Democracy,electoral systems and emissions: explaining when and why democratization promotes mitigation

Does democratization help countries mitigate climate change? On the one hand, by increasing the value placed on quality of life, creating more opportunity for environmental actors to influence policymaking and holding elected politicians accountable, an increase in democratic institution and process should promote emissions reduction. On the other hand, the desire to safeguard individual freedom presumably brings with it an aversion to intervene in lifestyle and market decisions, thereby raising the risk of climate inaction. This outcome is further encouraged by the political need to balance (conflicting) environmental and energy interests.

This article evaluates the thesis that democratization promotes mitigation in light of national emissions levels from 1990 to 2012. Using data from the Freedom House, Polity IV and V-Dem indices, World Bank World Development Indicators and the World Resources Institute Climate Data Explorer it conducts a large-N investigation of the emissions levels of 147 countries. Although several quantitative studies have found that domestic political regimes affect emissions levels, this article goes beyond existing research by building a more sophisticated – multilevel- research design to determine whether democracy: (a) continues to be an important driver of emissions when country-level clustering is accounted for and (b) has uniform effects across countries. The results indicate that, even after controlling for country-level clustering and holding constant the other confounding factors, democracy is indeed a significant driver. More strikingly, they reveal that while democracies tend to have lower emissions than non-democracies, democratization spells within the same country do not have the same kind of inhibitory effects as they do between countries. This article also finds tentative evidence that the type of electoral system plays a critical role in shaping the effect of democratization on individual countries.

Key policy insights

• Democracies tend to perform better in terms of emission levels than non-democracies.

• Democratization has non-uniform effects across different countries, with the type of electoral system playing a key role in determining the effect that democratization has on national emissions.

• Further research is needed to develop our understanding of how the political context influences emissions, especially with regard to the influence of pro and anti-decarbonisation actors.

     

高温高压下超临界二氧化碳作用对花岗岩力学性质影响的试验研究

为了研究二氧化碳基增强型地热系统核心及邻近区域中超临界二氧化碳(ScCO₂)作用对岩石力学性能的影响,设计了纯ScCO₂与干燥花岗岩作用,ScCO₂、水蒸气与干燥花岗岩作用,ScCO₂与在水中浸泡了24 h后的花岗岩作用3种试验条件,每种试验条件下均开展了210、240、270℃温度下的试验。对ScCO₂作用后的岩样以及一个未经处理的对比样先后开展纵波波速测试以及单轴压缩试验,获得了岩石的纵波波速、单轴抗压强度以及弹性模量。纵波波速试验结果表明,在上述3种试验条件下,花岗岩样的波速会都会发生一定程度的降低。单轴压缩试验结果表明,ScCO₂作用后的岩石单轴抗压强度及弹性模量都几乎没有受到影响,但是从破坏模式看,未经处理的岩石以张拉破坏为主,处理后的岩石以剪切破坏为主,并且随着温度的升高剪切破坏越明显。试验结果说明,在不存在水或者仅有微量水存在的情况下,ScCO₂的作用对岩石产生轻微损伤,岩样的刚性减弱、塑性增强,导致其纵波波速有少量的下...     

强边底水油藏特高含水期CO2吞吐差异挖潜技术研究

冀东油田浅层强边底水油藏已整体进入特高含水开发阶段,剩余油高度分散、含油饱和度不均,不同油井CO₂吞吐效果差异大,难以实现油藏整体高效开发。考虑到油藏含油饱和度不同,差异设计CO₂吞吐段塞组合及开发政策,改善CO₂吞吐开发效果是十分必要的。利用二维物理模拟及油藏数值模拟,研究不同CO₂吞吐方式控水增油机理,定量评价不同CO₂吞吐方式适应含油饱和度界限,建立不同含油饱和度下吞吐注采参数差异化设计图版。研究结果表明:剩余油饱和度介于0.47~0.50之间时,CO₂吞吐技术经济综合效果最优;剩余油饱和度介于0.43~0.47之间时,CO₂+堵剂吞吐方式最优;剩余油饱和度介于0.375~0.430之间时,CO₂+表活剂+堵剂吞吐方式最佳。上述研究成果对特高含水油藏CO₂吞吐差异设计精准挖潜剩余油,实现油藏整体高效开发具有重要意义。     

天然裂缝复杂程度对致密储层破裂特征的影响

地层内部总存在孔隙、裂隙、层理、裂缝、断层等结构特征从而体现为地层地质非均质性,并在人工注采过程中发生不同尺度的破裂而体现为跨尺度的裂缝时空延展特征和致裂机理。以致密油为代表的非常规油气藏开采开发在我国油气产能中占比越来越大,并往往利用水力压裂储层改造技术产生人工裂缝以增强油气渗流而实现其规模经济开发;同时,这类低渗透油气藏亦是CO₂压裂、注入和封存的重要对象。文章基于真三轴大型物理模型水力压裂实验和工程尺度下水力压裂微地震监测结果,通过不同尺度裂缝/裂隙活动所致声发射和微地震事件的时空展布研究岩体多尺度裂缝的破裂特征。研究表明,无论是相对稳定的真三轴水力压裂,还是实际地质工程尺度下的水力压裂微,岩石原生裂缝、裂隙分布趋势和方位对裂缝扩展具有主控作用。     

