日本“311”海啸对江苏北部沿海影响分析

北京时间2011年3月11日13时46分日本东北部发生里氏9.0级强烈地震,江苏北部的灌河口潮位站正好记录下海啸期间的潮位资料。由于以往对海啸波动的过滤提取方法不统一,而且人为因素影响较大,误差积累影响了后续科研工作的进行。提出综合利用小波能谱、功率谱和滤波分析等方法结合海啸识别结果来提取海啸波的方法,并且成功提取出灌河口站海啸波的周期范围、影响时间和最大波峰。同时采用COMCOT海啸数学模型,讨论了江苏沿海海啸波传播方式,解释了灌河口潮位站海啸波最大波峰未出现在第一波的原因,是因为江苏北部山东半岛特殊的地形使得在黄海传播的海啸波发生反射,与之前的波动产生叠加效果导致的。分析结果表明:江苏沿海由于海啸直接引起的海啸波不高,但是海啸波叠加之后,最大波高却是之前的2倍,因此在海啸预报中应该全面考虑地理位置特点,分析海啸波运动的反射叠加等特征,从而提高预报质量。     

Extreme Case Study of Quay Wall Stability under Earthquake and Tsunami

This study was conducted to determine the stability of a quay wall under the combined action of an earthquake and tsunami. Adopting the limit equilibrium method, the stability of the quay wall was assessed for both the sliding and overturning modes under passive and active conditions. The variation in the stability of the quay wall was determined by parametric studies, including those for the tsunami wave height, seismic acceleration coefficient, internal friction angle of soil, wall friction angle, and pore water pressure ratio. The stability of the wall was also compared with the case of no earthquake and tsunami forces. When the earthquake and tsunami were considered simultaneously, the stability of the wall under the passive condition decreased significantly. The critical mode of the quay wall under the earthquake and tsunami forces was found to be that of the overturning mode. In the active condition, the safety factors for sliding and overturning increased, because the tsunami acted as a resisting force. However, it should be noted that, if a tsunami wave spills over the quay wall and then flows backward to the wall active condition, the tsunami no longer acts as a resisting force.     

基于全球海洋模型GOCTM的海啸传播过程数值模拟——以2004印尼大海啸为例

文中利用在有限体积近海模型FVCOM基础上拓展开发的全球海洋模型GOCTM(Global Ocean Circulation and Tide Model)进行了海啸波传播过程模拟,GOCTM采用全球无结构三角形网格,避免了开边界条件引入带来的误差,利用德国AWI研究所提供的海啸源作为初始水位场,模拟了2004年12月26日苏门答腊-安达曼Mw 9.2地震引发的海啸传播过程。通过模拟结果与印度沿岸潮位站数据以及海啸发生过程观测到的卫星高度计数据进行了对比,发现模拟结果与观测值相近,相关系数最高达0.82,相关性较好。模拟的海啸波到达苏门答腊岛北部的时间与日本的TUNAMI 模型和德国AWI研究所的TsunAWI模型的模拟结果相符,时间相差不到30 min,证明GOCTM全球模型可以较好地对海啸传播过程进行模拟,结果令人满意,希望本工作可以为我国海啸预报和预警提供参考。     

海啸波作用下泥沙运动——Ⅳ.建筑物局部冲刷

基于波浪水槽实验,以沿海公路为对象,对海啸波作用下建筑物局部冲刷机理开展研究。实验采用1/10与1/20的组合坡度,选取N波作为入射波。实验对波高、波浪的上爬、回落和水跃过程、每个波作用后的地形进行了测量和记录。实验结果表明,N波作用下地形发生冲淤变化,在回落水流所形成的螺旋流作用下,路基向海侧形成明显的冲刷坑。路基所在位置是最主要因素,波高是次要因素,路基深度影响较小。路基位于滩肩侵蚀发生处,则最大冲刷深度相对较大。     

安徽寿县新元古界球-枕状构造的双重成因与古地震脉动旋回研究

在安徽寿县新元古界四十里长山组下部粉砂-细砂岩沉积地层中,发育一组具有双重成因的球-枕状软沉积物变形构造.对露头剖面进行实地观测研究显示,变形构造形成于浅海陆棚边缘斜坡带的地震灾变事件层中.由于滑塌砾石落入表层粉砂质软沉积层,在地震震颤应力作用下形成具砾石核心的球-枕状体,又在地震脉动旋回性连续震颤作用下,继续沉陷至下部液化砂层中,形成了具有双重成因的球-枕状软沉积变形构造.它经受了地震、海啸、滑塌、滑褶、震颤晃动沉陷、液化泄水、软塑性紧缩变形等多项复杂的同沉积变形作用过程.显示出该地震事件具有前震阶段、主震阶段、余震阶段等多次震颤脉动旋回性地质作用的地质事件,地震能量强度最大应超过里氏7级,为研究海洋震积岩的软沉积变形及脉动旋回性过程提供了重要的实物资料.     

