A simplified hindcast method for the estimation of extreme storm surge events in semi-enclosed basins

Human presence, coastal erosion, and tourism activities are increasing the attention to coastal flooding risk. To perform risk assessments, long time series of observed or hindcast wave parameters and tide levels are then necessary. In some cases, only a few years of observation are available, so that observed extreme data are not always representative and reliable. A hindcast system aimed to reconstruct long time series of total tide levels may be of great help to perform robust extreme events analysis and then to protect human life, activities as well as to counteract coastal erosion by means of risk assessments. This work aims to propose a simplified method to hindcast storm surge levels time series in semi-enclosed basins with low computational costs. The method is an extension of a previous work of some of the authors and consists of a mixed approach in which the estimation of storm surge obtained by using the theory of linear dynamic system is corrected by using a statistical method. Both steps are characterized by low computational costs. Nevertheless, the results may be considered reliable enough also in view of the simplicity of the approach. The proposed method has been applied to the Manfredonia case study, a small village located in the Southern Adriatic Italian coast and often prone to coastal flooding events. The comparison of extreme events estimated on the basis of hindcast levels time series is satisfactorily similar to those estimated on the basis of observed tide series.     

INTENSITY INDEX OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON AND ITS VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS

According to the basic characteristics of the activities of summer monsoon in the South China Sea,Standardized index,Is,has been designed that integrates a dynamic factor(southwesterly component) and a thermodynamic factor(OLR) for the indication of summer monsoon in the South China Sea,With the index determined for individual months of June,July and August and the entire summertime from 1975 to 1999,specific months and years are indicated that are either strong or weak in monsoon intensity,The variation is studied for the patterns and Is‘s relationship is revealed with the onset of summer monsoon and the precipitation in Guang-dong province and China.The results show that there are quasi-10 and quasi-3-4 year cycles in the interannual variation of the monsooon over the past 25 years.When it has an early(late)onset,the summer monsoon is usually strong (weak),In the strong(weak)monsoon,years,precipitation tends to be more(less)in the first raining season of the year but normal or less(normal)in the second,in the province,but it would be more(less) in northeastern China and most parts of the northern china and south of the lower reaches of the Changjiang River and less(more)in the middle and lower reaches of the river,western part of northern China and western China.     

基于海上风电场构建海洋水文同步实时现场观测系统的思考

海上风电是一种清洁的可再生能源。本文简述了海上风电发展概况, 并介绍了广东省在南海北部建设海上风电场的进展, 同时描述了南海北部一些典型的海洋水动力过程及其现场观测研究存在的难题; 最后提出利用海上风电场构建海洋水文现场同步实时网络系统的观点, 指出利用这些长期定点的网络式观测数据对研究海洋中小尺度动力过程等的优势。希望能为促进海上风电与海洋科学研究的融合发展提供参考。     

南海夏季风爆发日期和强度的短期气候预测方法研究

利用合成及相关统计方法，研究冬季南海季风指数与850hPa风场、500hPa高度、海表温度、OLR等环境场的相互关系及其影响南海夏季风活动的可能机制。指出冬季南海季风指数及环境场的异常特征可以作为预测南海夏季风活动的前兆信号。在此基础上建立了预测南海夏季风爆发日期和强度的概念模型，1998－2001年的预测试验取得了较好成绩。     

Water level variations in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries,North Carolina due to local and remote forcing

Water level time series records from the Neuse and Pamlico River Estuaries were statistically compared to local and distant wind field data, water level records within the Pamlico Sound and also coastal ocean sites to determine the relative contribution of each time series to water levels in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries. The objectives of this study were to examine these time series data using various statistical methods (i.e. autoregressive, empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF), exploratory data analysis (EDA)) to determine short- and long-time-scale variability, and to develop predictive statistical models that can be used to estimate past water level fluctuations in both the Neuse Estuary (NE) and Pamlico Estuary (PE). Short- and long-time-scale similarities were observed in all time series of estuarine, Pamlico Sound and subtidal coastal ocean water level and wind component data, due to events (nor'easters, fronts and tropical systems) and seasonality. Empirical orthogonal function analyses revealed a strong coastal ocean and wind field contribution to water level in the NE and PE. Approximately 95% of the variation was captured in the first two EOF components for water level data from the NE, sound and coastal ocean, and 70% for the PE, sound and coastal ocean. Spectral density plots revealed strong diurnal signals in both wind and water level data, and a strong cross correlation and coherency between the NE water level and the North/South wind component. There was good agreement between data and predictions using autoregressive statistical models for the NE (R² = 0.92) and PE (R² = 0.76). These methods also revealed significant autoregressive lags for the NE (days 1 and 3) and for the PE (days 1, 2 and 3). Significant departures from predictions are attributed to local meteorological and hydrological events. The autoregressive techniques showed significant predictive improvement over ordinary least squares methods. The results are considered within the context of providing long time-scale hindcast data for the two estuaries, and the importance of these data for multidisciplinary researchers and managers.     

