Water temperature behaviour in the River Loire since 1976 and 1881

Analysis of monthly mean river temperatures, recorded on an hourly basis in the middle reaches of the Loire since 1976, allows reconstruction by multiple linear regression of the annual, spring and summer water temperatures from equivalent information on air temperatures and river discharge. Since 1881, the average annual and summer temperatures of the Loire have risen by approximately 0.8?°C, this increase accelerating since the late 1980s due to the rise in air temperature and also to lower discharge rates. In addition, the thermal regime in the Orleans to Blois reach is considerably affected by the inflow of groundwater from the Calcaires de Beauce aquifer, as shown by the summer energy balance. To cite this article: F. Moatar, J. Gailhard, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Spatial and temporal variability of Holocene temperature in the North Atlantic region

The early Holocene climate of the North Atlantic region was influenced by two boundary conditions that were fundamentally different from the present: the presence of the decaying Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) and higher than present summer solar insolation. In order to assess spatial and temporal patterns of Holocene climate evolution across this region, we collated quantitative paleotemperature records at sub-millennial resolution and synthesized their temporal variability using principal components analysis (PCA). The analysis reveals considerable spatial variability, most notably in the time-transgressive expression of the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). Most of the region, but especially areas peripheral to the Labrador Sea and hence closest to the locus of LIS disintegration, experienced maximum Holocene temperatures that lagged peak summer insolation by 1000-3000 years. Many sites from the northeastern North Atlantic sector, including the Nordic Seas and Scandinavia, either warmed in phase with maximum summer insolation (11,000-9000 years ago) or were less strongly lagged than the Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea region. These spatially complex patterns of Holocene climate development, which are defined by the PCA, resulted from the interplay between final decay of the LIS and solar insolation forcing.     

Rodent paleofaunas as indicators of climatic change in Europe during the last 125,000 years

This paper presents a quantitative reconstruction of the European late Pleistocene paleoclimate based on 72 rodent assemblages of five sequences from France, Germany and Bulgaria, covering the last interglacial-glacial cycle. They show a pattern of severe changes in temperature, with reduced precipitation during the coldest periods. A tentative correlation between the isotopic and palynological records and the paleotemperature changes is shown. These changes are consistent with variations in atmospheric circulation patterns in response to an expanding-retracting Fennoscandian ice-sheet. They can be attributed to the enhancement-weakening of the Scandinavian-Polar anticyclone and its associated dry winds, the south-north shifting of the North Atlantic Polar Front, and the varying supply of moist air from the Atlantic. Qualitative paleoenvironmental analysis shows broadleaved-deciduous forests in France and Bulgaria during most of the studied period. Taiga and tundra appeared in eastern France during the lower Würm. The German sequence indicates the presence of coniferous forests. These results are broadly consistent with other paleobiological records (mammalian, avian and insect faunas, isotopic record in dental tissue, palynology). The main discrepancies with the paleoclimate inferred from the palynological record are found during the coldest periods and are probably due to the interaction between vegetation, climate, and atmospheric CO₂ levels.     

Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.     

大变形有限元法分析边坡稳定性

边坡稳定性分析的重要任务是确定边坡潜在滑面的位置及相应的安全系数,鉴于坡体位移可在现场监测中直接得到,提出边坡潜在滑面确定的位移判据,采用大变形有限元首先计算出边坡的位移场,然后在开挖面的不同高度作塑性区内的水平位移参考线,依次连接参考线上的位移突变点即得到边坡失稳的潜在滑面位置,分析滑面上的应力以及岩体抗剪强度即得到边坡的整体安全系数。     

近几十年我国极端气温变化特征分区方法探讨

采用聚类统计检验分析和旋转主分量分析相结合确定中心站的方法,利用我国多年极端气温资料,对我国最高和最低气温年际变化型态进行区划。结果表明,这两种方法结合可以互相补充,使分区结果更具客观性。中国极端高温和极端低温年际变化分别可划为12和11个不同类型的区域,分别计算了各区域第一主成分的方差贡献率以及各区域之间的两两相关系数,检验证明分区是合理的。     

双坡面临空岩质边坡滑动破坏模式下的稳定性分析

多数岩质边坡稳定性分析已基本解决了常走向单坡面临空的边坡平面滑动问题。然而,在路堑边坡工程和自然边坡中有很多边坡坡面并不是平面,它包含多个坡面。多坡面边坡包含两个或多个不同走向的坡面。多坡面边坡几何特征不同于单坡面边坡,所以滑动条件也不一样。在赤平投影图上,多坡面的滑动包络线是组成边坡的每个坡面单独投影包络线的组合。为了探讨方便,只讨论了双坡面临空岩质边坡的滑动破坏模式,并将其分为双坡面临空下的平面破坏和楔形体破坏。在赤平投影图上,双坡面滑动区域定义为双坡面边坡滑动包络图中两侧坡面的真倾线之间的面积。如果有一两个节理面真倾向线落在滑动区内,滑动破坏才可能发生。     

GIS技术支持下的招远市金矿区崩塌遥感调查

在总结前人研究成果的基础上,全面系统地分析了诱发招远市金矿区崩塌的自然和人为因数,然后运用遥感技术对金矿区遥感图像进行处理,提取诱发崩塌的条件因子,聘请有经验的专家对各项诱发因子进行诊断分析,以此作为判断条件,在G IS技术的支持下对诱发崩塌的条件因子进行空间分析,预测出招远金矿区发生崩塌的危害程度,为防治崩塌提供科学依据。预测结果表明,招远金矿区崩塌有进一步发展的可能,其中,高危险区有36820 m2,中易发区有50 610 m2,低易发区有67 200 m2,需要采取有效措施加以防治。     

20世纪90年代以来中外区域规划研究的对比分析

区域规划是国家政府进行区域管理的重要手段和方式之一。为了落实科学发展观和对区域发展有效宏观调控,区域规划成为国家“十一五”规划的重要内容。本文对比分析了1990年代以来国外区域规划研究的主要进展、以及我国区域规划研究的特点与不足,以期为推动我国当前新一轮区域规划的理论研究和实践创新提供有益启示。     

发展中山会展旅游的思考

会展旅游是当今世界旅游业发展的一个重要方向，是一个蕴涵巨大价值的旅游项目，是都市旅游不可或缺的一部分。中山会展旅游不仅有着良好的区位条件，而且具有持续发展的良好经济环境。但中山会展旅游的宜传、促销力度不够，专业人才匮乏，市场运作不完善，旅游辅助作用有限，同时，面临周边城市的激烈竞争。对此，应把会展旅游作为培育中山旅游的重要动力来认识，加强对会展旅游的宣传推广，提高认识；培养专业人才，建立会展旅游组织；强化特色，准确定位；广泛协作联合，使广州的会展旅游走上可持续发展轨道。