Deriving rules from activity diary data: A learning algorithm and results of computer experiments

 Activity-based models consider travel as a derived demand from the activities households need to conduct in space and time. Over the last 15 years, computational or rule-based models of activity scheduling have gained increasing interest in time-geography and transportation research. This paper argues that a lack of techniques for deriving rules from empirical data hinders the further development of rule-based systems in this area. To overcome this problem, this paper develops and tests an algorithm for inductively deriving rules from activity-diary data. The decision table formalism is used to exhaustively represent the theoretically possible decision rules that individuals may use in sequencing a given set of activities. Actual activity patterns of individuals are supplied to the system as examples. In an incremental learning process, the system progressively improves on the selection of rules used for reproducing the examples. Computer experiments based on simulated data are performed to fine-tune rule selection and rule value update functions. The results suggest that the system is effective and fairly robust for parameter settings. It is concluded, therefore, that the proposed approach opens up possibilities to derive empirically tested rule-based models of activity scheduling. Follow-up research will be concerned with testing the system on empirical data. Received: 31 January 2001 / Accepted: 13 September 2001     

多层电流片中双撕裂模耦合的压强效应

应用边界层理论研究了等离子体压强对多层电流片中m≥2的双撕裂模耦合的线性和非线性发展行为的影响.考虑等离子体的压强效应，在一阶近似下，解析求得了环位形中双撕裂模的外区匹配参数Δ′.结果表明，当等离子体β<<1时，等离子体压强对双撕裂模的两有理面模之间通过撕裂模外区发生耦合作用的线性行为没有定性影响.虽然等离子体压强将影响双撕裂模耦合的非线性行为，但是主要表现在对其单模项的影响，而对由于两有理面模之间的耦合作用产生的耦合项的影响却很小.     

Water resources optimization and eco-environmental protection in Qaidam Basin

In order to realize sustainable development of the arid area of Northwest China, rational water resources exploitation and optimization are primary prerequisites. Based on the essential principle of sustainable development, this paper puts forward a general idea on water resources optimization and eco-environmental protection in Qaidam Basin, and identifies the competitive multiple targets of water resources optimization. By some qualitative methods such as Input-output Model & AHP Model and some quantitative methods such as System Dynamics Model & Produce Function Model, some standard plans of water resources optimization come into being. According to the Multiple Targets Decision by the Closest Value Model, the best plan of water resources optimization, eco-environmental protection and sustainable development in Qaidam Basin is finally decided.     

Water resources optimization and eco-environmental protection in Qaidam Basin

During the development of Qaidam Basin, which is an arid area in Northwest China, rational water resources utilization and optimization are primal prerequisites, and the main restrictive factors include the following facts: scarcy water resources are non-substitutional and uneven distributed in time and space. Based on the essential principle of sustainable development, this paper adopts Multiple Targets Decision by the Closest Value Model, and succeeds in getting the best plan, which can o…     

Jewish settlement of Hebron: The place and the other1

Kiryat-Arba and Jewish Hebron are communities planted in the most heated front of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This paper examines how the Hebron Jewish settlers' collective memory interprets the `truth' of Hebron as a typical Israeli Place that reveals Zionism in its purest form. Today the populations of Kiryat-Arba and of the Hebron Jewish enclaves number about 5,000 and 500, respectively. Kiryat-Arba functions as an economic and educational centre for the nearby Jewish settlements in the region. Rejecting the segregative concept of a separate Jewish settlement overlooking Hebron, the settlers treat Kiryat-Arba as part of Hebron. Some 70,000 Palestinians live in Hebron, many more residing in neighbouring towns and villages, cutting Hebron – Kiryat–Arba off from the nearest Jewish urban centres of Jerusalem and Beer-Sheva. The settlers initiated the narrative of `Return' to the city after the massacre of Jews in 1929 in the city, as the key symbol Symbolically, the first place Hebron Jews reidentified with was its ancient Jewish graveyard. Today, IDF soldiers protect settlers and their visitors who want to tour Hebron. The huge gulf between `metaphorical Hebron' as a symbolic centre and `actual Hebron' as a poor development town creates tensions fuelling violent events. The Jews in Hebron take the Israeli logic of `Place' making to its extreme, thus testing concepts of Israeli territoriality. If Israeli society rejects Hebron as a `Place' constructed from intense memories and violent national encounters, it would leave the Hebron Jews out of the so-called Israeli normalcy.     

一种气候预测综合决策的方法——递归正权综合决策法

根据气候预测的特点，提供了以误差平方和为风险函数，以正权综合为模式的多途径气候预测决策方案。不仅从理论上论证了几种正权方法的优性，还提供了递归技巧，进一步提高了正权综合的预测精度。对1997年汛期降水预测所做的综合决策表明，该方法具有较好的综合决策能力。     

冬半年冷空气过程中期预报业务系统

介绍了一种以数值预报产品为基础，结合预报经验，运用天气学、统计学、能量学诊断、人工智能和延伸预报等多种技术手段，通过综合决策，制作冷空气过程的中期预报方法。     

随机地震动场激励下拱坝多点输入的抗震可靠度分析

本文首次将空间随机地震场输入用于拱坝随机振动分析之中，与拱坝三维动力学有限元法结合，完成了三维拱坝在空间随机地震动场作用下的随机振动分析方法及算法的研究，另外考虑动力和静力的叠加，提出了三维空间随机地震动场的拱坝抗震可靠度分析方法，最后编制了相应的程序，对小湾拱坝进行了抗震可靠度分析，并与随机变量的结果进行了比较。     

高层建筑地震反应最优多重TLD控制

本文以坑层建筑地震反应进行了最优多重ＴＬＤ（ＭＴＬＤ）ｓ控制研究。文中阐述了ＴＬＤ系统的工作原理笔ＭＴＬＤｓ系统的参数；建立了多层结构－ＴＭＬＤｓ系统耦联体系的运动方程；分析了ＭＴＬＤｓ系统的参数对在谐波作用下多层结构动力反应的影响以及各参数之间的关系。     

长江防洪决策支持系统——防洪决策风险分析

针对长江中游防洪决策过程,筛选出几个主要的风险因子.考虑暴雨洪水历史资料,短期洪水位预报以及中长期雨洪预报三种不同信息条件,建立防洪决策风险分析模型,针对长江三峡至螺山河段防洪系统,是否启用分蓄洪区的各种防洪决策方案,给出决策风险的定量描述.