综合多信息进行地震约束储层随机建模——以准噶尔盆地庄1井区J1S2^2砂组为例

针对地震约束储层随机建模中地震反演波阻抗数据体与岩相概率关系差的问题,提出综合多信息、逐级约束、多级建模的思路方法。首先以地震反演数据体约束建立地球物理特征曲线随机参数场,再以每一个地球物理特征曲线参数场为约束建立相模型,最后以优选的相模型和地球物理特征曲线参数场为约束进行储层参数建模。该方法在井距较大的开发前期评价阶段具有较好的应用效果。     

利用南极走航观测评估卫星遥感海表面温度

利用1989-2005年间南极走航观测的海表面温度,对目前3个主要的卫星反演的SST产品AVHRR(Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer),TMI(TRMM Microwave Imager)和AMSR-E(Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System)进行了较为系统的评估,并着重检验了它们在南大洋的准确性.结果表明,AVHRR SST比观测数据偏冷,白天的偏差为-0.12℃,夜晚的偏差为-0.04℃,而且南大洋的冷偏差更为显著.TMI SST比观测数据明显偏暖,白天的偏差为0.48℃,夜晚的偏差为0.57℃,其温差ΔT受37GHz风速影响,在强风速(>6m/s)下这种影响仍然存在.AMSR-ESST比观测数据偏暖,白天的偏差为0.34℃,夜晚的偏差为0.27℃,而且南大洋的暖偏差相对较大.AMSR-E SST温差受水汽影响,并在南大洋随着水汽的增加而增加.通过进一步比较微波(AMSR-E和TMI)和红外(AVHRR)遥感的SST在2004年北半球冬季(即南半球夏季)的差别,发现微波遥感在热带(15°S-15°N)和南大洋区域(45°S以南)比红外遥感偏暖,而且在南大洋区域的偏差相对较大,相反在北半球中纬度区域(15°~40°N)偏冷.AMSR-E与AVHRR SST的温差,从白天到夜晚有减小的趋势,而TMI与AVHRR SST的温差无明显的变化.     

极限波浪运动特性的非线性数值模拟

利用时域高阶边界元方法建立了模拟极限波浪运动的完全非线性数值模型,其中自由水面满足完全非线性自由水面条件.采用半混合欧拉-拉格朗日方法追踪流体瞬时水面,运用四阶Runge-Kutta方法更新下一时间步的波面和速度势,同时应用镜像格林函数消除水槽两个侧面和底面上的积分.研究中利用波浪聚焦的方法产生极限波浪,并且在水槽中开展了物理模型实验,将测点试验数据与数值结果进行了对比,两者吻合得很好.对极限波浪运动的非线性和流域内速度分布进行了研究.     

Enhanced concentrations of dissolved gaseous mercury in the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean

During an almost three months long expedition in the Arctic Ocean, the Beringia 2005, dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM) was measured continuously in the surface water. The DGM concentration was measured using an equilibrium system, i.e. the DGM in the water phase equilibrated with a stream of gas and the gas was thereafter analysed with respect to its mercury content. The DGM concentrations were calculated using the following equation, DGM = Hg_eq / k_H' where Hg_eq is the equilibrated concentration of elemental mercury in the gas phase and k_H' is the dimensionless Henry's law constant at desired temperature and salinity. During the expedition several features were observed. For example, enhanced DGM concentration was measured underneath the ice which may indicate that the sea ice acted as a barrier for evasion of mercury from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. Furthermore, elevated DGM concentrations were observed in water that might have originated from river discharge. The gas-exchange of mercury between the ocean and the atmosphere was calculated in the open water and both deposition and evasion were observed. The measurements showed significantly enhanced DGM concentrations, compared to more southern latitudes.     

Econometric analysis of the ship demolition market

The topic of ship recycling has obtained considerable attention during the last two decades for a variety of reasons with the likelihood of the adoption of a new international convention under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This study applies econometric modeling to a unique data set to provide insight into the dynamics of the ship recycling market. The data set contains information on 51,112 ships over 100 gt and includes 748,621 events over a period of 29 years. The analysis confirms a negative relationship of earnings and a positive relationship of scrap prices for all locations while Bangladesh seems to be more sensitive to changes in earnings than the other locations and more likely demolishes larger and older vessels. The results for flag and ownership vary across scrapping locations with Malta and Cyprus indicating potential importance from a registry perspective. The overall safety profile of a vessel seems to be less important towards the probability of a ship being scrapped. Possible implementation of the convention at EU level will mostly likely affect Turkey while non-ratification of one of the major flags will most likely affect China or Bangladesh.     

A review of the ocean science and technology partnership between US and Korea

In 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Integrated Coastal and Ocean Resources Scientific and Technical Arrangement was signed to pursue scientific and technical cooperation in integrated coastal and ocean resources management in the mutual interest of the participants. Over the last 6 years, the cooperation has been very beneficial, particularly for advancing marine science and management programs in Korea, such as Deep Sea Aquaculture, Sea Grant College Program, Marine Protected Areas, and Ocean Observations. The benefits to NOAA from the cooperation include Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, ocean and coastal observations, GEOSS program, and Global Program of Action. Also the cooperation has spillover effects on other ocean science and technological arrangement between US and Korea. This article reviews purpose, obstacles, and achievement of the cooperation and suggests recommendations for the future steps.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

44 years hindcast of sea level in the Atlantic Coast of Europe

The sea level of Northeast Atlantic Ocean is calculated for the period between 1958 and 2001 using a state-of-the-art barotropic model with a grid size of 10′ × 15′ (long × lat). The model includes astronomic effects, considering seven components of the tide, and the meteorological effects of wind and atmospheric pressure, allowing obtaining the astronomic tide, the atmospheric residuals and the non-linear addition of both components of sea level.