124.3 mm/a和13.7 mm/a,与传统方法(103.3 mm/a和0.0 mm/a)相比,多区模型方法的评价结果更符合实际。同时对由优先流引起的地下水入渗补给量进行了分析,栾城和衡水地区优先流程度分别为28.7%和2.3%。秸秆覆盖抑制降雨或灌溉水入渗补给地下水,降低优先流程度,而植被覆盖有利于土壤水优先流的形成。地下水入渗补给量及其优先流程度与示踪深度均无明显相关性,且受土壤结构控制。