一次冷锋过境过程的中尺度通量观测

根据Taylor假定 ,通过对铁塔定点观测冷锋过境湍流资料的谱分析 ,分离出其中尺度过程 ,从而计算出其中尺度通量 .计算结果的分析表明 ,在强背景风场条件下 ,湍流动量输送占据绝对优势 ;当背景风较弱时 ,中尺度动量通量不能被忽视 ,它甚至强于湍流动量通量 .而中尺度感热通量的强弱受多种因素的制约 .总的说来 ,冷锋后的中尺度感热通量大大强于湍流感热通量 .对于湍流通量参数化计算的理论分析表明 ,在较长的时间尺度进行湍流通量参数化时 ,有必要考虑因中尺度扰动而产生的修正 .合理的通量计算参数化方案需要全面包含湍流通量、中尺度通量以及中尺度过程对湍流通量的修正     

北部湾中小尺度灾害性强对流天气系统的次声/电磁波预警系统的研制与机理探讨

自行研制了次声阵与单台雷暴次声电磁波报警仪,它针对雷暴系统的夹卷过程中的电荷各界与释放和气流电磁特性与声学特性,利用其辐射电磁波和次声波作用源地与强度的信息指标,三年来对大于１７ｍ／ｓ（阵性）以上雷暴大风系统与过程无一漏报。１９９７年对７次灾害性雷雨大风,全部提前３￣６ｈ报出,减少了７千万元以上的损失。分析发现,雷暴系统孕育期间前兆次声信息,这与过去所得到的国内外雷暴成熟期的次声信息在频响特性上不     

2016年河南省一次大范围强对流天气成因分析

基于Himawari-8卫星资料、雷达监测资料、区域自动站和常规观测资料及ERA-Interim再分析资料,对2016年6月5日河南省大范围强对流天气的环流背景、触发条件及对流系统演变特征进行了研究。结果表明:华北冷涡背景下,高空冷平流配合低层暖脊发展、对流有效位能值激增,为中尺度对流系统发展提供了不稳定条件,地面辐合线、冷池是触发机制。河南省西南部位于高能区、不同温湿性质气团交绥区,中高层干冷空气侵入、中层以下干绝热递减率为风雹天气提供了可能;河南省中部、河南省南部位于大气可降水量大值区,深厚的湿层、较低的抬升凝结高度有利于产生强降水。高层辐散、低层辐合的抽吸作用导致豫西南上升运动强盛,雷暴高压产生的变压风增强了动力抬升,中小尺度动力辐合促使强对流回波发展。风雹天气产生于中尺度对流系统前侧云顶亮温梯度大值区,强降水出现在云顶亮温低值中心附近。雷达产品分析表明,强回波悬垂、三体散射与快速移动的弓形回波、阵风锋和后侧入流急流对提前预警冰雹、雷暴大风有很好的指示意义。925 hPa 12 h显著增温区、对流有效位能高值区和冷池出流与暖空气交绥区是强对流发展的潜势区,湿球温度0℃层高度与冰雹关系密切。     

北京“7.21”特大暴雨高分辨率模式分析场及预报分析

2012年7月21-22日,61年以来最强降水袭击北京,北京大部分地区出现大暴雨,局部特大暴雨,过程雨量大、雨势强、范围广,造成了严重影响。此次强降水配置较为典型,业务预报提前指示出了此次过程,但预报结果存在强度偏弱,峰值偏晚等偏差。在对此次大暴雨进行综合分析的基础上,利用中国自动气象站与NOAA气候预测中心卫星反演降水资料CMORPH(Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique)产品融合的逐时降水量网格数据资料作为观测,着重对北京市气象局新的快速更新循环同化和预报系统(BJ-RUC v2.0)的3 km高分辨率模式分析场和预报场进行了检验与分析,以期通过对中尺度模式预报性能的了解,为暴雨可预报性问题提供进一步的参考。研究结果表明,此次特大暴雨过程水汽条件极佳,降水区域较为集中,呈现西南一东北走向的中尺度雨带特征。利用常规检验评分对预报降水的时间序列进行检验发现,预报降水在时间上滞后,降水强度偏弱,存在偏西南的位置误差,并且未能反映降水系统的线状特征。进一步利用检验连续降水区域定量降水预报的CRA(contiguous rain area)方法,对预报误差进行分解表明,整体降水(5 mm/h)的主要误差来自于位置和形状误差;而在暴雨(20 mm/h)的预报中,降水强度的偏差占误差的主要部分。最后结合对预报场大尺度环流和物理量的诊断(水汽条件和不稳定条件),分析探讨了此次极端暴雨预报不佳的原因。     

2000年夏季河南大暴雨的预报特征

以 2 0 0 0年 7月河南省 10站以上连成片、日雨量≥ 10 0mm且降水中心日雨量 >2 0 0mm的 4次大暴雨过程为样本 ,从天气形势、水汽条件、不稳定度和中小尺度等方面进行了分析 ,并辅以部分物理量计算 ,进而揭示出大暴雨过程的部分预报特征     

