对引发密云泥石流的局地暴雨的分析和诊断

2002年8月1日晚北京东北部密云县发生了降雨量达到280.2 mm的局地短历时特大暴雨，并引发了洪水和泥石流。卫星云图分析表明，它是由一个中-β尺度对流系统在北京北部山区停留造成的。TBB图的等值线密集区和上冲云顶对暴雨落区有指示意义。大尺度环流诊断表明，暴雨前一天存在较深厚的下沉运动，其伴随的逆温层抑制对流的发生，使不稳定能量得以积累。各种稳定参数的计算结果证实了这一能量的积累过程。暴雨当天，下沉运动转为微弱的上升运动，使对流的发生成为可能。大尺度水汽场的诊断表明，北京处在西太平洋副热带高压边缘的高温高湿气流的控制下，有很强的水汽输送。地面中尺度分析表明，中尺度低压和辐合线是对流的触发系统，北京地区北部处于中尺度低压东部暖湿气流的辐合区中，在有利的地形条件下使密云县西部山区产生了局地特大暴雨。     

中山市"9·16"特大暴雨分析

本文用各种气象观测资料对2002年9月16日发生在中山的特大暴雨进行了分析.结果表明,这次暴雨发生的主要原因是地面低压环流系统受到西风槽、切变线和低层弱冷空气侵入的影响而在中山附近加强引起的,同时这次特大暴雨降水具有明显的中尺度特征.     

Slab rollback suggested by latest Miocene to Pliocene forearc stress and migration of volcanic front in southern Kyushu, northern Ryukyu Arc

The northern Ryukyu Arc has active backarc rift, neutral-stress forearc, and active accretionary prism. The Okinawa Trough has been shaped by the episodic rifting in the backarc. Paleostresses were inferred in this study from mesoscale faults in Neogene forearc sediments called the Miyazaki Group, southeast Kyushu in the northern Ryukyu Arc. The forearc stress changed from compressional to extensional from the latest Miocene through Early Pliocene time. The stress history is concordant with the transition in tectonic regime from folding to rifting in the backarc. The transition in the stress state occurred simultaneously also with trenchward movement of the volcanic front. These phenomena suggest that the subducting slab under southern Kyushu became steeper in the Early Pliocene. Extensional tectonics ceased sometime in the late Pliocene or early to mid-Pleistocene, concordant with the counterclockwise change of subducting direction of the Philippine Sea Plate.     

江淮气旋发生发展中尺度系统特征数值模拟研究

本文应用中尺度模式MM5对发生在江淮流域的气旋进行了数值模拟，并用模式输出的高时空分辨率、动力协调资料、HUBEX试验期间的加密观测资料进行江淮气旋的中尺度诊断研究。结果表明：从大尺度角度看，江淮气旋的生成可分为静止锋上的波动和倒槽锋生两种类型，但从中尺度角度分析，它们具有如下共同特点：（1）它们的生成源地均在大别山西侧，大别山地形均使得气旋发展增强，移速减慢。（2）在发展阶段，700hPa层以下的温压场的斜压结构是气旋发展的重要因素，当冷平流与暖平流呈现西北－东南的偶极子型时，气旋发展；当冷暖平流偶极子呈东西型时，气旋发展进入成熟期。（3）气旋中的中尺度雨带与Wave-CISK湿条件对称不稳定区有密切关系，辐合上升区出现在气旋暖锋前部和冷锋后部50－100km范围内。     

Sea-Breeze Modification Of The Growth Of A Marine Internal Boundary Layer

A numerical mesoscale model is used to make a high-resolutionsimulation of the marine boundary layer in the Persian Gulf, duringconditions of offshore flow from Saudi Arabia. A marine internal boundary layer(MIBL) and a sea-breeze circulation (SBC) are found to co-exist. The sea breeze develops in the mid-afternoon, at which time its frontis displaced several tens of kilometres offshore. Between the coastand the sea-breeze system, the MIBL that occurs is consistent with a picture described in the existing literature. However, the MIBL isperturbed by the SBC, the boundary layer deepening significantly seaward of the sea-breeze front. Our analysis suggests that thisstrong, localized deepening is not a direct consequence offrontal uplift, but rather that the immediate cause is the retardation of theprevailing, low-level offshore windby the SBC. The simulated boundary-layer development can be accounted for by using a simple 1D Lagrangian model of growth driven by the surface heatflux. This model is obtained as a straightforward modification ofan established MIBL analytic growth model.     

