Models-3空气质量模式对兰州市污染物输送的模拟

较详细地介绍了美国环保总局的第三代空气质量模式系统Models-3的特点,并且针对兰州市冬季采暖期污染严重的特点,选取2002年12月份的个例,将兰州市最新的大气污染源资料加入模式中．对模式进行调试并检验了该模式对兰州污染的模拟性能。从模式对SO2,NO2和O3等几种大气污染物浓度的模拟结果与监测资料对比分析,表明该模式系统较好地模拟出了SO2,NO2的空间分布格局,模拟结果与监测结果比较吻合,而且模式模拟的污染物浓度场比较均匀;模式模拟的O3的日变化规律与资料分析结论基本一致,也符合O3的生成机理。因此该模式系统对于复杂地形条件下的城市污染物输送具有一定的模拟能力。     

半干旱区植被覆盖度对边界层气候热力影响的数值模拟

在陆－气相互作用的中小尺度系统研究中，水平非均匀下垫面的强迫作用是主要的物理过程。本文利用能量闭合二维陆面过程与大气边界层耦合模式，研究了我国西北半干旱地区（３８°Ｎ，１０５°Ｅ）夏季下垫面物理特征的变化对区域边界层气候的影响。结果表明：土壤湿度、植被覆盖度对局地环流和区域边界层气候的形成起着决定性的作用。模拟结果揭示了在半干旱地区大面积植树造林、提高植被覆盖度，可涵养土壤水分，改善局地生态环境，是人工持续改造干旱、半干旱荒漠地区局地气候的重要途径。     

A numerical study of the behavior of fully grouted rockbolts under dynamic loading

The widespread preference for rockbolts in providing adequate rock stability in underground mines and man-made cavities make it necessary to obtain a better understanding of the response of these support systems. It is widely accepted that the fully grouted rockbolts provide better roof stability in areas of very poor roof condition which may be caused by high ground stress conditions. There is little information about the in situ behavior of these systems especially under dynamic loading. Hence, to study the behavior of fully grouted rockbolts under dynamic loading, a numerical modeling study was conducted using the FLAC^3D code. In this study the behavior of three types of fully grouted rockbolts were compared with each other including rockbolts with and without head plate and a yielding type one. The results of analyses indicated that under dynamic loading the fully grouted rockbolts without the head plate are incapable of controlling the rock mass movement. Although fully grouted rockbolts with head plate damp a considerable amount of the dynamic energy through friction as these bolts slide within the grout, but the elongation of the rockbolt is not possible due to the rapid breakage of the rockbolt–grout interface. Yielding rockbolts are the best choice for the absorption of the dynamic stress wave and controlling of the rock mass movement. The obtained results show that the optimal design of yielding rockbolt should be in such a way that after dynamic loading, anchoring part of bolt has a limited movement to prevent stress concentration in the shaft of rockbolt and its breakage.     

跨断层水泥管试验的有限元分析

在考虑管道的材料非线性和几何非线性、管土相互作用的非线性和管道接口非线性的基础上,建立了由管体梁单元、三向土弹簧单元和接口单元组成的埋地非连续管道在断层位移作用下的有限元模型,并以美国密歇根大学Junhee等(2010)所做的跨断层水泥管试验为原型进行了模拟分析。有限元结果给出的水泥管最终变形、接口转角、接口位移与实验结果基本一致,表明本文提出的跨断层埋地非连续管道抗震计算的有限元分析方法具有一定的合理性。有限元结果和试验结果都表明,在逆冲断层作用下,水泥管的破坏主要是因为在管道接口处的轴向压力和弯矩的耦合作用,在断层附近的管道接口承受了较大的转动和压缩位移。本文所提出的分析方法可推广到埋地非连续管道在其它永久地面变形作用下的有限元分析。     

Tectonic evolution of the Lachlan Fold Belt, southeastern Australia: constraints from coupled numerical models of crustal deformation and surface erosion driven by subduction of the underlying mantle

We have used a coupled thermo-mechanical finite-element (FE) model of crustal deformation driven by mantle/oceanic subduction to demonstrate that the tectonic evolution of the Lachlan Fold Belt (LFB) during the Mid-Palaeozoic (Late Ordovician to Early Carboniferous) can be linked to continuous subduction along a single subduction zone. This contrasts with most models proposed to date which assume that separate subduction zones were active beneath the western, central and eastern sections of the Lachlan Orogen. We demonstrate how the existing data on the structural, volcanic and erosional evolution of the Lachlan Fold Belt can be accounted for by our model. We focus particularly on the timing of fault movement in the various sectors of the orogen. We demonstrate that the presence of the weak basal decollement on which most of the Lachlan Fold Belt is constructed effectively decouples crustal structures from those in the underlying mantle. The patterns of faulting in the upper crust appears therefore to be controlled by lateral strength contrasts inherited from previous orogenic events rather than the location of one or several subduction zones. The model also predicts that the uplift and deep exhumation of the Wagga-Omeo Metamorphic Belt (WOMB) is associated with the advection of this terrane above the subduction point and is the only tectonic event that gives us direct constraints on the location of the subduction zone. We also discuss the implications of our model for the nature of the basement underlying the present-day orogen.     

