BP模型在变形监测数据分析和预测中的应用

本文通过对BP网络模型的研究,建立BP神经网络预测模型,并使用VC++语言编程加以实现。将模型应用于东江大坝实测变形监测数据的分析和预测,对时间序列建模和以环境变量为自变量两种方法建模,发现这两种模型都可以很好的实现变形量的预测,且以自变量为因素所建立的模型预测精度更高。     

Thermomechanical model of hydration swelling in smectitic clays: I two-scale mixture-theory approach

A thermomechanical theory of hydration swelling in smectitic clays is proposed. The clay is treated as a three-scale swelling system wherein macroscopic governing equations are derived by upscaling the microstructure. At the microscale the model has two phases, the disjoint clay platelets and adsorbed water (water between the platelets). At the intermediate (meso) scale (the homogenized microscale) the model consists of clay particles (adsorbed water plus clay platelets) and bulk water. At the macroscale the medium is treated as an homogenized swelling mixture of clay particles and bulk-phase water with thermodynamic properties defined everywhere within the macroscopic body. In Part I, the mesoscopic model governing the swelling of the clay particles is derived using a mixture-theoretic approach and the Coleman and Noll method of exploitation of the entropy inequality. Application of this procedure leads to two-scale governing equations which generalize the classical thermoelastic consolidation model of non-swelling media, as they exhibit additional physico-chemical and viscous-type terms accounting for hydration stresses between the adsorbed fluid and the clay minerals. In Part II the two-scale model is applied to a bentonitic clay used for engineered barrier of nuclear waste repository. The clay buffer is assumed to have monomodal character with most of the water essentially adsorbed. Further, partial results toward a three-scale thermomechanical macroscopic model including the bulk phase next to the swelling particles are derived by homogenizing the two-scale model with the bulk water. A notable consequence of this three-scale approach is that it provides a rational basis for the appearance of a generalized inter-phase mass transfer between adsorbed and bulk water. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

混合模型试验等效水深截断系统优化设计研究

进行了深海海洋平台混合模型等效水深截断系统优化设计试验研究,优化方法选用混合离散变量模拟退火法,目标函数为截断系统和原系统的静力特性相似程度。以一个转塔式系泊浮式生产系统为例进行了等效水深截断系统优化设计计算。     

Long-term behaviour of the stellar brightness in eclipsing minima of SV Cam

Es wird das zeitliche Verhalten der Helligkeit in den zentralen Bedeckungen beider Komponenten von SV Cam – beobachtet zwischen 1973 und 1980 durch PATKOS – analysiert, um das von Busso u. a. aus Helligkeitsvariationen außerhalb der Bedeckungen abgeleitete Sternaktivitätsmodell für diesen Stern zu testen. Ihre Entdeckung eines Zyklus von ungefähr 10 Jahren bestätigt sich aus den Beobachtungen im Hauptminimum, wogegen aus den Beobachtungen des Nebenminimums eine eindeutige Feststellung der Zykluslänge nicht möglich war. Es ist klar erkennbar, daß der Zyklus von Kurzzeitfluktuationen überlagert wird, welche in charakteristischen Zeiten von einigen Tagen bis hin zu Monaten verlaufen. Diese Fluktuationen sind nicht nur während des Hauptminimums, sondern auch während des Nebenminimums zu beobachten. Korrelationen zwischen den Fluktuationen zu diesen beiden Bahnphasen sprechen dafür, daß die Primärkomponente im System SV Cam den Hauptbeitrag zu den beobachteten Helligkeitsvariationen liefert.     

Autocorrelation function bias owed to a limited number of de-trended observations. Applications to autoregressive models with noise

Analytical expressions were derived for the expectation of the autocorrelation function (ACF) corresponding to lowfrequency least squares fits and deviations from them in the case of a limited number of observations N. A vector of values of the autocovariation function may be obtained by multiplication of a N . N matrix Z (dependent on concrete basic functions used for trend determination) by a vector of the unbiased ACF. Because much computational time is needed to obtain such a matrix, its components are to be computed once for concrete N and basic functions, and then stored as a file. An algorithm is proposed for determining the contribution of the correlated signal to the ‘signal+noise’. The expressions are written for general form of the ACF, and illustrated by the application to autoregressive models. The statistical properties of the model parameters are studied. The method is applied to cataclysmic binaries AM Her and TT Ari. The precise expressions allow us to obtain reliable results and to avoid misinterpretation being possible when using the approximate methods.     

