长时效的正压原始方程能量完全守恒(拟)谱模式

遵循误差反演补偿新计算原理,对正压原始方程传统气象全球拟谱模式方案进行了改造,构造了正压原始方程能量完全守恒全球拟增模式新计算方案,解决了正压原始方程的（非线性）计算稳定性问题和能量守恒整体性质保持问题,改进了相应正压原始方程传统气象全球拟谱模式方案的计算效能。新方案的数值试验表明：在计算实践上,新方案在解决能量守恒问题的同时,可解决（非线性）计算稳定性问题,并在一定条件下可解决非线性计算收敛性问题。进一步的比较数值试验还表明：在计算实践上,新方案具有在提高相应传统气象方案的计算精度,减少其计算量的同时,延长其计算时效,解决其中一类特定“气候漂移”问题方面的效用。本工作原理也适用于斜压原始方程情形。     

港湾中海啸流的模拟及其时空演变特征对输入条件不确定性的响应分析

一直以来,海啸波特征作为表征海啸潜在破坏性的参数指标得到了广泛应用,特别是针对近场极端海啸事件造成的灾害来说,这种表征具有较好的适用性.然而总结分析历史海啸事件造成的损失发现：在远场近岸及港湾系统中,海啸诱导的强流却是造成损失的主要原因.陆架或港湾振荡导致海啸波幅快速升降诱发强流,可能促使港工设施受到威胁及损害,进而对海啸预警服务及海事应急管理提出了新的挑战.因此,全面理解与评估海啸在港湾中诱发的灾害特征,探索港湾中海啸流的数值模拟方法,发展针对港湾尺度的海啸预警服务指导产品尤为迫切.受限于海啸流验证数据的缺乏及准确模拟海啸流技术方法的诸多不确定性,大部分海啸数值模拟研究工作主要是针对水位特征的研究及验证,可能导致对港湾中海啸灾害危险性认识的曲解与低估.本研究基于非线性浅水方程,针对夏威夷群岛三个典型港湾建立了精细化海啸数值模型（空间分辨率达到10 m）,并联合有限断层破裂模型计算分析了日本东北地震海啸在三个港湾及其邻近区域的海啸特征,波、流计算结果与实测结果吻合较好,精细化的海啸港湾模型模拟结果可信.模拟发现港湾中较小的波幅,同样可以产生强流.综合分析日本东北地震海啸波、流特征对输入条件不确定性的响应结果发现：港湾中海啸波-流能量的空间分布特征差异较大,这与港湾系统中海啸波的驻波特性相关;相比海啸波幅空间特征,海啸流特征具有更强的空间敏感性;海啸流时空分布特征对输入条件的不确定性响应比海啸波幅对这些不确定性的响应更强,海啸流的模拟与预报更有挑战性;不确定性对海啸流计算精度的影响会进一步传导放大港湾海啸流危险性的评估及对港工设施产生的应力作用的误差,合理的输入条件对海啸流的精确模拟至关重要.最后,希望通过本文的研究可以从海啸波-流特征角度更加全面认识近岸海啸灾害特征,拓展海啸预警服务的广度与深度,从而为灾害应急管理部门提供更加科学合理的辅助决策产品.     

三维复杂地壳结构非线性走时反演

中国大陆中西部乃至全球造山带普遍具有复杂地壳结构.随着矿产资源勘探和深部探测研究的深入,探测造山带及盆山耦合区下方地壳精细结构正逐渐成为当前面临的巨大挑战.人工源深地震测深方法正越来越清晰地揭示出不同构造域地壳速度结构的基本特征,然而传统的层状结构模型参数化方法难以准确描述复杂地质模型,通常情况下多忽略速度结构的精细间断面且采用层边界平滑处理,难以满足地壳精细结构成像的发展要求.针对上述困难,本文采用最近发展的块状结构建模方案构建三维复杂地壳模型,基于逐段迭代射线追踪正演走时计算方法,推导了走时对三角形界面深度以及网格速度的偏导数,开展了非线性共轭梯度走时反演方法研究.发展了利用直达波和反射波等多震相走时数据对界面深度和网格速度的多参数联合反演方法,并引人不同种类震相数据的权系数和不同类型参数偏导数归一化的方法.数值算例表明,基于块状结构的非线性共轭梯度走时反演方法适用于复杂地壳结构模型,在利用人工源走时数据反演复杂地壳精细结构领域具有良好的应用前景.     

