A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina

A new real-time, event-triggered storm surge prediction system has been developed for the State of North Carolina to assist emergency managers, policy-makers and other government officials with evacuation planning, decision-making and resource deployment during tropical storm landfall and flood inundation events. The North Carolina Forecast System (NCFS) was designed and built to provide a rapid response assessment of hurricane threat, accomplished by driving a high-resolution, two-dimensional, depth-integrated version of the ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) coastal ocean model with winds from a synthetic asymmetric gradient wind vortex. These parametric winds, calculated at exact finite-element mesh node locations and directly coupled to the ocean model at every time step, are generated from National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast advisories the moment they are inserted into the real-time weather data stream, maximizing the number of hours of forecast utility. Tidal harmonic constituents are prescribed at the open water boundaries and applied as tidal potentials in the interior of the ocean model domain. A directional surface roughness parameterization that modulates the wind speed at a given location based on the types of land cover encountered upwind, a forest canopy sheltering effect, and a spatially varying distribution of Manning’s–n friction coefficient used for computing the bottom/channel bed friction are also included in the storm surge model. Comparisons of the simulated wind speeds and phases against their real meteorological counterparts, of model elevations against actual sea surface elevations measured by NOAA tide gauges along the NC coast, and of simulated depth-averaged current velocities against Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data, indicate that this new system produces remarkably realistic predictions of winds and storm surge.     

Influencing factors for formation of urban and rural spatial structure in metropolis fringe area—Taking Shuangliu County of Chengdu in China as a case

With rapid urbanization process, the pace of urban sprawl has been quickened and most metropolises have experienced expansions in leaps and bounds in suburbanization, which has greatly changed the urban and rural spatial structure of the metropolis fringe area. In this paper, Shuangliu County is taken as a case, since it is a typical fringe area of Chengdu Metropolis. Based on Landsat TM images of Chengdu City and Shuangliu County obtained in 1985, 2000 and 2004, characteristics of urban and rural spatial structure in Shuangliu County were analyzed, such as core-periphery spatial structure and some obvious integration trends. Then the influencing factors for the formation of urban and rural spatial structure were identified, including some natural, social, economic and political factors. According to the discussion of this paper, Shuangliu County is undergoing a key transition and reform period. Its formation of urban and rural spatial structure was affected not only by such common factors as the location, natural background, industrial transition, migration, etc., but also by some unique factors such as city planning and policy guidance, which played an important role in accelerating its uneven spatial structure. The understanding of the role of the influencing factors would be useful for carrying out spatial management and development planning of metropolis fringe area.     

Results of recent Pacific-Arctic ice-ocean modeling studies at the Naval Postgraduate School

Summary of results from a high - resolution pan - Arctic ice - ocean model are presented for the northern North Pacific, Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas. The main focus is on the mean circulation, communication from the Gulf of Alaska across the Bering Sea into the western Arctic Ocean and on mesoscale eddy activity within several important ecosystems. Model results from 1979 -2004 are compared to observations whenever possible. The high spatial model resolution at 1/12o （or -9 - km） in the horizontal and 45 levels in the vertical direction allows for representation of eddies with diameters as small as 36 km. However, we believe that upcoming new model integrations at even higher resolution will allow us to resolve even smaller eddies. This is especially important at the highest latitudes where the Rossby radius of deformation is as small as 10 km or less.     

第二次全国农业用地普查表的面积生成差异机制分析

第二次全国农业普查户表、村表与农业用地表的耕地面积差异,主要是由设计普查指标、普查时点、统计口径、登录技术等因素所致。另外,村与村之间界线不清,普查员对三权(所有权、使用权、承包经营权)理解模糊,对农户承包口粮田、种粮大户、户之间土地流转等混淆,以及土地全部征收、土地部分征收、土地未征收、"预征土地"等导致耕地面积的差异。由于城市不断向四周拓展,占用了大量的耕地,土地整理、易地待保、占补平衡进入实质性操作,人们的生存环境受到影响,对耕地面积的差异评估,产生诸多值得深思的问题。     

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济南市建成区扩展的时空特征及驱动力分析

以山东省济南市为例,以1979—2005年5个不同时相的遥感图像为数据源,利用遥感信息提取技术,获取了城市扩展的空间信息。结合济南市社会经济统计数据,从扩展方向、重心转移等方面综合分析了济南市建成区扩展的时空特征,并从人口、经济、地理区位、政策导向等4个方面探讨了城市扩展的驱动力。结果表明,济南市城区扩展的整体趋势是东西向的带状扩张,向东扩张明显,城市重心向东北方向转移;1979年济南市城区面积是52．7km^2,2005年达到311．6km^2,是1979年的5．9倍。     

延边地区花岗岩的成因类型及其形成的大地构造环境

延边地区地处吉林省的东部。研究区南部为渤海地块 ,北部为兴凯地块 ,东部与朝鲜和俄罗斯相毗邻 ,西部与吉中地区以敦化 -密山断裂为界。本文主要讨论本区古亚洲洋构造演化阶段所形成的花岗岩类问题 ,并据此对渤海地块与兴凯地块之间的增生、碰撞、缝合等问题进行探讨。     

大连地区更新世的哺乳动物

大连地区碳酸盐岩分布广泛 ,裂隙溶洞发育 ,洞穴堆积物中蕴含了丰富的更新世哺乳动物化石和古文化遗物 ,在境内陆地和附近海域陆续发现了 30余处化石点。在众多的化石点中尤以古龙山遗址和大连动物群最引人注目 ,前者在同一地点内采集到 377种上万件的脊椎动物骨骼化石 ,并伴有石器、骨器、灰烬等远古人类活动的遗物 ;后者包括了 2 8种早更新世的小型哺乳动物 ,这是大连乃至东北地区的首次报导。这些事实说明了东北地区不只是仅有晚更新世的动物群 ,至少还有早更新世的大连动物群 ,即使在晚更新世 ,也不只是单一的披毛犀 -猛犸象动物群 ,还存在着具有从华北向东北过渡性质的古龙山动物群。今后工作中应注意寻找古人类及中更新世的哺乳动物化石 ,加强对全新世动物遗骨的研究。     

中国雄黄雌黄矿床成因类型及找矿方向

文章阐述了中国雄黄雌黄矿床的矿床分布、矿床类型、控矿因素、矿赋岩石及成矿物质来源,划分了5个成矿带,提出按成矿带寻找不同类型雄黄雌黄矿床的见解.     

珠三角村镇建成区的空间型态：特征、类型和产业影响因素

改革开放以来,珠三角地区的工业迅速发展,村镇土地利用快速非农化,其中以东莞、中山、佛山3市最为典型。论文以3市为案例,探讨2010年来珠三角村镇建成区空间型态。研究数据主要包括广东省2015年土地利用现状数据和2009—2015年间3市的土地利用数据。首先,通过斑块密度、空间离散度、空间均匀度、平均斑块面积、分形维数、景观破碎度、缓冲区分析、Moran's I指数这8个指标,分析建设用地的空间形态特征。其次,分析工业用地与非工业建设用地、建设用地与交通道路的空间分布关系,比较并总结3市的村镇建成区空间类型。最后,基于灰色关联分析法,探讨影响空间类型的产业发展因素。研究发现,东莞村镇建设用地呈现高度破碎均匀分布型,佛山呈现团状离散型,中山介于二者之间,为中度碎化分散型;3市的产业发展能较大程度上影响其形成不同的建成区空间型态。未来,基于产业经济作为村镇建成区空间特征变化的主因,珠三角可以结合粤港澳大湾区规划建设,通过调整产业结构、布局以及交通和土地利用,优化村镇空间布局。