The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
The grain-scale processes of peridotite melting were examined at 1,340°C and 1.5 GPa using reaction couples formed by juxtaposing
pre-synthesized clinopyroxenite against pre-synthesized orthopyroxenite or harzburgite in graphite and platinum-lined molybdenum
capsules. Reaction between the clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene-rich aggregates produces a melt-enriched, orthopyroxene-free,
olivine + clinopyroxene reactive boundary layer. Major and trace element abundance in clinopyroxene vary systematically across
the reactive boundary layer with compositional trends similar to the published clinopyroxene core-to-rim compositional variations
in the bulk lherzolite partial melting studies conducted at similar P–T conditions. The growth of the reactive boundary layer takes place at the expense of the orthopyroxenite or harzburgite and
is consistent with grain-scale processes that involve dissolution, precipitation, reprecipitation, and diffusive exchange
between the interstitial melt and surrounding crystals. An important consequence of dissolution–reprecipitation during crystal-melt
interaction is the dramatic decrease in diffusive reequilibration time between coexisting minerals and melt. This effect is
especially important for high charged, slow diffusing cations during peridotite melting and melt-rock reaction. Apparent clinopyroxene-melt
partition coefficients for REE, Sr, Y, Ti, and Zr, measured from reprecipitated clinopyroxene and coexisting melt in the reactive
boundary layer, approach their equilibrium values reported in the literature. Disequilibrium melting models based on volume
diffusion in solid limited mechanism are likely to significantly underestimate the rates at which major and trace elements
in residual minerals reequilibrate with their surrounding melt.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
When applied to environmental concerns, framing offers a rigorous conceptual and analytic approach with potentially practical significance for dealing with complex issues relevant to geography. The purpose of this article is to introduce framing concepts, typology and modes of analysis to address issues which geographers commonly treat: disputes over land ownership and uses, competition for water resources, cultural clashes over control of territory and resources and the impact of spatial patterns and structures when siting noxious sites. Framing analysis is applied to three cases of environmental conflict in Israel and, more generally, for understanding conflicts revolving around the management of human habitats in relation to the physical environment. 相似文献
Plagioclase ultraphyric basalts (PUBs) with up to 54% plagioclasephenocrysts were dredged in the rift valley and adjacent flanksof the ultraslow-spreading Mohns and Knipovich ridges. The PUBsshow large variations in crystal morphologies and zoning. Thelarge variations suggest that single basalt samples containa mixture of plagioclase crystals that aggregated at differentlevels in the magma conduits. Resorbed crystals and repeatedreverse zones suggest that the magma reservoirs were replenishedand heated several times. Thin concentric zones with melt inclusions,and sharp reductions in the anorthite content of 3–7%,are common between the reverse zones. These zones, and skeletalcrystals with distinctly lower anorthite contents than massivecrystals, are interpreted to be the result of rapid crystalliztionduring strong undercooling. The changes between short periodsof cooling and longer periods with reheating are explained bymultiple advances of crystal-rich magma into cool regions followedby longer periods of gradual magma inflow and temperature increase.The porphyritic basalts are characterizd by more depleted andmore fractionated compositions than the aphyric basalts, withlower (La/Sm)N, K2O and Mg-numbers. This relationship, and theobservation that PUBs are sampled only close to segment centresalong these ridges, suggests that the PUBs formed by higherdegrees of melting and evolved in more long-lived magma reservoirs.We propose that the zoning patterns of plagioclase crystalsand crystal morphologies of these PUBs reflect the developmentand flow of magma through a stacked sill complex-like conduitsystem, whereas the aphyric equivalents represent later flowof magma through the conduit. The formation of voluminous higher-degreemelts may trigger the development of the magma conduits andexplain the generally depleted compositions of PUB magmas. KEY WORDS: basalt; mineral chemistry; MORB; magma mixing; magma chamber; major element相似文献
In distribution areas of the Pekul’neiveem and Chirynai formations customary distinguishable in the Koryak Upland, complicated tectonostratigraphic units are composed of alternating thrust sheets of different lithologic composition and age, which are juxtaposed because of widespread thrust faulting, as is proved by the radiolarian analysis. Nineteen radiolarian assemblages of different age are first established here in the Lower Jurassic-Hauterivian succession of siliceous-volcanogenic sediments. In the Lower Jurassic interval, the lower and upper Hettangian, lower and upper Sinemurian, and Pliensbachian beds are recognized. Paleontological characterization is also presented for the Aalenian (or Toarcian?