大功率高频电波加热电离层的非线性物理过程

地基大功率电波加热电离层是通过地基大功率短波发射机向电离层发射无线电波,通过波-粒和波-波的相互作用将无线电波的能量注入电离层.通过这种有目的可操控的方式改变电离层电子密度和温度的分布,可以深入研究电离层中等离子体能量和物质的非线性演化过程,特别是电离层电子的非平衡态分布和加速问题.本文通过对电离层加热中几个比较重要物理过程的评述,对过去20年来我国研究学者在这一研究方向上取得的重要进展进行了介绍.     

残余位移反应谱的参数影响研究

从PEER强震数据库中选取4类场地的320条地震动记录作为输入,采用BISPEC程序对非线性单自由度（SDOF）体系（周期T=0.05—5s）进行非线性时程分析,得到相应的残余位移反应谱（Dres）,进而研究地震动特性和恢复力模型动力参数对Dres的影响,得到如下结论:①Dres谱值随震级和PGA的增加而增大;其他设防烈度的Dres可由PGA_其他与PGA_基准之比调整基准烈度的Dres得到。②场地土较硬时,场地类型对Dres的影响较小;场地土较软时,Dres谱值随土质的变软而增大。③当位移延性比μ较小时,屈服后刚度比η对Dres的影响可忽略;但当μ较大时,Dres谱值随η的增加而减小。另外,Dres谱值还随阻尼比ξ的增加而减小。④随着T或μ的增大,Dres谱值均呈递增趋势;但当μ>3后,μ对Dres谱值的影响有所下降。     

Time-domain numerical and segmented ship model experimental analyses of hydroelastic responses of a large container ship in oblique regular waves

Real sea conditions are characterized by multidirectional sea waves. However, the prediction of hull load responses in oblique waves is a difficult problem due to numeral divergence. This paper focuses on the investigation of numerical and experimental methods of load responses of ultra-large vessels in oblique regular waves. A three dimensional nonlinear hydroelastic method is proposed. In order to numerically solve the divergence problem of time-domain motion equations in oblique waves, a proportional, integral and derivative (PID) autopilot model is applied. A tank model measurement methodology is used to conduct experiments for hydroelastic responses of a large container ship in oblique regular waves. To implement the tests, a segmented ship model and oblique wave testing system are designed and assembled. Then a series of tests corresponding to various wave headings are carried out to investigate the vibrational characteristics of the model. Finally, time-domain numerical simulations of the ship are carried out. The numerical analysis results by the presented method show good agreement with experimental results.     

Nonlinear dynamic analysis of Meloland Road Overpass using three-dimensional continuum modeling approach

This paper presents a three-dimensional (3D) continuum nonlinear analysis of the Meloland Road Overpass (MRO) near El Centro, California. The modeling methodology and the computational tools are discussed in detail. The performance of the computational model is evaluated by comparing the computed responses with the responses recorded at the bridge site during the 1979 Imperial Valley and 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquakes. Amongst the recorded earthquake events at the bridge site, these two events caused the strongest shaking. The comparison shows that the 3D model is potentially an effective tool for detailed analysis of a full bridge system including foundation soils, pile foundations, embankments, supporting columns, and the bridge structure itself in a unified system without relying on any ancillary models such as Winkler springs. Additional response parameters such as displacements, rockings, and bending moments are also evaluated although none of these was measured during the seismic events.     

Geotechnical design with apparent seismic safety factors well-bellow 1

The paper demonstrates that whereas often in seismic geotechnical design it is not realistically feasible to design with ample factor of safety against failure as is done in static design, an “engineering” apparent seismic factor of safety less than 1 does not imply failure. Examples from slope stability and foundation rocking illustrate the concept. It is also shown that in many cases it may be beneficial to under-design the foundation by accepting substantial uplifting and/or full mobilization of bearing capacity failure mechanisms.     

On numerical earthquake prediction

Can earthquakes be predicted? How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction? This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earthquake prediction must also develop from empirical forecasting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.     

造山动力学定量研究--理论与方法

造山动力学定量研究近10年来取得了重要进展,形成了较完整的理论技术体系,并获得了大量有说服力的实例分析结果,成为当前大陆变形研究的热点之一。造山动力学定量研究采用数值方法求解控制方程,获得造山带演化动态过程的图像,了解不同因素对该过程的影响作用,从力学解析的角度确定造山动力学模型的合理性。研究造山演化过程需要耦合固体力学、流体力学和热力学方程进行描述。造山演化过程中发生的强烈大位移、大应变（几何非线性）使得数值求解过程更复杂。对于强烈大应变可能需要采用重分网格技术。断裂的发生、运动与变形涉及岩石破裂准则与内部边界处理。同时,还必须综合分析地表剥蚀与沉积、重力均衡等作用。