CO2纯度对咸水层碳封存过程中残余水的影响

CO₂在地下深部咸水含水层的封存过程中,岩石孔隙内形成的残余水对CO₂可注入性、封存量及安全性都有负面影响,因此深入探究各因素影响下残余水的形成演化具有重要意义。文章利用取自鄂尔多斯盆地深部储层的天然岩心,在40℃和8 MPa的实验条件下利用3种纯度的CO₂(99.999%CO₂、75%CO₂+25%N₂以及50%CO₂+25%N₂)进行饱水岩心驱替实验,以探究CO₂纯度对残余水的影响。实验表明,在3种CO₂纯度下的岩心驱替实验中,达到突破点和排水终点所需时间排序均为：99.999%CO₂<75%CO₂+25%N₂<50%CO₂+50%N₂;不可再降残余水饱和度大小排序为：99.999%CO₂<75%CO₂     

Chronostratigraphic framework and depositional environments in the organic‐rich,mudstone‐dominated Eagle Ford Group,Texas, USA

Since the beginning of the century, several authors have hypothesized and documented the presence of bottom currents during the deposition of mudstones, including mudstones rich in organic matter, challenging the assumption that persistent low‐energy conditions are necessary prerequisites for deposition of such sediments. More processes responsible for transport and deposition of mudstones mean also more processes acting contemporaneously in different parts of a basin. Without a precise and robust chronostratigraphic framework, however, it is not possible to characterize these differences. The new data reported here provide a profoundly different understanding of the controls on sedimentation in distal continental shelf platforms. To enhance the understanding of the different coeval environments of deposition coexisting in a muddy system, the Upper Cretaceous Eagle Ford Group, deposited on the Comanche carbonate platform, has been investigated by integrating sedimentology, mineralogy, geochemistry and palaeoecology, and creating age models in different physiographic sectors using biostratigraphy and geochronology. Data from two cores and 41 outcrops were analysed with a telescopic approach, from grain scale to basin scale. Nine temporal stages over a ca 8 Myr interval (ca 98 to 90 Ma) were defined in an area that spans 75 000 km². Finally, the different environments of deposition recorded within each of the nine stages were interpreted. The construction of the chronostratigraphic framework also allowed: measuring the duration of a basin‐wide gradational increase in energy in the water column (ca 1 Myr) and a hiatus confined into the shallower water sector (ca 2 Myr); determining the mean eruption frequency of volcanoes (ca 9 kyr); and the time of inundation of the Western Interior Seaway (97·5 to 97·1 Ma). The context, the outcrops–cores–logs correlations, the large data set (Appendix  S1 ), the high‐precision and well‐calibrated constraints represent an unprecedented contribution for future regional facies models of organic‐rich units and for improvements of key aspects in the industry of unconventional resources.     

Did the Turonian–Coniacian plume pulse trigger subduction initiation in the Northern Caribbean? Constraints from 40Ar/39Ar dating of the Moa-Baracoa metamorphic sole (eastern Cuba)

The Güira de Jauco metamorphic sole, below the Moa-Baracoa ophiolite (eastern Cuba), contains strongly deformed amphibolites formed at peak metamorphic conditions of 650–660°C, approximately 8.6 kbar (~30 km depth). The geochemistry, based on immobile elements of the amphibolites, suggests oceanic lithosphere protholiths with a variable subduction component in a supra-subduction zone environment. The geochemical similarity and tectonic relations among the amphibolites and the basic rocks from the overlying ophiolite suggest a similar origin and protholith. New hornblende ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar cooling ages of 77–81 Ma obtained for the amphibolites agree with this hypothesis, and indicate formation and cooling/exhumation of the sole in Late Cretaceous times. The cooling ages, geochemical evidence for a back-arc setting of formation of the mafic protoliths, and regional geology of the region allow proposal of the inception of a new SW-dipping subduction zone in the back-arc region of the northern Caribbean arc during the Late Cretaceous (ca. 90–85 Ma). Subduction inception was almost synchronous with the main plume pulse of the Caribbean–Colombian Oceanic Plateau (92–88 Ma) and occurred around 15 million years before arc-continent collision (75 Ma–Eocene) at the northern leading edge of the Caribbean plate. This chronological framework suggests a plate reorganization process in the region triggered by the Caribbean–Colombian mantle plume.     

A SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS STUDY ON THE ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE OBSERVED BY GOSAT SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING

The variation of the atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentration plays an important role in global climate and agriculture. We analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of CO2 in the China region and around the globe with the CO2 column mixing ratios observed by the Japanese GOSAT satellite (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite). In order to make sure that the accuracy of the CO2 data retrieved by the satellite meets the needs of the climate characteristics analyses, we ran a validation on the CO2 column mixing ratios retrieved by the satellite against the ground-based TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network) observation data. The result shows that the two sets of data have a correlation coefficient of higher than 0.7, and a bias of within 2.2 ppmv. Therefore, the GOSAT CO2 data can be used for the climate characteristics analysis of global CO2. Our analysis on the spatial-temporal characteristics of the CO2 column mixing ratios observed during the period of June 2009 through January 2014 proved that, with the impact of the natural emission of near ground CO2 and human activities, the global CO2 concentration has a significant latitudinal characteristics with its highest level averaging 390 ppmv in the 0-40oN latitudinal zone in the Northern Hemisphere, and 387 ppmv in the Southern Hemisphere. China has a relatively higher CO2 concentration with the highest level exceeding 398 ppmv, and the eastern area higher than the western area. The variation of global CO2 concentration shows a seasonal pattern, i.e. the CO2 concentration reaches its highest in spring in the Northern Hemisphere averaging more than 392 ppmv, second highest in winter, and lowest in summer averaging less than 387 ppmv. It fluctuates the most in the Northern Hemisphere with an average concentration of 392.5 ppmv in April, and 385.5 ppmv in July. While in the Southern Hemisphere, the seasonal fluctuation is smaller with the highest concentration occurring in July. Over the recent years, the global CO2 concentration has shown an elevating trend with an average annual increase rate of 1.58 ppmv per year. It is a challenge that the human kind has to face to slow down the increase of the CO2 concentration.     

Monitoring Carbon Dioxide from Space:Retrieval Algorithm and Flux Inversion Based on GOSAT Data and Using CarbonTracker-China

Monitoring atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_2) from space-borne state-of-the-art hyperspectral instruments can provide a high precision global dataset to improve carbon flux estimation and reduce the uncertainty of climate projection. Here, we introduce a carbon flux inversion system for estimating carbon flux with satellite measurements under the support of "The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences—Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues". The carbon flux inversion system is composed of two separate parts: the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Carbon Dioxide Retrieval Algorithm for Satellite Remote Sensing(IAPCAS), and Carbon Tracker-China(CT-China), developed at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite(GOSAT) measurements are used in the carbon flux inversion experiment. To improve the quality of the IAPCAS-GOSAT retrieval, we have developed a post-screening and bias correction method, resulting in 25%–30% of the data remaining after quality control. Based on these data, the seasonal variation of XCO_2(column-averaged CO_2dry-air mole fraction) is studied, and a strong relation with vegetation cover and population is identified. Then, the IAPCAS-GOSAT XCO_2 product is used in carbon flux estimation by CT-China. The net ecosystem CO_2 exchange is-0.34 Pg C yr~(-1)(±0.08 Pg C yr~(-1)), with a large error reduction of 84%, which is a significant improvement on the error reduction when compared with in situ-only inversion.     

Numerical investigation of an oceanic resonant regime induced by hurricane winds

The oceanic mixed layer (OML) response to an idealized hurricane with different propagation speeds is investigated using a two-layer reduced gravity ocean model. First, the model performances are examined with respect to available observations relative to Hurricane Frances (2004). Then, 11 idealized simulations are performed with a Holland (Mon Weather Rev 108(8):1212–1218, 1980) symmetric wind profile as surface forcing with storm propagation speeds ranging from 2 to 12 m s⁻¹. By varying this parameter, the phasing between atmospheric and oceanic scales is modified. Consequently, it leads to different momentum exchanges between the hurricane and the OML and to various oceanic responses. The present study determines how OML momentum and heat budgets depend on this parameter. The kinetic energy flux due to surface wind stress is found to strongly depend on the propagation speed and on the cross-track distance from the hurricane center. A resonant regime between surface winds and near-inertial currents is clearly identified. This regime maximizes locally the energy flux into the OML. For fast-moving hurricanes (>6 m s⁻¹), the ratio of kinetic energy converted into turbulence depends only on the wind stress energy input. For slow-moving hurricanes (<6 m s⁻¹), the upwelling induced by current divergence enhances this conversion by shallowing the OML depth. Regarding the thermodynamic response, two regimes are identified with respect to the propagation speed. For slow-moving hurricanes, the upwelling combined with a sharp temperature gradient at the OML base formed in the leading part of the storm maximizes the oceanic heat loss. For fast propagation speeds, the resonance mechanism sets up the cold wake on the right side of the hurricane track. These results suggest that the propagation speed is a parameter as important as the surface wind speed to accurately describe the oceanic response to a moving hurricane.