WRF-RUC在2014年江西汛期降水预报中的检验分析

利用江西省92个国家气象观测站雨量资料,对2014年汛期江西WRF-RUC系统的降水预报进行逐6 h、12 h和24 h晴雨检验、降水分级检验以及同期区域暴雨个例检验分析。结果表明:1)6 h、12 h、24 h晴雨检验PC评分分别达0.6、0.7、0.8,系统表现了稳定的预报性能。2)系统对小雨、中雨和大雨具有较好的预报能力,对局地暴雨、大暴雨的预报能力较弱,而对区域暴雨的预报具参考意义。3)系统有效地缩短了spin-up时间,系统在积分6 h后达到最佳预报性能,并在起报后6—12 h时段,预报效果最佳。4)系统对降水范围以及小雨、中雨、大雨过度预报,对暴雨、大暴雨范围预报比较合理。     

1960-2011年辽宁省大暴雨时空分布特征

利用1960-2011年辽宁省61个国家气象站地面20-20时降水及逐小时降水观测资料,统计分析辽宁大暴雨时空分布特征。结果表明：辽宁省年平均大暴雨日数为6.5 d,年平均影响范围为17.5站次,两个大暴雨多发区分别位于辽宁东南部和南至西南沿海地区。辽宁东南部大暴雨多发区由于受台风、江淮气旋、华北气旋和蒙古气旋等多种系统及地形影响,易出现区域性和局地性大暴雨,大暴雨发生次数较多,降水量变化较大;降水量和降雨强度极值均较大,大暴雨中心出现在凤城,降雨强度最大达212 mm/h^-1。南至西南沿海大暴雨多发区易受台风和华北气旋及地形影响,以区域性大暴雨为主,降水量和降雨强度极值也较大,但最大降水量和降雨强度极值均与大暴雨日数的中心不一致。区域性大暴雨的降水量极值对大暴雨降水量极值的贡献最大。大暴雨平均降雨强度的逐时变化呈单峰型分布,08时降雨强度达最强,20时降雨强度最弱。辽宁省大暴雨日集中出现在7月下旬至8月上旬,8月大暴雨日略多于7 月。最早和最晚区域性大暴雨均是受江淮气旋影响,并出现在辽宁省南部地区。大暴雨日数具有明显的周期变化,主要年代际变化周期为10 a。区域性和局地性大暴雨主要周期分别为36 a和10 a。预计未来6 a辽宁省仍处于大暴雨较多的阶段,并可能多以局地性大暴雨的形式出现。     

Dating Methods of Cold-water Corals and Their Application in Reconstructing Carbon-reservoir Ages of Intermediate and Deep Oceans

Establishing a precise chorology is a critical issue when employing cold-water coral as paleoenvironmental archives. Currently, U-Th, ¹⁴C and ²¹⁰Pb dating techniques are the most frequently used methods. The high-magnesium calcite skeleton of bamboo coral has clear growth bands, which is appropriate for ¹⁴C and ²¹⁰Pb dating methods and holds a great potential to be high-resolution archives of mid-to-deep ocean evolution. Aragonitic stony coral is appropriate for both U-Th and ¹⁴C dating methods, which is valuable in paleoceanographic research. Because the U-Th method can provide the absolute chronology of coral samples, it can further be used to calculate the ¹⁴C age of ocean carbon reservoirs. Therefore, U-Th and ¹⁴C dating results of stony coral are currently the most reliable data for exploring the evolution of ocean carbon reservoirs through the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. It has been found that the ¹⁴C ventilation ages of intermediate water masses of the equatorial Atlantic and Southern Ocean significantly decreased at the end of the Heinrich Stadial 1. This suggests a massive carbon transfer from deep oceans to the atmosphere, or the Atlantic intermediate depths were ventilated by the southern- and the northern-sourced water masses, respectively, before and after the Heinrich Stadial 1.     

磷循环的非线性动力学特性及富营养化

本文在假设湖泊受单一营养盐磷限制和不考虑湖底沉积物影响的情形下,建立了一个单层箱体磷循环的非线性动力学模型,研究湖泊中颗粒磷、可溶性磷和藻类中的磷这三种磷之间的相互关系,理论上分析了磷循环系统的稳定特性,得出三种形式的磷共存是系统趋向稳定的平衡点．然后论文又从人工治理的角度,通过数值计算综合考虑外源性磷、水力冲刷、生物调控和基质浓度因素对磷循环的影响,分析不同因素的改变对系统和湖泊水质的影响,进而对这一类的富营养化现象防治提供可行性的工程上的实际建议．     

Neoproterozoic SHRIMP U–Pb zircon ages of silica-rich Dokhan Volcanics in the North Eastern Desert,Egypt

Chronology of Neoproterozoic volcanosedimentary successions remains controversial for many regions of the Arabian–Nubian Shield, including the Dokhan Volcanics of NE Egypt. New U–Pb zircon SHRIMP ages have been obtained for 10 silica-rich ignimbrites and two subvolcanic dacitic bodies, mapped as Dokhan Volcanics, from the North Eastern Desert of Egypt. Crystallization ages range between 592 ± 5 and 630 ± 6 Ma (Early Ediacaran). Apparently, the late consolidation of the Arabian–Nubian Shield was accompanied by the evolution of isolated volcanic centres and basin systems which developed during a period of approx. 40 Ma, independently in space and time and probably under changing tectonic regimes. The obtained age data together with other previously published reliable ages for Dokhan Volcanics suggest two main pulses of volcanic activity: 630–623 Ma and 618–592 Ma. Five samples contain inherited zircons, with ages of 669, 715–746, 847 and 1530 Ma, supporting models that North Eastern Desert crust is mainly juvenile Neoproterozoic crust.     

