油气储运系统钢结构设备地震火灾效应研究

预防和减轻油气储运系统地震火灾危险性是防震减灾中的重要课题。本文论述了油气储运系统的地震火灾特征及防火要求，对钢结构的防火涂料在遭到破坏和平时情况下的抗火性能进行了对比分析，并应用有限元法对油气储运系统中典型钢结构设备在地震火灾荷载作用下的抗火性能进行了数值模拟。研究结果表明，防火涂料遭到强地震荷载破坏后，钢结构的抗火性能大大降低。     

水库群系统优化调度新进展

从确定库群目标函数和相应的约束条件，以及选取求解模型的最优化方法方面系统地阐述了近年来国内外水库群优化调度研究的进展。指出多种优化理论的耦合，基于巨型计算机、并行分布式计算技术以及网格技术的优化方法，基于规则的优化调度方法研究以及空间数据的决策支持系统研究，这是今后水库群优化调度研究的发展方向。     

Reducing model complexity for explanation and prediction

Numerical models can be useful for explaining poorly understood phenomena or for reliable quantitative predictions. When modeling a multi-scale system, a ‘top-down’ approach—basing models on emergent variables and interactions, rather than explicitly on the much faster and smaller scale processes that give rise to them—facilitates both goals. Parameterizations representing emergent interactions range from highly simplified and abstracted to more quantitatively accurate. Empirically based large-scale parameterizations lead more reliably to accurate large-scale behavior than do parameterizations of much smaller scale processes. Conversely, purposefully simplified representations of model interactions can enhance a model's utility for explanation, clarifying the key feedbacks leading to an enigmatic behavior. For such potential insights to be relevant, the interactions in the model need to correspond to those in the ‘real’ system in some straightforward way. Such a correspondence usually holds for models constructed for predictive purposes, although this is not a requirement. The goals motivating a modeling endeavor help determine the most appropriate modeling strategies, as well as the most appropriate criteria for judging model usefulness.     

The harmonious character in equilibrium aeolian transport on mixed sand bed

Wind tunnel experiments were carried out to measure the spatial distribution in equilibrium transport of four types of mixed sand. The flux profiles of each grain size group were calculated. It is found that the vertical distribution of mean grain size has a close relation with the grain size distribution in the sand bed. In a log-linear plot, the flux profiles of main grain size groups are all straight lines and their slopes are nearly equal. It is also found that the ratio of transport rate of each size group to the whole transport rate is directly proportional to the mass ratio of each size group in the sand bed and the proportion value is only dependent on the grain size. This harmonious law is applicable to all four types of mixed sand used in the experiment.     

Geodynamics of the Early Precambrian,Part 1: Volcanism and associated mantle processes

The work is dedicated to most important abiotic processes of the Early Precambrian, effect of which is recorded in continental crust, and to complementary processes in subcontinental mantle. We intend to figure out when a certain process was triggered first in the past and what indications suggest its further activity, evolution and possible cessation in subsequent geological history. Considerations are based on described natural objects characterizing particular geological events and enabling the cause-and-effect interpretation in order to understand different viewpoints known from publications. Considered in the work are the early Precambrian greenstone belts and ophiolites, island-arc systems and ecologites, magmatism unconnected with subduction zones (rifting-related, plateau basalts, dykes, kimberlites) and anorthosites representing a group of heterochronous intrusions of complicated genesis. Main considerations are premised with a brief review of the earliest geodynamic phenomena associated with meteorite impacts by termination of the planetary accretion.     

Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico

In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods. In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations.     

Effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Grote-Nete catchment,Belgium

The effects of climate change on the groundwater systems in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium, covering an area of 525 km², is modeled using wet (greenhouse), cold or NATCC (North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Change) and dry climate scenarios. Low, central and high estimates of temperature changes are adopted for wet scenarios. Seasonal and annual water balance components including groundwater recharge are simulated using the WetSpass model, while mean annual groundwater elevations and discharge are simulated with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater model. WetSpass results for the wet scenarios show that wet winters and drier summers are expected relative to the present situation. MODFLOW results for wet high scenario show groundwater levels increase by as much as 79 cm, which could affect the distribution and species richness of meadows. Results obtained for cold scenarios depict drier winters and wetter summers relative to the present. The dry scenarios predict dry conditions for the whole year. There is no recharge during the summer, which is mainly attributed to high evapotranspiration rates by forests and low precipitation. Average annual groundwater levels drop by 0.5 m, with maximum of 3.1 m on the eastern part of the Campine Plateau. This could endanger aquatic ecosystem, shrubs, and crop production.     