Radial velocities of population II binary stars. I.

Radial velocities for 114 Hipparcos stars, mostly high transverse velocity binaries without previous radial velocity measurements, are published. Measurements are made with the CORAVEL‐type radial velocity spectrometer. The accuracy of measurements is better than 1 km/s. Two stars, BD +30° 2129A and HD 117466AB are found to be radial velocity variables, and three more stars, HD 119515A, HD 131597AB, and HD 153344, are possible radial velocity variables.     

Delineation of precipitation regions using location and atmospheric variables in two Canadian climate regions: the role of attribute selection

The identification of homogeneous precipitation regions is essential in the planning, design and management of water resources systems. Regions are identified using a technique that partitions climate sites into groups based on the similarity of their attributes; the procedure is known as regionalization. In this paper the ability of four attribute sets to form large, coherent precipitation zones is assessed in terms of the regional homogeneity of precipitation statistics and computational efficiency. The outcomes provide guidance for effective attribute selection for future studies in Canada. The attributes under consideration include location parameters (latitude, longitude), distance to major water bodies, site elevation and atmospheric variables modelled at different pressure levels. The analysis is conducted in two diverse climate regions within Canada including the Prairie and the Great Lakes–St Lawrence lowlands regions. The method consists of four main steps: (i) formation of the attribute sets; (ii) determination of the preferred number of regions (selection of the c-value) into which the sites are partitioned; (iii) regionalization of climate sites using the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm; and (iv) validation of regional homogeneity using L-moment statistics. The results of the attribute formation, c-value selection, regionalization and validation processes are presented and discussed in a comparative analysis. Based on the results it is recommended for both regions to use location parameters including latitude, longitude and distance to water bodies (in the Great Lakes region) to form precipitation regions and to consider atmospheric variables for future (climate change) applications of the regionalization procedure.     

A word about the teacher

This is a memorial report on the biography and scientific heritage of M.A. Svechnikov — an outstanding scientist and teacher, the founder of the Ural school of close binary stars and the author of the classification scheme for eclipsing variable stars.     

流场动态地图符号视觉变量分析与应用

随着大数据的发展以及数据观测技术的进步,以动态地图和动态符号的方式进行流场可视化表达具有广泛的应用前景。针对目前流场动态地图符号表达机制研究不足的问题,本文采用粒子系统方法构建了流场动态地图符号表达模型,基于流场的特点,研究了视觉变量的选取对于流场动态表达效果的影响。然后,以海洋流场数据的可视化实现为例进行验证,结果表明可视化效果良好,可以为矢量场动态符号的应用提供参考。     

Regional and species specific sexual reproductive patterns of three zooxanthellate scleractinian corals across the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Sexual reproduction of zooxanthellate scleractinian corals in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) is influenced by the interactive effects of regional and local oceanographic conditions, as well as a variety of other environmental factors. Differences in spatial and temporal gamete development and reproductive patterns of three widespread scleractinian corals of this region—Pocillopora damicornis (branching colony morphology, characterized as hermaphrodite broadcaster), Pavona gigantea (massive colonies, characterized as gonochoric broadcaster/sequential co‐sexually hermaphroditic) and Porites panamensis (encrusting colonies, characterized as gonochoric brooder)—were evaluated at local and regional scales across the ETP. This area extended from the Gulf of California (24°N) to the southern coast of Ecuador (–1°S), including offshore islands, using existing data pooled from prior studies. Predictive models were employed based on environmental variables: sea surface temperature, daylight hours, diffuse attenuation co‐efficient at 490 nm and photosynthetically active radiation. Datasets were extracted from satellite images ( https://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov ) and analysed using WAM_STATIST ver. 6.33® software to obtain monthly average data from each site. The spatial (region, sub‐region and site) and seasonal (wet, dry) variation in reproductive activity (% colonies with gametes) differed among the three species; significant interactions were season × sub‐region for P. damicornis, season × site (sub‐region) for P. gigantea, and season × site for P. panamensis, for which sub‐region was not considered as a factor. The predictive models also suggest that gamete production/maturation of P. damicornis and P. gigantea is influenced by local differences in sea surface temperature and daylight hours. Porites panamensis was not correlated with any environmental variable examined. Variations in local and regional reproductive developmental patterns are likely an acclimatization response by each species imposed by the timing and duration of local stressor events. This analysis has provided insights into the diverse local and regional physical drivers that affect species responses and acclimatization in sexual reproduction across the ETP.