周、秦、汉、唐时期关中地区自然灾害与粮食安全问题研究

周、秦、汉、唐时期,关中农业较为发达,为多个王朝建都之地。京师之地的粮食问题十分重要,汉代以后屡屡出现粮食紧张局面,其原因除移民、战乱等因素外,自然灾害的影响不容忽视。研究发现,周、秦、汉、唐时期,关中的粮食在秦以前基本自给,两汉、魏晋以后依赖关东趋于明显,隋唐时期关中粮食所需则自产自给和漕运并重。这一演变过程,与关中自然灾害的发生状况有着紧密联系。随着西汉以后生态环境的破坏和人类垦殖活动的日益加剧,关中地区水旱灾害发生频繁,对粮食安全产生了严重影响。期间的中央政府不断采取扩大农业垦殖、提高农业生产技术和漕运等手段,以解决京师用粮。     

酸碱滴定法测定天然石膏中的碳酸盐(无水碳酸)

建立了用溴百里酚蓝—酚红作指示剂,酸碱滴定法测定天然石膏中碳酸盐的方法。在确定了试验条件的基础上,对石膏国家一级标准物质GBW03109a和GBE03110分析,相对标准偏差分别为0.08%、1.05%;分析3个天然石膏样品,相对标准偏差分别为1.47%、1.67%和0.25%;对试样进行加标回收,回收率在95.53%～97.02%之间;方法检出限为0.15%。表明用该方法测试,结果准确可靠。     

New method for in situ characterization of loose material for landslide mapping purpose

The assessment of grain size distribution and plasticity of loose geological material, during in situ geological investigations, is not obvious. Visual appreciation allows an approximative quantification of the coarse granulometric fractions, but not of the fine ones. Field soils determination methods suggested until now, are visual and tactile tests leading to a very rough estimate, which is only qualitative and not very reproducible. The new proposed field test (GEOLEP method) allows a quick quantification of the fine fraction of loose material. It allows the determination of the sand fraction (fine and medium grained sands) as well as the methylene blue value of the samples. The necessary equipment to perform this test is light and compact and the time needed to analyze one sample is approximately 15 min. Thus it is also possible to carry out numerous measurements in one day. The calibrations were carried out on a selection of 13 natural samples, chosen for their representativeness of the typical alpine quaternary deposits. The results obtained with GEOLEP method are relevant compared with standardized laboratory tests; the obtained correlation indexes are of 73% for the comparison with laboratory stain test results and of 89% with a laboratory method using a similar procedure than the field test. The correlation we performed with Atterberg's limits tests shows that a rough approximation of plasticity index can also be obtained (R² = 75%). This method thus brings a new tool which should allow taking into account the lithological factor (by some quantitative and representative variables) in a reliable way for the evaluation of landslide hazards.     

西安地区部分古遗址考古地磁研究

通过对陕西耀州窑遗址内4个古窑,临潼兵马俑一号坑,西铜一级公路经过黄堡工地开挖的两个五代窑,以及耀州窑博物馆仓库工地内开挖的一个金代窑和一个春秋窑遗址的古地磁研究,初步得出了西安地区古地磁场变化的规律,为鉴定从春秋到金代西安地区的古遗址、古文物提供了考古地磁学上的一个粗略的标准。     

Microclimatic characterization of a karstic cave: human impact on microenvironmental parameters of a prehistoric rock art cave (Candamo Cave, northern Spain)

The Candamo Cave contains an important group of paleolithic paintings which have been seriously deteriorated due to mass tourism. In this work, an analysis was carried out of different climatic parameters (CO₂, temperature, humidity, ²²²Rn) during annual cycles with the cave closed to the public and during an experimental period of controlled visits. The effect of visits on the geochemical characteristics of karstic water was also analyzed together with the cave ventilation. The natural variations in the cave air CO₂ were above 3000 ppm, the increase produced through visits was only 100–110 ppm and since the humidity is almost permanently at saturation point, the critical parameter which limits the visitor capacity becomes air temperature. The temperature changes during the annual cycle are of the order of 1  °C in the external part and less than 0.5  °C in the internal part of the cave and a maximum increase of 0.13  °C was observed during the period of the visits. The ²²²Rn and CO₂ concentration minimums in the summer period (July–October) show that this is the most propitious time for visits, since the greatest ventilation is produced in the cave at this time and, therefore, the greatest capacity for recovery. The geochemistry of the water, on the other hand, indicated that this is the period of the year in which processes of wall corrosion can be most easily introduced, although this would be of limited magnitude. The visitor capacity calculated was 29 visitors/day. Received: 29 August 1996 · Accepted: 23 June 1997     

自然灾害复杂性研究

从自然灾害系统的观点出发,阐述了自然灾害系统的特点,提出了自然灾害复杂性的概念。基于前人研究的一些成果,讨论了分形,混沌,人工神经网络等非线性理论以及定性与定量综合集成技术在自然灾复杂性研究中的应用。     

中国传统民居建筑文化的自然地理背景

讨论了气候、地貌与水文、地质与植被等自然地理要素对中国传统民居建筑的格局、型式、风格、特色等方面的影响。在此基础上分析了以功利观、审美观和生态观为内涵的中国传统民居建筑文化的自然观。     

自然类比法对张北──尚义6.2级地震序列类型和震后趋势早期判断实例

用自然类比法对1998年1月10日张北─尚义6．2级地震序列类型和震后趋势进行了早期判断,找出了与之最相似的四个序列是1976年9月23日巴音木仁6．2级地震（S17）、1996年5月3日包头6．4级地震（558）、1985年4月18日禄劝6．3级地震（S34）和1984年5月21日南黄海6．0级地震（S33）。由此判断张北地震序列为主震余震型,推算最大余震震级应在4．3～4．7之间,一个月内4级以上余震数可能在11～22次之间。实测结果张北地震最大余震震级4．6,一个月内4级以上余震数18次,均在预测范围内。     

Monitoring,causality, and uncertainty in a stratospheric context

Our increasingly complex understanding of stratospheric chemistry and transport processes leaves us with various theoretical possibilities of appreciable and perhaps serious environmental impact due to human activities. These possibilities raise policy questions in which the economic and other costs of regulating human activities must be weighed against the possible consequences of no such regulation. The natural variability of the atmosphere, the physical and other limitations on our global sampling and monitoring abilities, and the difficulties in establishing causal connections leave us in a state of uncertainty as to the reality and magnitude of at least some of these theoretical environmental impacts. Policy-makers must make decisions in the face of these uncertainties.The proper role of scientists as such in narrowing and quantifying the uncertainties is discussed, with particular regard to the evidence that cultural and other biases often affect individual scientists' conclusions. Conscious efforts are needed to minimize bias, quantify uncertainties, and speed up the process of scientific consensus-building. A careful distinction should be drawn between scientifically determined probabilities, and cost-benefit analyses which necessarily involve value judgments.     

The role of social norms in climate adaptation: Mediating risk perception and flood insurance purchase

Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context.