A contribution to seismic shear design of R/C walls in dual structures

The paper focuses on the seismic response of walls in dual (frame + wall) structures, with particular emphasis on shear behaviour. Although dual structures are widely used in earthquake-resistant medium-rise and high-rise buildings, the provisions of modern seismic codes regarding design of walls for shear are not fully satisfactory, particularly in the (common) case that walls of substantially different length form part of the same structure. Relevant provisions of the leading seismic codes are first summarised and their limitations discussed. Then an extensive parametric study is presented, involving two multistorey dual systems, one with identical walls, and one with walls with unequal length, designed to the provisions of Eurocode 8 for two different ductility classes (H and M). The walls of the same structures are also designed to other methods such as those used in New Zealand and Greece. The resulting different designs are then assessed by subjecting the structures to a suite of strong ground motions, carrying out inelastic time history analysis, and comparing the results against design action effects. It is found that although modern code procedures generally lead to satisfactory performance (differences among them do exist), the design of walls seems to be less appropriate in the case of unequal length walls. For this case a modified procedure is proposed, consisting of an additional factor to account for the relative contribution of walls of the same length to the total base and an improved envelope of wall shears along the height; this improved method seems to work better than the other procedures evaluated herein, but further calibration is clearly required.     

Impact of Doppler Radar Wind in Simulating the Intensity and Propagation of Rainbands Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Using MM5-3DVAR System

Pre-monsoon rainfall around Kolkata (northeastern part of India) is mostly of convective origin as 80% of the seasonal rainfall is produced by Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). Accurate prediction of the intensity and structure of these convective cloud clusters becomes challenging, mostly because the convective clouds within these clusters are short lived and the inaccuracy in the models initial state to represent the mesoscale details of the true atmospheric state. Besides the role in observing the internal structure of the precipitating systems, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) provides an important data source for mesoscale and microscale weather analysis and forecasting. An attempt has been made to initialize the storm-scale numerical model using retrieved wind fields from single Doppler radar. In the present study, Doppler wind velocities from the Kolkata Doppler weather radar are assimilated into a mesoscale model, MM5 model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for the prediction of intense convective events that occurred during 0600 UTC on 5 May and 0000 UTC on 7 May, 2005. In order to evaluate the impact of the DWR wind data in simulating these severe storms, three experiments were carried out. The results show that assimilation of Doppler radar wind data has a positive impact on the prediction of intensity, organization and propagation of rain bands associated with these mesoscale convective systems. The assimilation system has to be modified further to incorporate the radar reflectivity data so that simulation of the microphysical and thermodynamic structure of these convective storms can be improved.     

Defining shore platform boundaries using airborne laser scan data: a preliminary investigation

As an initial evaluation of the potential of digital elevation models (DEMs) and geographic information systems (GISs) for geomorphic characterization of rocky shorelines, airborne laser scan (ALS) data have been used to characterize shore platforms around Shag Point, southeastern New Zealand. The platforms have been characterized using field‐based techniques in previously published research, and therefore offer an ideal site for evaluation purposes. The main challenge involved the delineation of the shore platform area in terms of landward and seaward extents. The cliff top and landward edge of the shore platform was readily mapped, whereas the seaward edge of platforms was mapped with lesser precision due to difficulties associated with tidal inundation and the interference of wave action and surface water. In the central region of the study area (～0·1 km²) higher platform elevations and dense point cloud data enabled the generation of a high‐resolution (1 m) DEM. In analysing the DEM, ALS offered an advantage over the previous field survey in respect of the ability to assess continuous topography in plan‐view. The extent and form of two distinctive erosional surfaces is clearly apparent and was revealed through classifications based on slope and elevation. The spatial continuity of the upper surface implies that, in addition to the role of rock structure described in previous work, sea level and wave exposure may have been important factors in the generation and preservation of platform morphology at Shag Point. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.