灰色GM(1,1)残差修正模型在滑坡预测中的对比应用

在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上,经过不同方式的残差修正,分别建立了一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型和二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型。根据滑坡的监测资料,对变形曲线为光滑型滑坡(如黄龙西村滑坡、某滑坡)和阶跃型滑坡(如新滩滑坡、洒勒山新滑坡)分别建立了传统GM(1,1)模型和一阶、二阶残差修正模型,并对不同滑坡各模型的预测精度进行了分析比较。结果表明,残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度明显高于传统GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。对变形曲线为光滑型的滑坡,二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度一般高于一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度;对变形曲线为阶跃型的滑坡,一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度高于二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。     

ASSESSMENT OF 17β-ESTRADIOL IN AQUATIC ENVIRONMENTS AROUND KLANG VALLEY, MALAYSIA

This study was conducted to assess the existing concentration of 17β-estradiol(E2)in the surface water samples collected from rivers and lakes around Klang Valley,Malaysia.E2,which is a natural feminizing chemical produced in female organisms,regularly used to compare with other environmental estrogens because they behave similarly and react effectively as a hormone at a very low concentration.It was found that the average concentration of E2 in the aquatic environment of Klang Valley was(14.08 ±3.67)pg/mL,which was 14 times higher than those in the Japanese aquatic environment in this study.The river system had the average concentration of(20.02±5.26)pg/mL while the lake had an average concentration of(5.91±3.39)pg/mL.The E2 concentration was presumed high if the sources occurred nearby the area.Current levels of E2 in the aquatic environment may possess threats to existing aquatic organisms.Since high level of E2 has been discovered in the aquatic environment around Klang Valley,further studies and monitoring of E2 and other EDCs concentrations are needed to determine their levels in Malaysian aquatic environment and help to control these chemicals pollution in the aquatic environment.     

北固山淡水潮汐湿地土壤对铜(Ⅱ)和铬(Ⅵ)的吸附特征研究

以长江河口地区北固山淡水潮汐湿地为研究对象,采用一次平衡法研究了生长有芦苇(Phragmites austra-lis)、虉草(Phalaris armdinacea)植物的湿地土壤和边滩裸地对重金属Cu(Ⅱ)和Cr(Ⅵ)的吸附特征。结果表明,湿地土壤对Cu(Ⅱ)的吸附受到植物类型与温度变化效应的交互影响。20℃时,生长有芦苇的湿地土壤对Cu(Ⅱ)的吸附量最大,生长有虉草的湿地土壤次之,边滩裸地最小;当温度的升高至30℃时,上述差异明显减小。对以阴离子形式存在的Cr(Ⅵ)而言,湿地土壤和边滩裸地对其吸附量的植物类型差异性不明显。当温度从20℃升高至30℃时,湿地土壤和边滩裸地对Cu(Ⅱ)、Cr(Ⅵ)的吸附量都减小,反映出研究区湿地土壤对两种重金属的吸附机制表现为化学吸附作用较弱,物理吸附作用相对较强,吸附呈放热过程。Freundlich方程是描述淡水潮汐湿地土壤Cu(Ⅱ)、Cr(Ⅵ)等温吸附的最佳模型,方程中常数n和k的大小能够体现吸附过程中存在的植物类型与温度变化影响效应,比较真实的反映了吸附的过程。     

基于3S技术和USLE的深圳市茜坑水库流域土壤侵蚀强度预测研究

基于RS、GPS和GIS(3S技术)的集成提出了USLE 6大因子的算法,在建立的专题地理信息数据库基础上,运用USLE对深圳市茜坑水库流域的土壤侵蚀强度进行预测和估算.结果表明:整个流域90.5%的区域土壤流失强度为中度以下,强度侵蚀以上的区域虽然仅占整个流域面积的9.5%,但是年土壤侵蚀量达到了整个流域土壤侵蚀量的49.4%.流域土壤侵蚀强度和植被覆盖情况明显相关,茜坑水库流域的东北山区部分是整个流域的严重侵蚀区.研究证明:在3S技术集成支持下,采用USLE对流域的土壤流失强度进行预测和估算的方法具有直观、方便、快捷的优点,成果能充分满足小流域水土保持工作的需要.     

Spheroidal oscillations of the Earth stimulated by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake with CDSN data

The 0S2~0S54 spheroidal modes of Earth’s free oscillations, triggered by the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 are retrieved from VHZ data recorded by seven upgraded stations of China Digital Seismograph Network (CDSN). We compare these spheroidal modes with theoretical free oscillation spectra calculated from the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM) and find a coincidence between their periods. Spectral splitting phenomenon is observed obviously in 0S2, 0S3, 0S4, 2S1 and 1S2 free oscillation modes. What is most noticeable is that the oscillation mode 2S1 is reported for the second time (the first time by Rosat et al) without any data stacking. We simulated the split singlet of 0S2 mode on seven CDSN stations based on general focal mechanism and seismic moment of the earthquake. The result shows that seismic moment of the earthquake can reach 1023 N.m. We also find that the recording of Earth’s free oscillations carries abundant information of source mechanism and earthquake location, which is applicable to the detailed study of source rupture parameters.     

Epicentral distribution in 2006

For showing the epicentral distribution in and near China as well as all over the world, two epicentral maps for the earthquakes occurred last year are published annually in the 6-th issue     

垃圾填埋场动力稳定机理及稳定分析研究现状与进展

简述国内外在垃圾填埋场动力稳定机理及稳定分析方面的研究现状与最新进展，包括：1．垃圾土（MSW）与接触面的属性参数；2．垃圾土的本构模型；3．填埋场动力分析方法。     

流体在大陆裂谷附近下地壳地震中的作用

在大陆裂谷附近的下地壳中发生地震一直令人费解,这是因为人们一般认为下地壳太热,不会发生脆性破裂(Ruff,2004;Chen and Molnar,1983)。这类异常事件通常被解释为下地壳温度低于正常值(Doserand Yarwood,1994;Shudofskyet al,1987)。但是如果下地壳温度确实低以致引发地震,那么它下面的上地幔温度也应足够低(Chenand Molnar,1983),然而我们至今尚未观测到上地幔地震(McKenzieet al,2005)。大量下地壳地震发生在新西兰的一个活动大陆裂谷———陶波火山区(TVZ)的西南端附近(Sherburn and White,2005)。在此,我们采用由密集部署的地震…     

基于尺度的GIS空间资料表达模型

介绍了基于层的GIS空间资料表达方法易于进行空间查询与空间分析处理的优点,针对其引起的地图难以进行扩展与图像显示转换困难的缺点,提出了基于尺度(比例尺)的空间资料表达新方法.在基于尺度的空间资料表达方法中,地图可以由空间对象,区域,尺度视图三级尺度模型表达.对尺度方法下的地图结构,地图组织,指标结构,地图扩展等在理论上作了探讨,提出了基于尺度的方法与已广为使用的基于层的方法的有效集合,将有可能成为地理信息表达研究的最重要研究方向.     

1:50000 数字高程模型(DEM)的质量控制

通过 1:5 0 0 0 0数字高程模型生产实践 ,对生产过程中容易出现问题的环节提出了相应的质量控制方法