-Aalenian), upper Bajocian, lower and upper Bathonian, and Callovian beds of the Middle Jurassic. Within the Upper Jurassic, the Oxfordian-early Kimmeridgian, late Kimmeridgian-early Tithonian, Tithonian, and late Tithonian-early Berriasian radiolarian assemblages are distinguished. The late Berriasian-early Valanginian, middle-late Valanginian, and Hauterivian radiolarian assemblages are first recognized or compositionally revised. Radiolarians and lithofacies data are used to correlate the tectonostratigraphic units and individualize the jasper-alkali basaltic (lower Hettangian), chert-terrigenous (Hettangian-Sinemurian), jasper-cherty (Pliensbachian-Aalenian), jasper (Bajocian-Hauterivian), jasper-basaltic (upper Bajocian-Valanginian), Fe-Ti basaltic (upper Bajocian-Bathonian), tuffitejasper-basaltic (Bathonian-Hauterivian), and terrigenous-volcanogenic (Bajocian-Valanginian) sequences. The correlation results are extrapolated into other continental areas flanking the Pacific, i.e., to the western Kamchatka, northern and northwestern coastal areas of the Sea of Okhotsk, where the analogous radiolarian assemblages are characteristic of comparable allochthonous units of terrigenous-siliceous-volcanogenic sediments. 相似文献
There are two fundamental questions this article aims to deal with. First, whether a pre-earthquake strengthening of a large
and heterogeneous building stock (the emphasis here is on building types common in S. Europe), is economically feasible or
not, and second what is the optimal retrofit level for mitigating the seismic risk. To this purpose contemporary decision
making tools, namely cost-benefit and life-cycle cost analyses, are tailored to the needs of the present study, and implemented
with the aid of an ad-hoc developed new software application (COBE06). A method for estimating the reduction in structural
vulnerability due to retrofit is proposed, as well as a methodology to determine the optimum retrofit level using the fragility
curve approach. Finally, the proposed methodology is used in a pilot application that concerns the city of Thessaloniki, and
results are drawn for the feasibility of strengthening the reinforced concrete building stock in this city. 相似文献
Self-diffusion of Si under anhydrous conditions at 1 atm has been measured in natural zircon. The source of diffusant for
experiments was a mixture of ZrO2 and 30Si-enriched SiO2 in 1:1 molar proportions; experiments were run in crimped Pt capsules in 1-atm furnaces. 30Si profiles were measured with both Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and nuclear reaction analysis with the resonant
nuclear reaction 30Si(p,γ)31P. For Si diffusion normal to c over the temperature range 1,350–1,550°C, we obtain an Arrhenius relation D = 5.8 exp(−702 ± 54 kJ mol−1/RT) m2 s−1 for the NRA measurements, which agrees within uncertainty with an Arrhenius relation determined from the RBS measurements
[62 exp(−738 ± 61 kJ mol−1/RT) m2 s−1]. Diffusion of Si parallel to c appears slightly faster, but agrees within experimental uncertainty at most temperatures
with diffusivities for Si normal to c. Diffusion of Si in zircon is similar to that of Ti, but about an order of magnitude faster than diffusion of Hf and two
orders of magnitude faster than diffusion of U and Th. Si diffusion is, however, many orders of magnitude slower than oxygen
diffusion under both dry and hydrothermal conditions, with the difference increasing with decreasing temperature because of
the larger activation energy for Si diffusion. If we consider Hf as a proxy for Zr, given its similar charge and size, we
can rank the diffusivities of the major constituents in zircon as follows: DZr < DSi << DO, dry < DO, ‘wet’. 相似文献
The crystallographic structures of the synthetic cheralite, CaTh(PO4)2, and its homolog CaNp(PO4)2 have been investigated by X-ray diffraction at room temperature. Rietveld analyses showed that both compounds crystallize in the monoclinic system and are isostructural to monazite LnPO4 (Ln = La to Gd). The space group is P21/n (I.T. = 14) with Z = 2. The refined lattice parameters of CaTh(PO4)2 are a = 6.7085(8) Å, b = 6.9160(6) Å, c = 6.4152(6) Å, and β = 103.71(1)° with best fit parameters Rwp = 4.87%, Rp = 3.69% and RB = 3.99%. For CaNp(PO4)2, we obtained a = 6.6509(5) Å, b = 6.8390(3) Å, c = 6.3537(8) Å, and β = 104.12(6)° and Rwp = 6.74%, Rp = 5.23%, and RB = 6.05%. The results indicate significant distortions of bond length and angles of the PO4 tetrahedra in CaTh(PO4)2 and to a lesser extent in CaNp(PO4)2. The structural distortions were confirmed by Raman spectroscopy of CaTh(PO4)2. A comparison with the isostructural compounds LnPO4 (Ln = Ce and Sm) confirmed that the substitution of the large rare earth trivalent cations with Ca2+ and Th4+ introduces a distortion of the PO4 tetrahedra. 相似文献
Monitoring and control of a flotation circuit is mainly based on the information gained by assaying the process slurry lines. In flotation plants, usually an X-ray fluorescence analyzer is used to obtain the on-line assays. This article introduces the visual and near-infrared reflectance spectroscopic analysis of the process slurries as a supplementary method which complements the on-line assay information available from an X-ray fluorescence analyzer. It is shown that the spectral information can be used to accurately predict the element contents in the slurry in between successive XRF analyses. Since the spectral measurements can be taken with high frequency as opposed to the sparse X-ray fluorescence analysis, a practically continuous on-line estimate of the slurry contents is reached. These estimates can be used in the plant control to improve the overall performance of the circuits and to yield also economical savings. Additionally, the frequent monitoring of the grades can provide means to eliminate rapid disturbances in the circuits, thus improving the stability of the process. 相似文献