Sedimentology of tsunami inflow and backflow deposits: key differences revealed in a modern example

Onshore tsunami deposits may consist of inflow and backflow deposits. Grain sizes can range from clay to boulders of several metres in diameter. Grain‐size distributions reflect the mode of deposition and may be used to explore the hydrodynamic conditions of transport. The absence of unique sedimentary features identifying tsunami deposits makes it difficult in some cases to distinguish inflow from backflow deposits. On Isla Mocha off central Chile, the 27 February 2010 tsunami left behind inflow and backflow deposits of highly variable character. Tsunami inflow entrained sands, gravels and boulders in the upper shoreface, beach, and along coastal terraces. Boulders of up to 12 t were transported up to 300 m inland and 13 m above sea‐level. Thin veneers of coarse sand were found up to the maximum runup at 600 m inland and 19 m above sea‐level. Backflow re‐mobilized most of the sands and gravels deposited during inflow. The orientation of erosional structures indicates that significant volumes of sediment were entrained also during backflow. A major feature of the backflow deposits are widespread prograding fans of coarse sediment developed downcurrent of terrace steps. Fan sediments are mostly structureless but include cross‐bedding, imbrication and ripples, indicating deposition from bedload traction currents. The sediments are poorly sorted, grain sizes range between medium to coarse sand to gravel and pebbles. An assessment of the backflow transport conditions of this mixed material suggests that bedload transport at Rouse numbers >2·5 was achieved by supercritical flows, whereas deposition occurred when currents had decelerated sufficiently on the low‐gradient lower coastal plain. The sedimentary record of the February 2010 tsunami at Isla Mocha consists of backflow deposits to more than 90%. Due to the lack of sedimentary structures, many previous studies of modern tsunami sediments found that most of the detritus was deposited during inflow. This study demonstrates that an uncritical use of this assumption may lead to erroneous interpretations of palaeotsunami magnitudes and sedimentary processes if unknowingly applied to backflow deposits.     

Measuring Tsunami Preparedness in Coastal Washington,United States

A survey of over 300 residents and visitors (non-residents) perceptions of tsunami hazards was carried out along the west coast of Washington State during August and September 2001. The study quantified respondents preparedness to deal with tsunami hazards. Despite success in disseminating hazard information, levels of preparedness were recorded at low to moderate levels. This finding is discussed in regard to the way in which people interpret hazard information and its implications for the process of adjustment adoption or preparedness. These data are also used to define strategies for enhancing preparedness. Strategies involve maintaining and enhancing hazard knowledge and risk perception, promoting the development of preparatory intentions, and facilitating the conversion of these intentions into sustained preparedness. A second phase of work began in February 2003, consisting of a series of focus groups which examined beliefs regarding preparedness and warnings, and a school survey. Preliminary findings of this work are presented.     

The NTHMP Tsunameter Network

A tsunameter (soo-NAHM-etter) network has been established in the Pacific by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Named by analogy with seismometers, the NOAA tsunameters provide early detection and real-time measurements of deep-ocean tsunamis as they propagate toward coastal communities, enabling the rapid assessment of their destructive potential. Development and maintenance of this network supports a State-driven, high-priority goal of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program to improve the speed and reliability of tsunami warnings. The network is now operational, with excellent reliability and data quality, and has proven its worth to warning center decision-makers during potentially tsunamigenic earthquake events; the data have helped avoid issuance of a tsunami warning or have led to cancellation of a tsunami warning, thus averting potentially costly and hazardous evacuations. Optimizing the operational value of the network requires implementation of real-time tsunami forecasting capabilities that integrate tsunameter data with numerical modeling technology. Expansion to a global tsunameter network is needed to accelerate advances in tsunami research and hazard mitigation, and will require a cooperative and coordinated international effort.     

Estimation of Tsunami Risk for the Coasts of Peru and Northern Chile

Data for tsunamigenic earthquakes and observed tsunami run-up are used to estimate tsunami-risk for the coasts of Peru and northern Chile for zones bounded by 5–35° S latitude. Tsunamigenic earthquake estimates yield magnitudes of 8.52, 8.64, and 8.73 for recurrence periods of 50, 100, and 200 years, respectively. Based on three different empirical relations between earthquake magnitudes and tsunamis, we estimate expected tsunami wave heights for various return periods. The average heights were 11.2 m (50 years), 13.7 m (100 years), and 15.9 m (200 years), while the maximum height values (obtained by Iidas method) were: 13.9, 17.3, and 20.4 m, respectively. Both the averaged and maximum seismological estimates of tsunami wave heights for this region are significantly smaller than the actually observed tsunami run-up of 24–28 m, for the major events of 1586, 1724, 1746, 1835, and 1877. Based directly on tsunami run-up data, we estimate tsunami wave heights of 13 m for a 50-year return period and 25 m for a 100-year return period. According to the seismic gap theory, we can expect that the next strong earthquake and tsunami will occur between 19 and 28° S in the vicinity of northern Chile.     

Estimates of Tsunami Risk Zones on the Coasts Adjacent to the East (Japan) Sea based on the Synthetic Catalogue

Prognostic characteristics of tsunamis in the East (Japan) Sea based on numerical simulations are investigated by using linear long wave theory. Due to the lack of observed data, the concept of the synthetic catalogue is applied to generate possible tsunami scenarios. It includes four real events that occurred in the East (Japan) Sea during the 20th century, 24 hypothetical tsunamigenic earthquakes located in the gap zones of the seismic map, and 76 idealized model ‘hydrodynamic’ sources covering the eastern part of the East (Japan) Sea uniformly. The tsunami wave height distributions along the East (Japan) Sea coastline due to these hypothetical events are computed. From the geographical distributions of tsunami wave height for all possible events, it is found that there exist several coastal locations where the tsunami risk is relatively lower than in other zones. The relation between the maximal value of the tsunami height and its average value is analyzed. It is found that the maximal tsunami height does not exceed the mean wave height times a constant. The uniform bounded curve for all areas can be obtained if the mean wave height is replaced by the modified mean wave height (1/3 of largest waves). The problem of quantitative definition of the prognostic tsunami wave height for each location based on the data from the synthetic catalogue is discussed. The results of tsunami wave height analysis based on the synthetic catalogue can be used as a tool for coastal disaster mitigation planning.