北冰洋海冰和海水变异对海洋生态系统的潜在影响

最近30年来,北冰洋海冰和海水发生了急剧变化:海冰覆盖面积减少、冰层变薄、水温升高、淡水输入增加、污染加剧,正威胁着现有与海冰关系密切的生态系统。预期随着变化的持续,与海冰相关的食物链将在部分海域消失并被较低纬度的海洋物种所取代、总初级生产力有望增加并为人类带来更多的渔获量、而北极熊和海象等以海冰作为栖息和捕食场所的大型哺乳动物的生存前景堪忧。今后人类将更为重视对北冰洋生态环境变化规律的认识并加以运用、关注北冰洋特有物种的命运并加以力所能及的保护、评估北冰洋生态系统的变化对人类社会经济的影响以期及早采取应对措施。数据积累是目前制约北极研究的最大障碍,但随着 SEARCH 等大型国际研究计划的实施,对北冰洋生态系统的监测和研究将更为系统和全面。     

Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.     

Spatialising the Melanesian Canarium industry: Understanding economic upgrading in an emerging industry among three Pacific small island states

This paper examines economic upgrading in the Canarium indicum (Canarium) nut industry in Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea. Canarium is a tree that is indigenous to Melanesia, and has been the subject of several commercialisation attempts since 1988. The paper assesses the outcomes to various actors in the Canarium supply chain from attempts to upgrade industry products and processes by: (1) increasing the available resource in suitable locations; (2) improving nut products and processing techniques; (3) increasing actors’ knowledge and supply chain coordination; and (4) establishing product standards. A two-phase data generation process was implemented. Document analysis and participant observations of industry workshops initiated a set of four economic upgrading interventions that were adaptively implemented. A second stage of workshops and 76 interviews enabled outcomes to be assessed at the project’s end. Findings suggest that a small number of urban-based entrepreneurs benefit and subsequently are lead actors in industry development, but at the expense of benefits being distributed to a larger, more spatially disparate group of smallholder and small commercial growers. These economic upgrading outcomes are circumscribed by core-periphery relations in Pacific small island states and the scale of industry in each country. Thus, spatial inequalities are reproduced through the emerging Canarium industries. We argue that different routes to industry development are required in each country. Development initiatives that capitalise on the benefits of micro-enterprise clusters, joint action and regional institutional arrangements are proposed to overcome the impediments imposed by the particular geographies of Pacific island states.     

西藏班公湖-怒江缝合带西段特提斯洋晚二叠世(Ca.252Ma)洋内俯冲的地球化学和年代学证据

多龙蛇绿混杂岩是班公湖-怒江蛇绿岩带的重要组成部分,位于西藏阿里地区改则县北西约120 km的多龙矿集区内,大地构造位置处于班公湖-怒江缝合带中西段,南羌塘板块南缘。多龙蛇绿混杂岩主要分布在多龙矿区中部及东北部。矿区中部蛇绿岩主要由辉长岩、辉绿(玢)岩、枕状玄武岩、气孔杏仁状玄武岩、玄武质岩屑凝灰岩及硅质岩等组成,东西向延伸约35 km,南北宽3~7 km,出露面积约180 km2;该蛇绿岩残片的组成单元(包括基性岩单元以及硅质岩单元等)多被构造肢解,整体表现为不规则透镜体,以构造岩片的形式断续分布于侏罗系次深海陆棚-盆地斜坡复陆碎屑岩-类复理石建造内的断层带中,构成典型的网结状构造。矿区东北部蛇绿岩主要由含铁斜方辉石橄榄蛇纹岩、玻基玄武岩、碳酸盐化角闪辉长岩、微纹层状硅质岩等组成,该蛇绿混杂岩带沿北西-南东向断裂展布,延伸约12 km,宽1~3 km,出露面积约30 km2;该蛇绿岩残片组成单元(包括超基性岩单元、基性岩单元以及硅质岩单元等)均呈构造岩片的形式产出在三叠系灰岩地层内的断层带中。     

Phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation and decadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon in the 20th century

This paper focuses on the relationship between the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and decadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in the twentieth century. The first transition occurred in the 1940s, with an enhanced SST in the North Pacific and reduced SST in the tropical eastern Pacific and South Indian Ocean. In agreement with these SST changes, a higher SLP was found in most parts of the Pacific, while a lower SLP was found in the North Pacific and most parts of the Indian Ocean. In this case, the EASM was largely enhanced with a southerly anomaly in the lower troposphere along the east coast of China. Correspondingly, there was less rainfall in the Yangtze River valley and more rainfall in northern and southern China. An opposite change was found when the PDO reversed its phase in the late 1970s. In the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific, however, the SST was enhanced in both the 1940s and 1970s. As a result, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) tended to extend westward with a larger magnitude in the 1970s. The major features were reasonably reproduced by an atmospheric general circulation model (IAP AGCM4.0) prescribed with observed SST and sea ice. On the other hand, the westward extension of the WPSH was exaggerated in the 1970s, while it was underestimated in the 1940s. Besides, the spatial pattern of the simulated summer rainfall in eastern China tended to shift southward compared with the observation.     

Impact of the Pacific–Japan Teleconnection Pattern on July Sea Fog over the Northwestern Pacific: Interannual Variations and Global Warming Effect

The northwestern Pacific(NWP) is a fog-prone area, especially the ocean east of the Kuril Islands. The present study analyzes how the Pacific–Japan(PJ) teleconnection pattern influences July sea fog in the fog-prone area using independent datasets. The covariation between the PJ index and sea fog frequency(SFF) index in July indicates a close correlation, with a coefficient of 0.62 exceeding the 99% confidence level. Composite analysis based on the PJ index, a case study, and model analysis based on GFDL-ESM2 M, show that in high PJ index years the convection over the east of the Philippines strengthens and then triggers a Rossby wave, which propagates northward to maintain an anticyclonic anomaly in the midlatitudes,indicating a northeastward shift of the NWP subtropical high. The anticyclonic anomaly facilitates the formation of relatively stable atmospheric stratification or even an inversion layer in the lower level of the troposphere, and strengthens the horizontal southerly moisture transportation from the tropical–subtropical oceans to the fog-prone area. On the other hand, a greater meridional SST gradient over the cold flank of the Kuroshio Extension, due to ocean downwelling, is produced by the anticyclonic wind stress anomaly. Both of these two aspects are favorable for the warm and humid air to cool, condense, and form fog droplets, when air masses cross the SST front. The opposite circumstances occur in low PJ index years, which are not conducive to the formation of sea fog. Finally, a multi-model ensemble mean projection reveals a prominent downward trend of the PJ index after the 2030 s, implying a possible decline of the SFF in this period.