3D shear-wave velocity structure of the Eifel plume, Germany

The Quaternary Eifel volcanic fields, situated on the Rhenish Massif in Germany, are the focus of a major interdisciplinary project. The aim is a detailed study of the crustal and mantle structure of the intraplate volcanic fields and their deep origin. Recent results from a teleseismic P-wave tomography study reveal a deep low-velocity structure which we infer to be a plume in the upper mantle underneath the volcanic area [J.R.R. Ritter et al., Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 186 (2001) 7-14]. Here we present a travel-time investigation of 5038 teleseismic shear-wave arrivals in the same region. First, the transverse (T) and radial (R) component travel-time residuals are treated separately to identify possible effects of seismic anisotropy. A comparison of 2044 T- and 2994 R-component residuals demonstrates that anisotropy does not cause any first-order travel-time effects. The data sets reveal a deep-seated low-velocity anomaly beneath the volcanic region, causing a delay for teleseismic shear waves of about 3 s. Using 3773 combined R- and T-component residuals, an isotropic non-linear inversion is calculated. The tomographic images reveal a prominent S-wave velocity reduction in the upper mantle underneath the Eifel region. The anomaly extends down to at least 400 km depth. The velocity contrast to the surrounding mantle is depth-dependent (from −5% at 31-100 km depth to at least −1% at 400 km depth). At about 170-240 km depth the anomaly is nearly absent. The resolution of the data is sufficient to recover the described features, however the anomaly in the lower asthenosphere is underestimated due to smearing and damping. The main anomaly is similar to the P-wave model except the latter lacks the ‘hole’ near 200 km depth, and both are consistent with an upper mantle plume structure. For plausible anhydrous plume material in the uppermost 100 km of the mantle, an excess temperature as great as 200-300 K is estimated from the seismic anomaly. However, 1% partial melt reduces the required temperature anomaly to about 100 K. The temperature anomaly associated with the deeper part of the plume (250 to about 450 km depth) is at least 70 K. However, this estimate is quite uncertain, because the amplitude of the shear-wave anomaly may be larger than the modelled one. Another possibility is water in the upwelling material. The gap at 170-240 km depth could arise from an increase of the shear modulus caused by dehydration processes which would not affect P-wave velocities as much. An interaction of temperature and compositional variations, including melt and possibly water, makes it difficult to differentiate quantitatively between the causes of the deep-seated low-velocity anomaly.     

南海各月月平均海流场的数值模拟

本文用一个区域三维、自由表面、斜压海洋模式对南海全年各月的三维平均流场进行了数值模拟，模拟得到的环境特征与己有的实测资料十分相近，这表明该模拟结果是可信的，该数值模拟也是成功的。     

模块化模糊神经网络的数值预报产品释用预报研究

综合应用预报量自身时间序列的拓展,数值预报产品和模块化模糊神经网络方法,进行了一种新的数值预报产品释用预报研究。将这种新方法与常规的数值预报产品完全预报(PP)方法进行了对比试验。结果表明,这种模块化模糊神经网络数值预报产品释用预报方法比PP预报方法的预报精度显著提高。并且,通过对预报模型“过拟合”现象的研究发现,这种模块化模糊神经网络的数值预报产品释用预报模型具有很好的泛化性能。     

西太平洋副热带高压中期变化的数值试验 Ⅰ.青藏高原热源的作用

用一个全球谱模式作数值试验研究了１９７９年６月中旬一次西太平洋副热带高压西伸北进的中期天气过程中青藏高原热源的作用。结果表明：高原的热力作用主要表现在对副高北侧锋区的形成、锋区瓣强度以及与锋区对应的对流层中上层西风急流的强度有较大的影响,有高原热力作用时,锋眍和西风流的强度都强,反之则很弱;另外还发现青藏高原感热和潜热作用是相互依赖的,在一定的天气过程中,弧立起来讨论其各自的相对重要性不太合符实际