非线性误差增长理论在大气可预报性中的应用

为了能从非线性误差增长动力学的角度来研究大气的可预报性问题,在非线性动力系统的理论和方法基础上,文中引入了可预报性研究的新方法--非线性局部Lyapunov指数.非线性局部Lyapunov指数及其相关统计量能够用来定量地确定混沌系统可预报性的大小,真正地实现了对可预报性的定量化研究.首先给出了利用大气单个变量的实际观测资料获得其可预报期限估计的计算方法,因而解决了将非线性误差增长理论应用到大气实际的可预报性研究中的问题.然后,以位势高度场为例,详细讨论了逐日时间尺度上全球可预报性的时空分布,得到的主要结论为:(1)在水平方向上,全球位势高度场可预报性表现为一定的南北纬向带状分布,赤道地区和南极地区的可预报期限最长,可以达到两周左右;北极地区次之,可预报期限大约为9-12 d;北半球中高纬度地区可预报期限相对较短,可预报期限大约为6-9 d;而在南半球的中纬度地区最短,可预报期限仅为4-6 d.此外,500 hPa位势高度场可预报性分市随季节有明显变化,季节不同一些可预报期限的高值区和低值区所在的纬度和经度也会不同,总体来说,全球大部分地区的可预报性冬季都大于夏季,尤其在南极地区、热带印度洋以及北太平洋地区.(2)在垂直方向上,位势高度场可预报期限随高度升商而增加,可预报期限从对流层下层的两周以下增加到平流层下层的1个月左右,对流层和平流层天气尺度运动的可预报期限与其时间尺度是十分一致的.     

非线性波动方程地震反演的方法原理及问题

在解反射地震的非线性反问题时,目前都采用各种迭代算法(如梯度法、最速下降法及共轭梯度下降法等),并以拟合差取极小为准则.本文对这方面具有代表性的波动方程反演理论作分析评述,指出这种经典性方法的缺点和局限,以及发展非线性波动方程地震反演的方向.     

Younger Dryas气候突变事件及可能机理

国际地圈─生物圈计划（ＩＧＢＰ）的中心议题之一就是研究过去的全球变化（ＰＡＧＥＳ），而对过去短期气候突变事件特别是对末次冰期─间冰期过渡时期的ＹｏｕｎｇｅｒＤｒｙａｓ事件的研究更受全球变化研究者的关注．然而，到目前为止，对ＹｏｕｎｇｅｒＤｒｙａｓ的成因及是否为全球性事件等问题，依然争论不休。本文即是对近年来国际上对此事件研究的综述。     

Analysis of biodegradation in a 3-D heterogeneous porous medium using nonlinear stochastic finite element method

Probabilistic analysis by Monte Carlo Simulation method (MCSM) is a computationally prohibitive task for a reactive solute transport involving coupled PDEs with nonlinear source/sink terms in 3-D heterogeneous porous media. The perturbation based stochastic finite element method (SFEM) is an attractive alternative method to MCSM as it is computationally efficient and accurate. In the present study SFEM is developed for solving nonlinear reactive solute transport problem in a 3-D heterogeneous medium. Here the solution of the biodegradation problem involving a single solute by a single class of microorganisms coupled with dynamic microbial growth is attempted using this method. The SFEM here produces a second-order accurate solution for the mean and a first-order accurate solution for the standard deviation of concentrations. In this study both the physical parameters (hydraulic conductivity, porosity, dispersivity and diffusion coefficient) and the biological parameters (maximum substrate utilization rate and the coefficient of cell decay) are considered as spatially varying random fields. A comparison between the MCSM and SFEM for the mean and standard deviation of concentration is made for 1-D and 3-D problem. The effects of heterogeneity on the degradation of substrate and growth of biomass concentrations for a range of variances of input parameters are discussed for both 1-D and 3-D problems.     

Probability distribution of random wave forces in weakly nonlinear random waves

Based on the second-order random wave theory, the joint statistical distribution of the horizontal velocity and acceleration is derived using the characteristic function expansion method. From the joint distribution and the Morison equation, the theoretical distributions of drag forces, inertia forces and total random wave forces are determined. The distribution of inertia forces is Gaussian as that derived using the linear wave model, whereas the distributions of drag forces and total random forces deviate slightly from those derived utilizing the linear wave model. It is found that the distribution of wave forces depends solely on the frequency spectrum of sea waves associated with the first order approximation and the second order wave–wave interaction.     

