渤海风驱-潮致Lagrange余流的数值模拟与季相时空变异

The spatial distribution and seasonal variation of the tide-induced Lagrangian Residual Circulations (LRC hereafter), wind-driven LRC, and the coupling dynamic characteristics were simulated using ECOM, given the Hellerman and Rosenstein global monthly-mean wind stresses. The results showed that the tide-induced LRC of the harmonic constituent M2 bears an identical pattern in four seasons in the Bohai Sea: the surface one is weak with random directions; however, there exist a southeast current from the Bohai Strait to the Laizhou bay, and a weakly anticlockwise gyre in the south of the Bohai Strait for the bottom layer LRC. The magnitude of bottom layer tide-induced LRC is larger than the surface one, and moreover, it contributes significantly to the whole LRC in the Bohai Sea. Unlike the identical structure of the tide-induced LRC, the wind driven LRC varies seasonally under the prevailing monsoon. It forms a distinct gyre under the summer and winter monsoons in July and January respectively, but it seems weak and non-directional in April and September.     

Progress and prospect of research on forest landscape model

The Forest Landscape Model (FLM) is an efficiency tool of quantified expression of forest ecosystem''s structure and function. This paper, on the basis of identifying FLM, according to the stage of development, summarizes the development characteristics of the model, which includes the theoretical foundation of mathematical model, FLM of stand-scale, primary development of spatial landscape model, rapid development of ecosystem process model as the priority, and developing period of structure and process driven by multi-factor. According to the characteristics of different FLMs, this paper classifies the existing FLM in terms of mechanism, property and application, and elaborates the identifications, advantages and disadvantages of different types of models. It summarizes and evaluates the main application fields of existing models from two aspects which are the changes of spatial pattern and ecological process. Eventually, this paper presents FLM''s challenges and directions of development in the future, including: (1) more prominent service on the practical strategy of forest management''s objectives; (2) construction of multi-modules and multi-plugin to satisfy landscape research demand in various conditions; (3) adoption of high resolution''s spatial-temporal data; (4) structural construction of multi-version module; (5) improving the spatial suitability of model application.     

DEM高程基准转换方法及应用

随着数字高程模型(DEM)在电力行业的广泛应用,电力地图需求部门对数字高程模型的要求越来越高.针对在数字高程模型生产中,电力业主方提供的立体模型高程基准不统一的问题,本文提出了基于特征数据的DEM基础转换方法.该方法在进行DEM制作过程中采用先采集特征数据,后转换特征数据高程基准的方式,实现了DEM成果的高程基准的转换...     

新疆蛇绿岩带的分布、特征及研究新进展

新疆位于亚洲大陆的北部,构造上跨越了古亚洲和特提斯两大构造域,现今主要由中新生代盆地和其间的古生代造山带组成。古生代造山带主要由陆缘岩系和岩浆岩组成,其中夹有洋壳残片和前寒武结晶基底的碎块;洋壳残片从北向南大致分布12条,其中出露较集中的约30多处。这些蛇绿岩,以塔里木盆地为界,北部主要为古亚洲洋的洋壳残片,南部主要为特提斯洋的洋壳残片。在介绍其基本特征的同时,本文侧重报道了近年来新疆区域地质调查的一些成果。     

兰州市土壤一蔬菜系统典型重金属空间评价及健康风险分析

通过田间试验和室内分析相结合,对兰州市蔬菜和土壤中重金属cd、Hg、Pb、As和cr的含量进行测定并评估经食入途径对人体的健康风险,同时运用改进的物元模型综合评价兰州市三县四区土壤重金属污染并进行分区。结果表明：（1）兰州市菜地土壤中Cd、Hg、Pb、As和cr的平均含量都高于背景值,存在明显的积累,但均低于《土壤环境...     