由大尺度观测提取中尺度信息的可能性研究

利用浅水方程模式和变分四维同化方法对由大尺度观测提取中尺度信息的可能性进行了模拟试验研究。试验的初始场是在平直气流上叠加一个半径为 5倍格距的圆形涡旋。分别设定观测点的间距是 5 ,7和 9倍格距 ,观测的时间间隔分别是 1,2和 3h ,同化时间为 6h或 12h ,考察同化产生的初始场。试验结果是 :观测点的间距是 5倍格距时 ,由观测给出的分析场不能反映涡旋的基本特征 ,而在同化产生的初始场中 ,涡旋的基本结构清楚 ,但强度有所削弱。增加观测次数或者延长同化时间 ,可以改善同化的结果。对于移动较快的系统 ,同化的结果较好。当观测点的间距是 9倍格距时 ,同化的结果与分析场相比已无明显改进。     

中纬度中尺度对流系统研究的若干进展

中尺度对流系统（MCSs)与许多严重的气象灾害，特别是我国的暴雨洪涝密切相关。本文主要对中纬度中尺度对流系统研究的若干进展作了简要综述，其中包括：MCSs的时空分布；MCCs的平均生成环境；MCSs的组织模型和逆尺度演变；发展中的MCSs与其环境的相互作用；MCSs的动力学和不稳定度；MCSs的数值模拟；MβCS和MγCS的观测和模拟；MCSs的概念模型；MCSs的结构和机制研究的观测计划。我们希望通过本文有助于进一步了解有关中纬度MCSs的发生、发展、结构、机制以及概念模型等研究的若干进展。     

Mapping mesoscale currents by optimal interpolation of satellite radiometer and altimeter data

 Mapping the mesoscale surface velocity stream function by combining estimates of surface height from satellite altimetry and surface currents from sequential infrared (sea-surface temperature) imagery using optimal interpolation is described. Surface currents are computed from infrared images by the method of maximum cross-correlations (MCC) and are combined with altimeter sea-level anomaly data from the TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS satellites. The analysis method was applied to 6 years of data from the East Australian Current region. The covariance of velocity and sea-level data is consistent with the statistical assumptions of homogeneous, isotropic turbulence, with typical length scales of order 220 km and time scales of 10 days in this region. Augmenting the analysis of altimeter data with MCC velocity observations improves the resolution of the surface currents, especially near the Australian coast, and demonstrates that the two data sources provide consistent and complementary observations of the surface mesoscale circulation. The volume of MCC data is comparable to that from a satellite altimeter, but with a more variable distribution of spatial and temporal resolution. In concert with altimetry, satellite radiometer velocimetry represents a technique useful for retrospective analysis of currents from high-resolution satellite radiometer data-sets. Received: 3 July 2001 / Accepted: 16 November 2001     

The temporal evolution of a geostrophic flow in a rotating stratified basin

A laboratory study in a rotating stratified basin examines the instability and long time evolution of the geostrophic double gyre introduced by the baroclinic adjustment to an initial basin-scale step height discontinuity in the density interface of a two-layer fluid. The dimensionless parameters that are important in determining the observed response are the Burger number S=R/R₀ (where R is the baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation and R₀ is the basin radius) and the initial forcing amplitude (H₁ is the upper layer depth). Experimental observations and a numerical approach, using contour dynamics, are used to identify the mechanisms that result in the dominance of nonlinear behaviour in the long time evolution, τ>2⁻¹ (where τ is time scaled by the inertial period T_I=2π/f). When the influence of rotation is moderate (0.25≤S≤1), the instability mechanism is associated with the finite amplitude potential vorticity (PV) perturbation introduced when the double gyre is established. On the other hand, when the influence of rotation is strong (S≤0.1), baroclinic instability contributes to the nonlinear behaviour. Regardless of the mechanism, nonlinearity acts to transfer energy from the geostrophic double gyre to smaller scales associated with an eddy field. In the lower layer, Ekman damping is pronounced, resulting in the dissipation of the eddy field after only 40T_I. In the upper layer, where dissipative effects are weak, the eddy field evolves until it reaches a symmetric distribution of potential vorticity within the domain consisting of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddy pairs, after approximately 100T_I. The functional dependence of the characteristic eddy lengthscale L_E on S is consistent with previous laboratory studies on continuously forced geostrophic turbulence. The cyclonic and anticyclonic eddy pairs are maintained until viscous effects eventually dissipate all motion in the upper layer after approximately 800T_I. The outcomes of this study are considered in terms of their contribution to the understanding of the energy pathways and transport processes associated with basin-scale motions in large stratified lakes.