中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断

根据中国西北近500a旱涝等级资料，用Bernoulli试验等理论模式，对大旱年发生的概率特征进行了研究，得出大旱年发生的统计规律。在全球气候变暖的大背景下，给出了21世纪中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断结果。     

南海海平面高度年循环的特征

根据 ＴＯＰＥＸ／ ＰＯＳＥＩＤＯＮ－ＥＲＳ高度计提供的海平面高度异常资料和并行海洋气候模式（ＰＯＣＭ）模拟海平面高度资料，分析了南海海平面高度年循环特征。结果表明：ｌ月，３月和５月海平面高度的异常值分别与７月，９月，１１月的异常值相反。ｌ月（７月），深水海区与吕宋海峡的海平面高度为负（正）异常，在大部分陆架区和南海的西和南部，海平面高度为正（负）异常。在３月（９月），除海平面高度异常的量级已减少，且较小的ＳＳＨ正异常（负异常）出现在南海的中部以外，海平面高度异常的分布型与 １月（７月）类似； ＳＳＨ的年循环的最大振幅出现在吕宋岛的西北海域；风的季节变化是南海ＳＳＨ季节变化的主要原因。     

印度洋偶极子对大气环流和气候的影响

赤道印度洋SST的分析研究证实了偶极子型振荡的存在，它在9-11月较强而在1-4月较弱。若以海温西高东低为偶极子振荡正位相，以海温东高西低为负位相，则一般是正位相时振荡要强于负位相。印度洋偶极子也存在年际（主要周期为4－5年）和年代际（主要周期为25-30年）变化。分析研究表明，印度洋偶极子对亚洲季风活动有明显影响，因为亚洲地区对流层低层的风场，南亚高压和西太平洋副高强度都与印度洋偶极子有关。另外，印度洋偶极子还对北美和南印度洋（包括澳大利亚和南美）地区的大气环流和气流有影响。     

甘宁青地区强震孕育的深部电性和力学环境

以200多点次的大地电磁测深资料和6条人工地震测深剖面的资料为根据，结合重力测量和地热流观测资料，分析研究了甘肃、宁夏和青海地区的强震孕育的深部环境。认为强震孕育在增厚的低阻层的顶部，低速层的上方以及介质在横向上电性和力学性质均剧烈变化的环境之中。这些条件的实质是在地应力作用下纵、横向地层变形不一致，在这不协调之处极有利于应力集中。     

中国西北部分地区大地电磁测点布设条件探讨

根据多年来在中国西北地区进行大地电磁测深工作的实践，从仪器、野外地形和干扰因素3个方面探讨了测点的布设条件。对仪器的布设方式进行了分析；分析了山区和盆地大地电磁测深资料的差异，提出了测点布设应注意的问题；给出了2个测点受电磁干扰的具体资料，和避开干扰源重新选择测点的观测效果。认为仪器抗干扰能力是有限度,如果干扰信号和大地电磁频谱相接近，则很难被仪器的抗干扰能力所抑制。     

论西北地区生态环境建设问题与战略

分析评价了西北地区生态环境的基本现状，指出了影响生态环境改善的最大制约因素。在反思了过去生态环境建设的教训的基础上，提出了西北地区生态环境建设的目标。分析了当前大规模的生态环境建设中面临的亟待研究和解决的有关问题，并指出对这些问题的有效解决有助于构建生态建设的科学和社会支撑体系。最后，提出了生态建设和保护的若干对策建议。     

海潮对倾斜仪及伸缩仪观测的影响

利用Farrell模式，结合烟台海洋洁潮汐，估算了海潮对烟台地倾斜、伸缩仪观测影响的量值。有了这一数据，就可以根据烟台的海潮观测资料对地倾斜、伸缩仪观测资料进行海潮影响的改正。     

High precision glacial–interglacial benthic foraminiferal Sr/Ca records from the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea

Glacial–interglacial variation in the marine Sr/Ca ratio has important implications for coral Sr thermometry [J.W. Beck et al., Science 257 (1992) 644–647]. A possible variation of 1–3% was proposed based on ocean models [H.M. Stoll and D.P. Schrag, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 62 (1998) 1107–1118]. Subsequently, studies have used fossil foraminifera to test this prediction [P.A. Martin et al., Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 1 (1999); H.M. Stoll et al., Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 63 (1999) 3535–3547; H. Elderfield et al., Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 1 (2000)]. But whether some component of foraminiferal Sr/Ca variation can be uniquely ascribed to seawater Sr variation is still not clear. To address this question, we developed cleaning and analysis techniques and measured Sr/Ca ratios on individual shells of the modern benthic foraminifer Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi. We showed that different size shells have different Sr/Ca ratios; however, samples with shell sizes of 355–500 μm appear to have normally distributed Sr/Ca ratios (1σ=1.8%). For multi-shell measurements (with estimated errors of 0.12–0.39%), the ratio varied by as much as 7.2±0.5% during the last glaciation for two Caribbean records at the same site and by 3.7±0.5% over the past 40,000 yr for one record from the Sierra Leone Rise in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. The two Caribbean records are very similar indicating that the behavior of shell Sr uptake was identical locally and that the shell Sr/Ca ratio faithfully reflects the local environment. The Atlantic record differs from the Caribbean records by as much as several percent. Thus, the foraminiferal Sr/Ca changes cannot be solely due to changes in seawater Sr/Ca unless the glacial deep ocean had spatial variation in Sr/Ca well in excess of the modern ocean. Certain similarities between the three records do exist. Notably, the rate of change of Sr/Ca is similar between 9 and 0 ka (−0.25%/kyr) and between 25 and 16 ka (+0.16%/kyr). This suggests that during these intervals, benthic foraminiferal Sr/Ca was affected by similar large-scale variables. One of these variables may be the average marine Sr/Ca ratio; however, comparison with model predictions [H.M. Stoll and D.P. Schrag, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 62 (1998) 1107–1118] suggests other factors must also be considered. The discrepancies between the two sites may be related to the different water mass histories for the Caribbean and eastern Atlantic. Our results suggest that variation of the seawater Sr budget only partially contributed to C. wuellerstorfi Sr/Ca records, while other significant factors still need to be quantified. At present we cannot confidently determine past seawater Sr/Ca variation from our foraminiferal records.     

On the meridional circulation and balance of momentum in the Southern Ocean of POP

 The circulation of the Southern Ocean is studied in the eddy-resolving model POP (Parallel Ocean Program) by an analysis of zonally integrated balances. The TEM formalism (Transformed Eulerian Mean) is extended to include topography and continental boundaries, thus deviations from a zonally integrated state involve transient and standing eddies. The meridional circulation is presented in terms of the Eulerian, eddy-induced, and residual streamfunctions. It is shown that the splitting of the meridional circulation into Ekman and geostrophic transports and the component induced by subgrid and Reynolds stresses is identical to a particular form of the zonally integrated balance of zonal momentum. In this balance, the eddy-induced streamfunctions represent the interfacial form stresses by transient and standing eddies and the residual streamfunction represents the acceleration of the zonal current by density fluxes in a zonally integrated frame. The latter acceleration term is directly related to the surface flux of density and interior fluxes due to the resolved and unresolved eddies. The eddy-induced circulation is extremely vigorous in POP. In the upper ocean a shallow circulation, reversed in comparison to the Deacon cell and mainly due to standing eddies, appears to the north of Drake Passage latitudes, and in the Drake Passage belt of latitudes a deep-reaching cell is induced by transient eddies. In the resulting residual circulation the Deacon cell is largely cancelled and the residual advection of the zonal mean potential density is balanced by diapycnal eddy and subgrid fluxes which are strong in the upper few hundred meters but small in the ocean interior. The balance of zonal momentum is consistent with other eddy-resolving models; a new aspect is the clear identification of density effects in the zonally integrated balance. We show that the wind stress and the stress induced by the residual circulation drive the eastward current, whereas both eddy species result in a braking. Finally, we extend the Johnson–Bryden model of zonal transport to incorporate all relevant terms from the zonal momentum balance. It is shown that wind stress and induction by the residual circulation carry an eastward transport while bottom form stress and the stress induced by standing eddies yield westward components of transport. Received: 26 June 2001 / Accepted: 2 November 2001     

赣西北修水—永修地区滑脱构造的基本特征

赣西北修水-永修地区的盖层系统中具备多层次、多级别滑脱构造，本文重点阐述了该滑脱构造的基本特征，并对其形成时代及形成了探讨，认为该区早期属于挤压体制，晚期则属于伸展状态下的重力滑脱体制，并提出印支-燕山期板块碰撞寺形差异及九岭山体不对称挤压是诱发滑脱构造形成的主要因素。