卫星资料循环同化应用对区域数值预报效果影响分析

为提高卫星资料在同化系统中的利用率及验证卫星微波资料对区域数值预报效果的影响,本文以2008年8月1-31日为研究时段,利用WRF模式及其WRF-3DVAR同化模块,设计并构建了卫星微波资料的快速循环同化方案,分析循环同化方案对数值预报的改进效果.结果表明,相比于单时次同化,循环同化方案使各预报要素的相关系数在一定程度上得到改善,均方差也呈现减小的趋势.此外,对研究时段内暴雨和台风个例的具体分析显示,循环同化方案能够有效改善降水和台风路径的预报.     

The Cambrian to Aquitanian geological record of the Longi-Taormina Unit (Calabria-Peloritani Arc,southern Italy): geodynamic implications

The Longi-Taormina Unit forms the “Dorsale calcaire” of the Peloritani Alpine Belt (southern Calabria-Peloritani Arc). It is made by a thick sedimentary cover of Meso-Cenozoic age overlying a Variscan weakly metamorphosed Cambrian to Carboniferous succession.

The Palaeozoic series consists of pelitic to arenaceous sediments containing layers of acidic and basic volcanics. The acidic volcanics are affected by the “Caledonian” compressional deformations and are referred to Early Ordovician. The basic rocks belong to two different volcanic cycles; the first, not dated, is ascribed to the Caledonian cycle according to its geochemical signature; whereas the second, middle-late Devonian in age, is interpreted to have formed in the framework of pre-Variscan extensional tectonics. During the Variscan Orogeny (330 Ma), the area recorded metamorphism up to subgreenschist-to-greenschist facies and two main deformation phases, marked by syn-schistose early folds (Dv₁), overprinted by dominantly NW-SE trending late folds (Dv₂).

During the Aquitanian, deformation related to the Alpine Orogeny led to imbrication of the Palaeozoic and Meso-Cenozoic series. The sedimentary cover was affected by a series of N090° to N130° trending folds. Detailed stratigraphical and structural investigations on the tectonic contact between the Longi-Taormina Unit, and the overlying Fondachelli Unit indicate that this structure is part of a frontal thrust ramp which developed during the Aquitanian.

Our geological and structural studies on the Cambrian to Aquitanian rocks of the Longi-Taormina Unit of the Calabria-Peloritani Arc enable to unravel the complex geodynamic history of the central-western Mediterranean area.     

基于Web Service的地球系统碳循环建模框架研究

在分析了现有地球系统碳循环模型后,提出了基于Web Services的建模框架方案。定义了地球系统碳循环建模框架的体系结构,设计了地球系统碳循环模型服务的元数据。最后,构建了地球系统碳循环模型服务耦合与兼容性校验方式。实验表明,基于Web Services的地球系统碳循环建模框架可以实现网络环境下异构碳循环模型服务的集成建模。     

月球引潮力振动与大气潮汐的周期变化

在天气学中,当复杂而开放的气候系统处于远离平衡的临界状态时,任何微小的外力扰动都有可能带来一场雪崩式的"蝴蝶效应";而天气系统的演变尽管错综复杂,其实质却主要是冷暖气团的强弱与进退,再就是月球引潮力的周期变化还能引发周期大气潮。据此推想,在月球的周期运行过程中,是交点月南、升、北、降水平引力拐点所产生的引潮力振动(方向、大小的改变),通过大气内部的动力过程,对不稳定气团可产生激发作用,从而引导冷暖空气南北进退和天气系统演变,便出现了周期大气潮和转折天气周循环。     

The Impact of Orographically-Induced Gravity Wave on the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over Southeast Kalimantan Island

Precipitation measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite indicate that the southeastern area of Kalimantan (Borneo) Island receives much less rainfall than elsewhere on the island during the period from July to October.Results from sur-face meteorological observations show that the diurnal cycle of rainfall differs greatly between the eastern and western coasts of the island.Rainfall on the western coast of the island is frequent in the afternoon and evening,whereas almost all rainfall on the eastern coast occurs in the morning.Meanwhile,the Global Positioning System (GPS)-derived precipitable water (PW) on the eastern coast shows a substantial decrease in moisture in the af-ternoon and evening.Numerical experiments with a mesoscale model reveal that gravity waves driven by di-urnal heating of the elevated land surface of the moun-tains on Sulawesi Island,which lies approximately 300 kilometers to the east of Kalimantan Island,significantly affect the diurnal cycle of rainfall over southeast Kali-mantan Island.