季节预测模式对东亚夏季环流的预测能力及其对热带海洋的响应分析

东亚夏季环流变化对中国夏季降水的年际变化有重要影响,因此需要进一步理解季节预测模式对东亚夏季环流的预测能力。利用1991~2013年美国国家环境预测中心（NCEP）、中国气象局国家气候中心（NCC）和日本东京气候中心（TCC）的三个季节预测模式（CFS V2、BCC_CSM V2和MRI-CGCM）以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,定量评估了模式对东亚夏季风（EASM）和夏季西太平洋副热带高压（WPSH）强度的预测能力。在此基础上,分析了模式预测的EASM和WPSH对热带海温异常的响应能力,以及ENSO事件对EASM和WPSH预测的影响,阐述了预测误差产生的原因。结果表明:整体而言,三个模式对EASM和WPSH的预测技巧较高,但TCC模式对WPSH的预测技巧相对较低。三个模式预测的850 hPa风场在西北太平洋存在一个异常气旋,使得预测的EASM偏强和WPSH偏弱。同时,二者的年际变率整体比观测小。三个模式预测的EASM和WPSH对热带海洋海温异常的响应随季节演变特征与观测比较接近,但NCEP模式和TCC模式预测的EASM对前期热带太平洋和前期、同期热带印度洋的海温异常响应要强于观测,NCC模式预测的EASM对前期和同期的热带太平洋的海温异常响应明显比观测强。此外,三个模式预测的WPSH对前期和同期的热带太平洋、热带印度洋和热带大西洋的海温异常响应明显强于观测。三个模式预测的EASM和WPSH在ENSO年的平均绝对误差（MAE）整体而言要比正常年的小很多,NCEP模式和NCC模式预测的EASM和WPSH的MAE在La Ni?a年和El Ni?o年差别不大,而TCC模式预测的EASM和WPSH的MAE在El Ni?o年比在La Ni?a年大很多,表明ENSO事件是东亚夏季环流重要的可预报源。     

东亚冬季风环流异常与中国江淮流域夏季旱涝天气的关系

选取１９５１—１９９１年中的长江淮河流域夏季旱涝各１０年，对它们前期的中高纬大型环流形势，低纬环流特征，垂直环流强弱，热带海洋状况等进行了对比诊断分析，其结果如下：长江淮河流域夏季旱年前冬（１２—１—２月），欧亚中高纬呈经向型环流，东亚大槽较常年强且南伸，乌拉尔山及鄂霍次克海阻塞形势发展，寒潮活动频繁，东亚沿海中低纬冷涌活动强烈，至使该经度带上的跨赤道气流加强，而且使南海至菲律宾地区的对流活动趋于活跃。而涝年前冬则基本上为相反形势。本文的分析清晰地揭示了旱涝年前冬东亚冬季风环流存在着明显的差别，促使我们寻找冬夏季风活动的可能联系及物理机制。     

Evaluating the Tree Population Density and Its Impacts in CLM-DGVM

Vegetation population dynamics play an essential role in shaping the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems.However,large uncertainties remain in the parameterizations of population dynamics in current Dynamic Global Vegetation Models(DGVMs).In this study,the global distribution and probability density functions of tree population densities in the revised Community Land Model-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model(CLM-DGVM) were evaluated,and the impacts of population densities on ecosystem characteristics were investigated.The results showed that the model predicted unrealistically high population density with small individual size of tree PFTs(Plant Functional Types) in boreal forests,as well as peripheral areas of tropical and temperate forests.Such biases then led to the underestimation of forest carbon storage and incorrect carbon allocation among plant leaves,stems and root pools,and hence predicted shorter time scales for the building/recovering of mature forests.These results imply that further improvements in the parameterizations of population dynamics in the model are needed in order for the model to correctly represent the response of ecosystems to climate change.     

基于GWR模型的中国中东部降水与海拔高度关系特征分析

利用中国国家级地面气象站逐时降水资料,采用地理加权回归(Geographically Weighted Regression,GWR)模型系统分析了中国中东部暖季降水与海拔高度的关系,并将二者关系作为一种客观标准,评估了ECMWF-IFS模式对2017年暖季降水的预报能力。主要结论如下:(1)总体来看,中国中东部降水频率(强度)随海拔高度升高而增加(减小),二者在不同地区的贡献程度不同导致降水量与海拔高度关系的区域差异显著。(2)通过对比午后短时和夜间长时降水事件与海拔高度关系的差异,发现午后短时降水事件的降水量主要随海拔高度升高而增加,且以降水频率与海拔高度关系的贡献为主。而夜间长时降水事件的降水量与海拔高度关系的区域一致性较差。相较于午后短时降水事件,夜间长时降水事件中有更多站点表现出降水量随海拔高度升高而减小的特征,在大地形周边陡峭地形处的站点所表现出的此种差异较东部孤立地形处更加显著。(3)根据ECMWF-IFS模式的评估结果,模式能够较好地刻画出中国中东部2017年暖季降水气候态的空间分布特征,且与观测具有较大的空间相关系数。但从降水与海拔高度关系来看,观测与模式的空间相关性偏弱。此外,模式能够表现出降水强度(频率)主要随海拔高度升高而减小(增加)的特征,但绝大多数站点在模式中的降水强度(频率)与海拔高度的负(正)回归关系要弱(强)于观测结果。     

腾冲-梁河地区锡铜铅锌稀有多金属成矿模式

腾冲-梁河地区Sn、Cu、Pb、Zn等元素成矿规律明显,找矿标志清楚。由东往西划分为四个次级成矿带,各具有不同矿产组合或典型矿床。根据成矿地质条件、矿产分布特征、控矿因素和找矿标志等,归纳5种成矿模式。初步建立该区矿床找矿模型,为今后矿产预测奠定基础。