卫星遥感地表植被及其在华南暴雨中尺度数值模拟中的应用试验

将我国植被资料和NCAR资料分别用于非静力平衡中尺度模式MM5, 对1998年5月23~24日华南暴雨进行数值模拟试验, 比较其对降水量和动力热力场预报的影响, 结果表明, 当网格格距为45 km时, 二者差别很小, 当网格格距减小到5~15 km, 预报降水量最大值增加了12%~14%, 更接近观测值, 同时对低层大气热力动力结构也有一定影响。     

Satellite-Derived ERS scatterometer sea-surface wind-stress curl in the southwestern Indian Ocean

Surface marine wind data base from ERS-1 scatterometer has been processed to define the characteristic seasonal distribution of wind-stress curl throughout the southwestern Indian Ocean between January and December 1994. A compact model to obtain satellite-derived wind-stress curl fields on smaller scales than previously available is proposed and evaluated. The results indicate the strong capability of the ERS-1 scatterometer to monitor wind-driven variations in the mesoscale ocean patterns. To cite this article: M. Petit et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

The spectral composition of fluxes and variances over land and sea out to the mesoscale

We discuss the accuracy requirements for measuring mesoscale (roughly horizontal scales > 10 km or 5 to 10 times the planetary boundary-layer (PBL) depth) fluxes in the convective PBL, and the ability of current research aircraft to achieve this accuracy. We conclude that aircraft equipped with inertial nagivation systems capable of < 3 km hr⁻¹ navigational accuracy are able to resolve mesoscale fluctuations in velocity, and thus variances and fluxes on the mesoscale. We then discuss measurements of velocity and scalar spectra, and cospectra of vertical velocity with horizontal velocity components and scalars, obtained from long flight legs with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Electra aircraft over the boreal forest of Canada in summer during the BOreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS), over the tropical Pacific Ocean from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE), and over the East China Sea during wintertime cold-air outbreaks from the Air Mass Transformation Experiment (AMTEX). Each of these studies has somewhat different forcings and boundary conditions, so we can compare their consequences on the spectra and cospectra. On average, we found no significant scalar or momentum fluxes for horizontal scales > 10 km. We also develop a simple model based on observed thermal structure to explain the phase angle between vertical velocity and the along-wind horizontal velocity as a function of height, which shows good agreement with the observed phase angle in AMTEX. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

一条中尺度雨带的多普勒雷达回波特征及环境条件分析

该文利用3830/CC单多普勒雷达加密资料和Micaps客观分析资料, 对2002年8月22日在副高外围偏南气流影响下, 对流回波发展形成中尺度NNE — SSW向带状回波的演变及其环境条件进行分析。结果表明:带状回波是造成这次中尺度雨带的直接影响系统, 偏南暖湿气流源源不断沿着带状输送, 利于带状回波的维持和发展; 强降水主要发生在低层风随高度顺转 (暖平流)、高空有急流和出现逆风区的阶段, 副高外围偏南气流为带状回波的形成和发展提供了水汽和热力条件, 而高空倒槽为其提供了动力条件, 湿位涡的分布特征较好地说明了这一点, 带状回波和雨带出现在斜压不稳定和正压稳定而中低层为负涡度环流的潜在不稳定区中。     

Numerical simulations of mesoscale variability in the Straits of Florida

The circulation in the Straits of Florida is dominated by the throughflow of the Florida Current, as modified by tidal flows, responses to atmospheric cold front and extratropical cyclone (easterly wave and tropical cyclone) passages in winter (summer), and intrinsic mesoscale variability due to instabilities of the Florida Current front and jet system. Monthly meanders of the Florida Current, persistent oceanic fronts associated with the Florida Current’s baroclinic jet, and frontal eddies shed weekly by the Florida Current are the primary mesoscale features. A limited area model (Princeton Ocean Model: POM) is implemented to cover the Straits of Florida with a curvilinear grid that resolves the mesoscale structure, especially where the baroclinic flow is locked to steep topography in a 90 degree bend of the Straits. Florida Current cyclonic frontal eddies are spawned spontaneously, grow as they translate downstream, interact with shelf waters, and exhibit the same space-time attributes that characterize their observed counterparts, as evidenced by satellite imagery, shipboard synoptic mapping, coastal HF radar, and moored time series. Here, a deeper understanding is attempted for the frontal eddy kinematics and dynamics by examining, for example, their sensitivity to model parameter values, synoptic versus monthly atmospheric forcing, and other determinants of the flow. The mean flow shears are concentrated along the shelfbreak, where these frontal eddies are trapped, favoring the formation of the eddies by mean flow instabilities. In particular, it is found that the Florida Current frontal eddies exist independent of the wind-forcing considered (i.e., no winds, monthly winds, and synoptic (but not mesoscale) winds); however, they are modulated by the synoptic wind-forcing. Nevertheless, intriguingly, the frontal eddies have the same weekly time scale as the weather cycle.