长江下游旱涝与夏半年欧亚环流30～60天振荡的年际变化

对 2 5a(1 971～ 1 995年 )逐候东半球热带外 50 0 h Pa高度距平场进行小波分析和旋转主成分分析 ,研究了 30～ 60 d低频振荡的时空变化及其与长江下游夏季旱涝和暴雨频数年际变化的关系。结果表明 :6～ 1 0月欧亚型 (EU)低频振荡强度与长江下游暴雨频数成显著负相关 ,同时 ,提出了能揭示变量间非线性关系的对比函数分析 (CFA)方法 ,发现当 5～ 8月西太平洋型 (WP)低频流型偏强时 ,长江下游暴雨频数增加 ,容易发生洪涝 ;反之 ,无明显影响。仅当前期 3～ 5月南亚大陆型偏强时长江下游降水量偏少 ,而 3～ 5月南亚大陆型偏弱时暴雨频数明显增加。因此 ,长江下游旱涝与低频流型异常之间同时存在线性和非线性相关。     

Dynamic analysis of stacked rigid blocks

The dynamic behavior of a structural model of two stacked rigid blocks subjected to ground excitation is examined. Assuming no sliding, the rocking response of the system standing free on a rigid foundation is investigated. The derivation of the equations of motion accounts for the consecutive transition from one pattern of motion to another, each being governed by a set of highly nonlinear differential equations. The system behavior is described in terms of four possible patterns of response and impact between either the two blocks or the base block and the ground. The equations governing the rocking response of the system to horizontal and vertical ground accelerations are derived for each pattern, and an impact model is developed by conservation of angular momentum considerations. Numerical results are obtained by developing an ad hoc computational scheme that is capable of determining the response of the system under an arbitrary base excitation. This feature is demonstrated by using accelerograms from the Northridge, CA, 1994, earthquake. It is hoped that the two-blocks model used herein can facilitate the development of more sophisticated multi-block structural models.     

科氏力作用下涡旋运动的等值线动力学

本文提出了在科氏力作用下,单圈常值涡旋运动等值线动力学的计算公式。用这些公式实施了四组计算,结果与以往动力学分析和数值试验的结论定性一致,数值也较为合理。     

粘性力在地形变动力学模型演化过程中的作用

本文分别利用Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数方法和特征值方法，对摸拟地震过程的线性粘弹性动力学模型的稳定性进行了分析，并讨论了粘性力在地形变动力学系统演化过程中的作用，采用Ｒｕｎｇｅ－Ｋｕｔｔａ格式的Ｍｅｒｓｏｎ修改方法模拟了在不同粘性系数时线性和非线性动力学系统的演化过程，得出了一些有意义的结论和认识。     

Two-dimensional nonlinear site response analysis of Adapazarı plain and predictions inferred from aftershocks of the Kocaeli earthquake of 17 August 1999

The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of local site conditions in the Adapazarı plain crossing the severely damaged central part of Sakarya during the 17th August earthquake. A two-dimensional model has been used to obtain the free-field motions in the valley and on surface formations. A preliminary geotechnical profile model developed from available but limited soil data was checked using recordings of some specific locations where a strong ground motion accelerometer array was in operation after the main earthquake. The range of validity of the model was assessed and modifications were made to compare with the actual recorded motions. The purpose of building such a model, which was used to study the aftershocks in Adapazarı, is to provide an improved database to be used for the design of structures in the city. This study also attempts to provide greater insight into the local site response phenomena through the use of a two-dimensional nonlinear analysis. Simulated site responses are in global agreement with the recorded data. In general agreement between the amplification functions of the computed and recorded data is satisfactory for the frequencies of engineering interest. Alluvial sites show amplification factors in the range of 4–6 in the frequencies between 0.6 and 2 Hz. A relatively shallow alluvial station, HASTAHANE, experienced considerable amplification for small aftershocks and deamplification for the strongest aftershock in frequencies between 0.5 and 2 Hz. Another station, TOYOTA, with significant deamplification characteristics and a clearly observed peak response frequency shift at the soil resonant frequency may have experienced soil shear failure during the strongest aftershock. Other alluvial stations, SEKER and GENC, show deamplification characteristics at 0.55 and at around 1 Hz. with the peak frequency shifts during the magnitude 5.8 aftershock. In general, site responses are larger in the alluvial basin for all aftershocks except the magnitude 5.8 event.