Geology and petroleum potential of the Fairway Basin in the Tasman Sea

The Fairway Basin is a large, generally north – south-trending, sediment-filled structure in water 1500 – 3000 m deep, on the eastern slope of the Lord Howe Rise in the Tasman Sea, and is partly within Australian jurisdiction. It was poorly known until a few years ago, when seismic profiling and piston coring cruises were carried out. The basin, about 1100 km long and 120 – 200 km wide, can be divided into three segments—north, central and south—that trend northwest, north and north-northwest, respectively. All three segments probably formed by thinning of continental crust during breakup of Lord Howe Rise and surrounding aseismic continental ridges in the Late Cretaceous and Paleocene. Normal faulting, large inputs of terrigenous sediment and subsidence to bathyal marine depths occurred during that time. A period of compression, perhaps related to overthrusting on New Caledonia, occurred in the Eocene, leading to uplift (and in parts, erosion) of northern Lord Howe Rise, and reversal of faulting in the basin. By the Oligocene, the area was again in bathyal depths, and pelagic ooze and some turbidites accumulated. The basinal sequence is generally 2000 – 4000 m thick, with 1200 – 3200 m of Cretaceous to Eocene sediment concentrated in depocentres, capped by 500 – 800 m of Oligocene and younger sediment. In the depocentres, numerous sedimentary diapirs pierce sedimentary sequences. The sedimentary diapirs appear to be fed by Cretaceous muds deposited during rifting. Often, these diapirs are overlain by faults extending to the seafloor, and hummocky bathymetry is possibly caused by fluid escape. The overall geology suggests that the Fairway Basin may be a large frontier hydrocarbon province. Seismic profiles display a bottom-simulating reflector above many depocentres, 500 – 700 m below the seafloor. The bottom-simulating reflector has positive polarity, which could result from a diagenetic phase transformation, a thin gas hydrate layer with a sharp top, or from the sharp base of a gas layer (probably beneath gas hydrates). Standard piston cores taken above diapirs and apparent fluid-escape features have recovered little gas. Other than drilling, the next steps in assessing petroleum potential are to clearly document fluid-escape structures, and to sample any fluids emitted for hydrocarbons.     

海相黏性土状态与直接快剪试验指标的经验关系

通过对大连海域第四系全新统海相黏性土385组试验数据的统计与分析,建立了第四系全新统海相黏性土(Q4m)液性指数IL与直接快剪试验指标-黏聚力Cq、内摩擦角q的经验关系,即Cq=10.623 I-1.8114L; q=-3.8289ln(IL)+5.8634。     

南黄海微体古生物研究概述

从20世纪50年代至今,我国的海洋微体古生物研究从无到有,并且得到迅速发展.其中有孔虫、介形虫、放射虫、超微化石等海洋微体生物壳体是海洋地质研究不可缺少和替代的重要部分.南黄海是我国开展微体古生物研究较早、研究基础较好的海区.本文旨在回顾过去,立足现代,展望未来.     

Distribution characteristics of delta reservoirs reshaped by bottom currents: A case study from the second member of the Yinggehai Formation in the DF1-1 gas field,Yinggehai Basin,South China Sea

The Dongfang1-1 gas field (DF1-1) in the Yinggehai Basin is currently the largest offshore self-developed gas field in China and is rich in oil and gas resources. The second member of the Pliocene Yinggehai Formation (YGHF) is the main gas-producing formation and is composed of various sedimentary types; however, a clear understanding of the sedimentary types and development patterns is lacking. Here, typical lithofacies, logging facies and seismic facies types and characteristics of the YGHF are identified based on high-precision 3D seismic data combined with drilling, logging, analysis and testing data. Based on 3D seismic interpretation and attribute analysis, the origin of high-amplitude reflections is clarified, and the main types and evolution characteristics of sedimentary facies are identified. Taking gas formation upper II (IIU) as an example, the plane distribution of the delta front and bottom current channel is determined; finally, a comprehensive sedimentary model of the YGHF second member is established. This second member is a shallowly buried “bright spot” gas reservoir with weak compaction. The velocity of sandstone is slightly lower than that of mudstone, and the reflection has medium amplitude when there is no gas. The velocity of sandstone decreases considerably after gas accumulation, resulting in an increase in the wave impedance difference and high-amplitude (bright spot) reflection between sandstone and mudstone; the range of high amplitudes is consistent with that of gas-bearing traps. The distribution of gas reservoirs is obviously controlled by dome-shaped diapir structural traps, and diapir faults are channels through which natural gas from underlying Miocene source rocks can enter traps. The study area is a delta front deposit developed on a shallow sea shelf. The lithologies of the reservoir are mainly composed of very fine sand and coarse silt, and a variety of sedimentary structural types reflect a shallow sea delta environment; upward thickening funnel type, strong toothed bell type and toothed funnel type logging facies are developed. In total, 4 stages of delta front sand bodies (corresponding to progradational reflection seismic facies) derived from the Red River and Blue River in Vietnam have developed in the second member of the YGHF; these sand bodies are dated to 1.5 Ma and correspond to four gas formations. During sedimentation, many bottom current channels (corresponding to channel fill seismic facies) formed, which interacted with the superposed progradational reflections. When the provenance supply was strong in the northwest, the area was dominated by a large set of delta front deposits. In the period of relative sea level rise, surface bottom currents parallel to the coastline were dominant, and undercutting erosion was obvious, forming multistage superimposed erosion troughs. Three large bottom current channels that developed in the late sedimentary period of gas formation IIU are the most typical.     

华北山地多成因壶穴初步研究——对华北山地“冰臼”等“冰川地貌”的讨论

华北山地"距今二、三百万年"的"冰臼"绝大部分位于第四纪河谷内,"距今1～2万年"的"冰川壶穴"位于全新世河谷内,与华北山地地貌演化相矛盾;所谓的"冰川地貌"组合不是真正的地貌组合,而是不同时代、不同成因地貌的混合,因此,华北山地不存在冰臼。所谓的"冰臼"是不同时代、多种成因的壶穴——距今2.50Ma前后的河蚀壶穴,距今10～20ka的雪蚀壶穴,距今10ka以来的溶蚀穴、溶蚀—河蚀壶穴、风化—风蚀壶穴、现代壶穴和水潭。